If you want to have some fun this morning, Jerry Hinnen has linked to this post at an FSU blog which lists a bunch of over/under numbers for regular season win totals this year that’s worth a peek.
There are eight SEC schools listed (I tried to find the rest, but was unable to), along with where Vegas breaks the wins:
- Alabama, 9.5
- Auburn, 7.5
- Florida, 11
- Georgia, 8.5
- LSU, 8.5
- Mississippi, 9
- South Carolina, 7
- Tennessee, 7
First of all, looking at that, if Chizik winds up winning more games than Junior this year, there are going to be a lot of people laughing their asses off at season’s end.
Anyway, the fun part is handicapping the handicappers. Jerry gives it his very good shot here. It’s a fun read and makes you focus on the schedule to see where those wins are going to be squeezed from. Of course, you still have to factor the impact of injuries and historical trends into the mix.
So what do I think? I think Jerry’s right about that South Carolina bet. I don’t think that as much will go right on offense as the ‘Cocks hope and that schedule is rough. I’m a little more hesitant about the ‘Bama bet, simply because Saban’s never coached back to back seasons with double digit wins before. If the Tide doesn’t beat Virginia Tech, I don’t see it happening this time around. Jerry’s probably right about Ole Miss, but I remember that the exact same things were being predicted for the Nuttster’s last team at Arky, and all it took was one Marcus Monk injury to blow that up.
As for Georgia, the Dawgs haven’t won as few as eight games since Richt’s first season and assuming the injury issues that plagued the team last season are truly a thing of the past, I don’t see it happening this year. The game at Arkansas is most likely the dividing line. I’ve seen a lot of pundits point to that game as a likely upset, but unless the Hogs improve dramatically on defense and special teams this year (and when has a Petrino-coached team been that good on defense?), I’m not seeing it.
What do y’all think?