Brief admin note

Alright, I’m outta here.  I won’t have a computer with me, so no posting until I get back.

Once again, there is a Sunday night game, so the window for Mumme Poll ballots will be Monday 9:00 AM to Tuesday 9:00 PM.  My ballot will be posted Tuesday and the Week 10 standings will be published Wednesday.

Everyone have a great rest of the week.

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First (and last) thoughts on the WLOCP

I’m leaving later today to join the caravan on I-95, so I’m getting my say in a day earlier this week.

First, let’s get the obligatory picture out of the way:

Urban Meyer still wishes he'd have thought of this first.

OK, now we can move on to this year.  For the most part, anyway.  Here’s what I see as the keys to this year’s game.

1. Withstand the early burst. I don’t think the Gators want to answer the Celebration with some sort of stunt of their own.  I think what Meyer and the boys want to do instead is to come out and overwhelm Georgia from the opening kick with offensive speed, special teams and the unfortunate early turnover – something akin to what they were able to accomplish in Knoxville earlier this year.  Georgia can’t be looking up at the short end of a 21-0 score at the end of the first quarter and expect to make that up.
2. The long drive is your friend. I’m going to say something sacrilegious here:  as much as I love the 68 yard touchdown runs and the long bombs to Green, I’m going to love the fourteen-play, eight plus-minute drives even more this Saturday.  The more Stafford stays on the field, the less Tebow does.  That’s a win-win in my book.
3. Make the freakin’ tackles. By far the most troubling thing from the LSU game was the shoddy tackling we saw from the defense.  Reshad Jones – I hope – has been frequently reminded this week that kill shots are only fine if they actually bring the ball carrier down.
4. Sweat the small stuff. Special teams and turnovers.  Florida blocks punts.  Brandon James is the best punt returner Georgia will see this season.  The Gators are +10 in turnover margin.  Georgia needs to avoid losing any of these battles to win this game.
5. Make Tebow throw the ball to beat you. I suspect the Gator offensive plan is to show the GPOOE™ the runner to open up the run for Demps and Rainey and to sell that funky bend-the-knee play action pass he does well.  The Dawg defense can’t bite on this; job #1 is to get a handle on the Gator running game and dictate when Florida has to throw.  The tackles have to do much better this week than they did against LSU’s Scott.
6. Take advantage of the Florida secondary. I’m still not convinced they’re world beaters back there.  They haven’t really been tested much this season by an offense that can run and throw, since LSU got run out of the Swamp early and couldn’t stick to a balanced offensive game plan.  Bobo needs to follow up his brilliant game last week with another jewel.

As for the psychology of this game, I think it’s a little overblown, although, in a way, I hope it’s not.  If Florida comes out too geeked up as a result of having the Celebration pushed in its face all week (hell, all year), that could backfire on it.  But the real reason I don’t think it will matter too much is because of an excellent point Paul Westerdawg made here after last year’s WLOCP – by pulling that, Richt essentially wrote a check for this year’s game that this team is going to have to cash.  He’s raised the stakes for his players and I can only hope that he’s using that to get the team ready.  Given the fact that he’s been pushing most of the right buttons this year (except for the Blackout, ugh), I feel pretty good about that.

My bottom line for this week is the same as last week’s.  If both teams show up to play, I think Stafford makes the difference and walks away with his second win in Jacksonville.  And when’s the last time we could say that about a Georgia quarterback?

2008 Las Vegas Sports Consultants Top 30, Week 9

The top seven remain unchanged from last week.

Rank	Team	Rating	Previous	Notes
1	Southern Cal	113.6	1	Had to work at Arizona.
2	Texas	112.2	2	Hung tough in tight game.
3	Oklahoma	111.9	3	Offensive show at K-State.
3	Florida	111.9	4	Scoring machine over Kentucky.
5	Penn State	110.9	5	May have leaped biggest hurdle.
6	Georgia	108.9	6	Huge road win at LSU.
7	Alabama	108.5	7	Tide stays unbeaten with key road win.
8	Missouri	107.4	10	Happy homecoming over Buffaloes.
9	Texas Tech	107.3	8	Ready for shootout with Texas.
10	Oklahoma State	105.9	11	No shame in defeat at Texas.
11	Ohio State	105.6	9	Losses to #1 and #5.
12	LSU	104.7	12	Ouch…. Bitten by Bulldogs.
13	Texas Christian	103.6	13	Horned Frogs are hard to handle.
14	California	103.4	16	Host the Ducks before trip to SoCal.
15	Oregon	103.0	20	Boat raced Devils in their backyard.
16	Brigham Young	102.9	15	Letdown from loss at TCU…
17	Arizona	102.6	18	Gave Trojans a tussle.
18	West Virginia	102.5	19	Come from behind win over Auburn.
19	Utah	102.3	17	Heading to New Mexico.
20	Kansas	102.1	13	Couldn’t contain Red Raiders.
21	Florida State	101.9	27	Seminoles handle the Hokies.
22	Boise State	101.6	22	Broncos earned tough win at San Jose.
23	Tulsa	101.2	23	Had to rally for win Sunday night.
24	South Carolina	101.0	25	Host the Volunteers this week.
25	Oregon State	100.9	26	Arizona State comes calling.
26	North Carolina	100.5	NR	Tar Heels continue solid play.
27	South Florida	100.0	23	Louisville had the answers.
28	Boston College	99.9	20	Stubbed their toe at North Carolina.
28	Nebraska	99.9	NR	Steady move up for Huskers.
30	Michigan State	99.8	NR	Spartans own solid 7-2 mark.

Interestingly, these guys see Florida as only a three point pick on Saturday.

LSU was seemingly undervalued early in the season.  Now it seems a little pricey at #12.  On the other side of the coin, the Utes and Boise aren’t getting much love.