An early strength of schedule question

Every once in a while, I’ll go take a look at Phil Steele’s site to see if he’s got anything posted of interest.

What I came across is his ranking of 2009 schedules based on the NCAA’s criteria of opponents’ wins and losses.  I’ve always been less than impressed with this methodology (and to be fair, Steele has too).  Here’s one example why.

Look at Florida’s schedule for this year:

Sep. 5 Charleston So
Sep. 12 Troy
Sep. 19 Tennessee
Sep. 26 at Kentucky
Oct. 3
Oct. 10 at LSU
Oct. 17 Arkansas
Oct. 24 at Miss St
Oct. 31 Georgia
Nov. 7 Vanderbilt
Nov. 14 at S Carolina
Nov. 21 Florida Int’l
Nov. 28 Florida St

And here’s Georgia’s:

Sep. 5 at Oklahoma St
Sep. 12 S Carolina
Sep. 19 at Arkansas
Sep. 26 Arizona St
Oct. 3 LSU
Oct. 10 at Tennessee
Oct. 17 at Vanderbilt
Oct. 24
Oct. 31 Florida (Jacksonv’lle)
Nov. 7 Tenn Tech
Nov. 14 at Auburn
Nov 21 Kentucky
Nov. 28 at Georgia Tech

Right now, Steele has those ranked as rough equivalents, the #43 (Georgia’s) and #44 (Florida’s) schedules in the country. And here’s what the toughest schedule of any SEC team looks like – it’s South Carolina’s #4 ranked schedule.

Sep. 3 at NC State ESPN
Sep. 12 at Georgia
Sep. 19 Florida Atl
Sep. 24 Mississippi
Oct. 3 S Caro St
Oct. 10 Kentucky
Oct. 17 at Alabama
Oct. 24 Vanderbilt
Oct. 31 at Tennessee
Nov. 3 at Arkansas
Nov. 14 Florida
Nov. 21
Nov. 28 Clemson

Of Florida’s and South Carolina’s, which schedule seems more similar to Georgia’s?


Filed under Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water, SEC Football

9 responses to “An early strength of schedule question

  1. The Realist

    The only potential hiccup in Florida’s schedule is Oct. 24 in Starkvegas. They always seem to get lost on their way to that game and never show up. Otherwise, Florida State at home, capping a non-conference slate featuring Charleston Southern, Troy, and FIU? Oooh, cupcakes, nom nom nom. The only game on the schedule that looks as difficult as at Okie State is at LSU, and right now, I think Okie State is the tougher matchup.

    I’m pretty sure Auburn is at home this year. But, at Okie State, at Tech, at Arkansas, at Tennessee… damn.


  2. godawg

    I’d take either of those schedules over the Dawg’s. SC #4? That’s crazy…


  3. Ally

    #43? What a crock. I think this is a little more accurate:

    And from a gaytor fan no less…


  4. Dog in Fla

    Good thing they didn’t let the NCAA determine the winner of WWII because early on the Axis kicked the ass of a lot more countries than the Allies ended up doing although the Allies did peak at tournament time.


  5. Tom

    All three play four of them – Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, and Arkansas. So those are a wash.

    Then you’ve got the matchups with the other two: who would you rather play – UF and UGA, UF and SCar, or UGA & SCar? South Carolina pulls ahead there, since they’re the easiest of that bunch.

    Other SEC = UF @ LSU & @ Miss. State, UGA @ Auburn & vs LSU, and SCar @ Alabama & vs Ole Miss. More bad news for South Carolina, and I’d give the edge to UGA over UF, since Auburn is probably going to be better than Miss. St.

    Then as far as nonconferece goes, you’ve got UF with three cupcakes and FSU; SCar with two cupcakes, Clemson, and NC State; and UGA with OK State, Arizona State, GA Tech, and a cupcake. UGA makes up ground on SCar and their schedules come out about even.

    The Gators should be ashamed of this nonconference bunch. Pathetic.


  6. MacAttack

    We will be lucky to win 9 games this year

    Our QB spot will drop, our RB’s will drop big time, and our WR’s will be average outside of Green


    • Paul

      Waaah waaahhh wahhhh.

      Let’s play the games, enjoy the moments during the season, and not get caught up in “schedule watching” like I found myself guilty of last year.

      I thought UT/Aub/ASU were going to be tough games. Turns out all 3 teams, who were supposed to be a large chunk of our schedule, were very poor last year.

      Who had Alabama rising from the ashes to that degree? And before you raise your hand, remember the UL-M egg laid in 2007.

      I understand we need something to feast on during the offseason. I just wish I had the willpower to stay away from the Blawgosphere so I would actually enjoy the ride and not get caught up in the hype/”lucky to win 9 games” rut that I did last year.


  7. ugafish22

    “We will be lucky to win 9 games this year

    Our QB spot will drop, our RB’s will drop big time, and our WR’s will be average outside of Green

    If OL, TE, DL, and LB play improves like I think they will, then that could more than make up for whatever drop we see in the positions you speak of.