Final thoughts on Georgia – Auburn

First, I’ve rounded up the usual suspects with their game breakdowns:  Jody, Doug and Kyle.  Read ’em all.

That’s what I did.  But you know what?  Even after sifting through all the data and analysis I still feel a bit gun shy trying to assess Georgia’s chances tomorrow.  Maybe David Hale has the right approach:  all we can do is ask questions, grasshopper.

Well, running with the metaphor a little further, if you did the gun to the head thing and ordered me to blog something about what I think about the game, here’s what I’d come up with for you:

  1. The one truly excellent unit that will see the field tomorrow is the Georgia offense.  Looking at the others, both Georgia’s and Auburn’s defenses started out well this season, but have sagged lately, and Auburn’s offense never got going.  If there aren’t any hiccups or surprises, on paper that should be enough to generate at least a two-touchdown difference in the score.  On paper.
  2. Georgia’s special teams can’t be as putrid as they were against Kentucky.  That should be the case, if for no other reason than I wouldn’t expect to see Prince Miller returning punts tomorrow.  (How about Knowshon, though?)  And the weather during the game is predicted to be considerably less windy than were the conditions in Lexington, which should help.  One troubling thing here:  Richt’s confidence in Blair Walsh seems to be dwindling, as evidenced by his decision last week to pass on a 50-yard field goal attempt with the wind at his kicker’s back to go for it on fourth and six.  Three weeks ago, I doubt that’s the call.
  3. The turnover margin battle favors Georgia.  Auburn certainly ain’t no Florida here; it’s not even a Kentucky.  The trick here is to force the Tigers into a passing game.  Ole Miss accomplished that and was rewarded with three picks.  I’d much rather see Burns trying to hurt the Dawgs with his arm than with his feet.  On top of that, Massaquoi isn’t going to fumble the ball two series in a row this week.

That’s all I’ve got.  If Georgia can just hold serve in all the other areas of the game, its offense is more than good enough to win the game comfortably.  If it can’t… unlike last week, this is a rivalry game against an opponent which has little left to play for this year except for its last two regular season games.  Auburn may not have proven itself to be a better team statistically than the one Georgia played last week, but it’s going to come in with more emotion.  If Georgia implodes in certain areas of the game as it did in Lexington, that emotion may be enough to make the difference.  I’ll split the baby and predict that the road team in this series comes though again, although it won’t be especially pretty.  Georgia wins by no more than a touchdown.

9 Comments

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9 responses to “Final thoughts on Georgia – Auburn

  1. Senator,

    Great minds… blah blah blah.

    http://hunkerdowndawg.blogspot.com/2008/11/georgia-auburn-2008.html

    I have a time stamp that hopefully proves I didn’t plagiarize. I swear I also almost wrote that MoMass would not fumble twice again – ever, but I was afraid I would jinx him.

    Go DAWGS!

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  2. I think I should probably be swearing that I didn’t plagiarize you. 😉

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  3. truck

    I don’t think Richt’s confidence in Blair Walsh is dwindling, as much as that he doesn’t want to put the kid in a position to fail. In other words, he might’ve thought Walsh could’ve made the kick, he was probably also concerned with the mental effect a potential miss would have had on his true freshman kicker. Remember, we still may need this kid to win a game for us this year, and if/when that happens, we’ll need him to have as much confidence as he can muster.

    In my humble opinion, of course.

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  4. craigc283

    What I’ve noticed with AU this year is that their D plays well in the first half and then either gets tired or gives up towards the end of the game due to their lack of offense. If we allow Burns and the offense to move the ball and have success early, it will be a four quarter nail biter.

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  5. Pingback: DawgsOnline » I have no idea what to expect.

  6. Greg

    Kentucky has won two SEC games and both were by 1 point over teams(Ark and MSU) that have won one game in conference. Their other wins have been over Louisville(1 win in the Big Least), Norfolk State, Middle Tennessee State and Western Kentucky.

    It’s hard to believe Auburn can be any worse than that. It’ll probably be a nailbiter. There’s nothing to indicate that UGA will put together a complete game(Offense, Defense and Special Teams) this year. Maybe we won’t need to for AU, GT and Michigan State. If we go 11-2 this year, it sure doesn’t seem like it’s going to feel the same as last year.

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  7. Ally

    “If we go 11-2 this year, it sure doesn’t seem like it’s going to feel the same as last year.”

    Agreed. For me, that train left the station during the first quarter of the Bama game.

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  8. I cannot believe I am this unexcited about a team that is currently 8-2. Watching the game right now, I see why. 5 personal fouls already, uninspired play, a block FG, explosions in the red zone. *sigh*

    Also, as someone predicted, there was a 4th and 7 where a long FG try might have been possible but we went for it (and failed horribly). What I want to know about that 4th down try is this: if the plan was to go for it on 4th, why was the previous play such a worthless pile of crap that amounted to running it straight up the middle into tons of defenders for a 2 yard loss?

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  9. This is what I am referring to. After driving from our own 25, here’s our implosion:

    =============
    1st and 10 at AUB 30 Knowshon Moreno rush for 9 yards to the Aub 21.

    2nd and 1 at AUB 21 Georgia penalty 5 yard false start accepted.

    2nd and 6 at AUB 26 Richard Samuel rush for a loss of 1 yard to the Aub 27.

    3rd and 7 at AUB 27 Knowshon Moreno rush for a loss of 2 yards to the Aub 29.

    4th and 9 at AUB 29 Matthew Stafford pass incomplete to A.J. Green.

    =============

    The problem is, this kinda of junk happens multiple times per week. 😦

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