Over at The National Championship Issue, Ed Gunther has decided to wade into one of the toughest issues of the day:
… If a defense holds an offense to 3 points, is it because they’re a good defense, or is it because they played a bad offense? At the same time, if an offense scores 70, is it because they’re good or because the D is bad? How do you know whether you’re watching good defense or bad offense, or whether you’re watching bad defense or good offense?
Good questions. No, I mean really good questions. This is the heart of the whole which-is-better-the-SEC-or-the-Big XII debate. I’d love to see a statistical study that addresses this. Unfortunately, Ed brings me down almost immediately.
I’m pretty convinced that statistically, there’s no way to definitively tell.
Damn! However, he still thinks there’s some areas worth exploring.
But I’ve started to work towards a method to sort out some of the shades of grey, distinguishing over the course of a whole season where the good and bad offenses and defenses are.
Where he’s going with this is pretty logical. In essence, he’s going to weigh a team’s performance against its opponents against each opponent’s overall statistical performance for the season. There are charts galore worth looking at, although as he notes, the initial results pretty much do little more than track the general rankings.
I think what is missing so far from his study – and it may be coming, since Ed makes it clear that this is a work in progress – is some sort of strength of schedule factor. If you take a look at his breakdown of Texas Tech’s season, you can see how much the Red Raiders feasted on the likes of meaningless opponents like Eastern Washington. On the other hand, those numbers against the likes of Texas and Oklahoma State would seem to be more revealing of the worthiness of Leach’s squad.
Anyway, it’s a labor of love, a good start and worth your time to read. I’m looking forward to seeing where he takes it.
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UPDATE: Take a look at the defensive rankings of the teams that each of the Heisman Trophy finalists have faced.