Bill Connelly, who writes at Football Outsiders and Rock M Nation, is one of the more intimidating bloggers I read. I don’t mean that in a bad way – it’s just that when Chris Brown refers to Connelly as “brilliant”, it’s like the same way I took that smart kid who sat in the back of my advanced calc class in high school. All of which is my long way of saying that Connelly knows what he’s talking about when he digs into the statistical side of college football.
Which leads me to this post of his over at Rock M Nation, where he factors Phil Steele’s turnover margin theory into his projected national rankings. Why should you care? Because he’s got Georgia at number seven. And says this about the Dawgs:
I think Georgia could be in for a better-than-expected season. It will basically depend on five games: Oklahoma State (projected: lose by 0.7), Arkansas (win by 1.0), LSU (win by 1.9), Tennessee (win by 5.3) and Florida (lose by 10.0). If they get through those games at 3-2, then ten wins should be in the cards. If they beat OSU, however, then suddenly the Former World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party (what are they calling it now?) goes from huge to gigantic.
(If you’re wondering about what ” S&P+” is, dig in to the glossary at Football Outsiders for all of that. Don’t say I didn’t warn you.)
Just as a reminder, Georgia finished -3 in turnover margin in 2008.