Better lucky than good

Matt Melton has taken a mid-season look at the SEC with his SDPI analysis.  I’ve cited him before, but as a refresher, here’s his methodology:

… SDPI is simply a measure of how a given team performed gaining and preventing opponents from gaining yardage versus the conference average. For my SDPI ratings I only look at conference games. I do this primarily because non-conference games vary greatly in strength among teams. In addition, conference games usually come after a team has played a few non-conference games and has had an opportunity to iron out the kinks and show themselves for what they really are…

Warning:  If you’re a Georgia fan, this is going to make you sick to your stomach.

Yep, that’s Georgia sitting there as the second best team in the conference, based on relative conference-derived yardage stats.  And it’s not a close second, either, as Georgia is only one of two SEC teams that measures above average on both sides of the ball.

All of which is consistent with Year2’s Pythagorean expectation analysis, based on scoring instead of yardage, of the SEC to date.  (Also, he looks at the entire schedule, not just conference games.)

The other thing that jumps out in Matt’s breakdown is LSU’s defense, which looks otherworldly there.  Malzahn versus Chavis should be a fascinating chess match this Saturday.



Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

17 responses to “Better lucky than good

  1. Biggus Rickus

    Georgia’s numbers could be somewhat skewed, having played 3 of the bottom 4 by that measure and nobody above 6th. Of course, Georgia would have caused some of that, so maybe it’s a wash.


  2. Josh

    If Malzahn vs. Chavis is Clash of the Titans, what does that make Crowton vs. Roof?

    Dumb and Dumber?
    A Simple Plan?


  3. Go Dawgs!

    That’s somewhat surprising, and just more proof that we should have won those damn games.


    • Penn Wagers

      (Whispering to Rogers Redding) See. It’s working. I told you it would. Just mess up the calls on a few big plays and you can flip the outcome. They’ll never figure it out. They’ll be blaming their Defensive Co-ordinator, their Offensive Co-ordinator, the Head Coach, the players, everybody. They won’t realize that it’s US! Heh, heh, heh.


  4. Bryant Denny

    At this point in the season, should this be used as more of a prediction tool?


  5. Scorpio Jones, III

    I saved this stuff on my desttop, I’ll read it Sunday morning.


  6. Turd Ferguson

    Off topic: Corch Meyers declares Chris “Time to die, bitch” Rainey eligible for the Florida-Georgia game. He’s still not cool with the endzone celebration, though.


  7. Xon

    That endzone celebration was a big deal, etc. etc. ad nauseum now I die.


  8. Dooms Day Dawg

    The stats listed are nice. However, it only adds futher proof that this offensive staff is a joke! While missing 1 key WR (yes, #8 is possibly the top WR in the nation), this staff could not find a way to move the ball and put points on the board! Say what you will, but that is nuts! I know, the Dawgs beat the Vols and ‘Dores by a ton of points. It is possible that these 2 squads are the worst in the conference. Guess we will see what happens this weekend against a decent ‘Cats squad.


    • Biggus Rickus

      In fairness, MSU and South Carolina, against whom they scored 12 and 6 respectively, actually have solid defenses. They put up 24 on Arkansas and 55 on LA-Lafayette without Green.


    • AmpedDawg

      Possibly? Name another you’d rather have (though you can’t just name one that’s played in all seven games to date).


  9. Vious

    Shows how laughable our coaching was this year