Regression to the mean, big time

Patrick Garbin has some interesting stats about Georgia’s recent run of positive turnover margin.  Like this, for example:

… For the third consecutive game, the Bulldogs did not commit a single turnover.  Do you know how rare that is? For Georgia, like any other team, extremely rare.

I found that since 1980 – the first Georgia football season where turnover totals for individual games are readily available – or a span of 373 games, only one other time have the Bulldogs gone three consecutive games during a season without losing a turnover (1997 vs. Tennessee-Vanderbilt-Kentucky).  There has been just one other three-game, no-turnover occurrence if merging seasons are considered (Georgia Tech-Michigan State in the final two games of 1988, Baylor in 1989 season opener).

Considering that Georgia went minus-4 in turnover margin in each of the last two Florida games, it would seem that a little more regression would be due this Saturday.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

10 responses to “Regression to the mean, big time

  1. The Original Cynical in Athens

    Wouldn’t mind a turnover or two if 1997 wants to continue repeating itself.


  2. BenG

    God bless Aaron Murray.


  3. Graham

    Now you’ve done. We’re hopelessly screwed!


  4. Biggus Rickus

    Wouldn’t that imply Georgia’s due to turn the ball over at least once?


  5. Russ

    Come on, Senator! First I read how FL is in 3rd and long over half the time (not boding well for us), and now I read that we’ve never gone 4 games in a row w/out a turnover? Are you trying to jinx us or what?


  6. Diving duck

    Kids and their facial hair


  7. Chris

    Captain Negative reporting for duty. Doesn’t the fumbled onsides kick count as a turnover?


  8. Spence

    Please don’t ever post about how we are due for more turnovers before a big game. Regression works within a season too.