There’s a good reason why schools chase after five-star recruits. They’re where the best odds lay.
That’s right. A five-star recruit is ten times more likely to become an All-American than the average recruit.
Those Thomas Davis-was-a-tw0-star-recruit stories are nice. And we fret over the Da’Rick Rogers of the world’s choices. But that’s all micro stuff. The macro reality is that the schools that recruit the best talent over time tend to win more over time. All the rest of the recruiting analysis you see is commentary.