I guess it’s Statistics Day at Get The Picture. College Football Outsiders tipped me off to this post at California Golden Blogs, about a different metric for assessing quarterback efficiency. Given the nature of the college game these days, this makes a lot of sense:
… Utah State sports economist David Berri devised a more intuitive formula that addresses some of the common criticisms lobbed at the passer efficiency rating. Berri calls his measure the QB Score and it looks like this:
QB Score = Total Yards – (3 x Plays) – (50 x Turnovers)
The traditional passer efficiency rating tends to take on a “more is better” approach: if players throw a bunch of TDs and hundreds of yards, they can get away with a fairly high turnover rate. Berri’s measure has a different philosophy: if you generate yards and avoid turnovers, you will be rewarded…
A conference by conference application of Berri’s formula yielded this for the SEC:
SEC Player QB Score Efficiency Rating Cam Newton, Auburn 1645 182.0 Greg McElroy, Alabama 1106 169.0 Aaron Murray, Georgia 729 154.5 Ryan Mallett, Arkansas 630 163.7 Mike Hartline, Kentucky 482 146.4 Chris Relf, Mississippi St 360 141.0 Ryan Aplin, Arkansas St 123 133.3 Jarrett Lee, LSU 80 119.9 Matt Simms, Tennessee -118 129.3 Stephen Garcia, South Carolina -181 148.7 Larry Smith, Vanderbilt -296 94.3 Tyler Bray, Tennessee -486 142.7 Jared Funk, Vanderbilt -581 102.0 Jeremiah Masoli, Ole Miss -618 121.1 Jordan Jefferson, LSU -635 114.7 Spencer Keith, Kentucky -689 111.3 John Brantley, Florida -693 116.4
Nice year, John Brantley.
Seriously, though, Aaron Murray acquits himself quite nicely there, better than Ryan Mallett. And notice how big a gap appears between Murray and last year’s other heralded freshman quarterback, Tyler Bray.
One related item worth noting: Kellen Moore is good. You would think that Cam Newton’s running ability would have pushed him past Moore in QB Score, but that wasn’t the case. Let’s hope Todd Grantham comes up with a few wrinkles for the Georgia Dome.
Get The Picture 
What would Stafford’s ’08 stats look like?
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Apparently Arkansas St. is an SEC school now? Maybe Mandel should’ve done his study based on Utah rather than Montana.
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Yeah, I noticed that. Also, Spencer Keith.
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What’s there position on over signing?
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I didn’t even notice that. Kent State…Kentucky…same thing, right?
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Abbreviations are a bitch.
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Stoopnagle had the exact same thought as I did.
I was surprised to see Murray’s numbers that low actually. My only real exposure to him was the AU game.
Based on that game alone, I think his upside is huge!
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In football? yes. In futbol…not so much.
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+1
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Kellen Moore was great, but so were Titus Young and Austin Pettis, both of whom will likely be gone by the 2nd round of the draft and combined for 142 catches and 2166 yards last year.
Shoemaker had a good year for them too, but how will he fare as a #1 WR without 2 NFL guys lined up beside him? Seems like a guy for Boykin to shadow.
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And the same applies to all other players in the offensive unit, not just the receivers. Moore benefitted from a good OL which gave him time to throw, and opened holes for the running game to be effective enough to keep DBs honest and allow play action passes to work as intended. Football is such a team game that ANY player celebrating his achievements in a personal way should be running laps every morning as the sun comes up. Those players should be busy congratulating their unit’s success, not taking credit by themselves.
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TN fans high on Bray, but heck he is rated lower than Simms. Well so much for that hype.
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As I point out constantly on several blogs, Murray did not have a good year in the only stat that counts: wins and losses. 6-7 folks. No wins against winning teams (or bowl teams, or whatever crap it is I usually use to justify my skewed logic). Not gonna get it done. Hutson Mason, on the other hand, has no losses to winning teams. Think about it. A change needs to be made.
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I see what you did there.
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Christian Lemay is undefeated AND hasn’t had a single dropped pass in SEC play.
He should get the nod.
Oh, and we need John Gruden.
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No…the Pirate.
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While I believe Kellen Moore to be a good qb I don’t think his numbers would be nearly as impressive in the SEC.
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Berri’s formula is very interesting. Here is what I draw from those numbers. Not so much the player, because each one of those guys are good, it is the scheme they work in. Did not look at the other players and their conference, but I see Kellen Moore’s name. Newton, Relf, Moore…only operate from the spread. What makes the spread so high powered, high scoring, and potent is the manufacturing of yards and plays in a game. That is what his product is…positive yards generated thru the pass or run. Overlay Newton, Relf, and Moore…their production is very, very good…if you do not think so…well look at their teams records and bowl play. All three operated from very good O lines…but that was coaching and getting production from some quality players.
What I would like to see on Murray is the numbers for the loss games vs the wins and then for the first half of the season vs the last half. Murray was hurt due to the lack of a solid productive running game. That was coaching and not having some players being available like they should have and not performing like they should have. There were times when Murray was very good. Provided he does not go out and injury himself in some off field play (and if you are a coach or AD you have to stop that kind of stuff…that is just plain damn stupid) he will get better and be more productive. I’m looking forward to see what the OC genius can put on the field this year. Because for three yeras it aint been there.
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Dumbest article ever.
Murray had a HORRID year.
How many of those td’s were against good teams, let’s say, as a minimum standard, teams with just a winning record, even an 7-6 team? 8.
How many of Murray’s td’s were against bad teams, losing records, or 6-7 or worse? 16.
Murray hit on about 55% of his passes against the good teams, up to 67% against the bad teams.
In other words, against bad teams, he’s a top 30 QB, against good teams, he’s a bottom 30 QB.
Murray aint’ all that.
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What’s that? A quarterback performed better against lesser opponents than he did against better opponents? Who’da thunk it?
You’re an idiot.
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I couldn’t have said it better myself.
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Cam Newton, Stephen Garcia, and Ryan Mallet all like to keep their production exactly consistent no matter who they are playing. This lets everyone know they are a truly great quarterback.
In case you didn’t catch the sarcasm, your point is stupid because it could be made for every QB on this list. Yeah, they all had better numbers against bad teams. But since they are all being compared to each other it all equals out. Logic is a beautiful thing.
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How about wins & losses or comeback wins?
6-7 record, Richt’s worst year in 25 years.
0-6 in come from behind games, terrible year.
Any way you measure it? Hilarious. Except wins & losses I guess.
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Senator,
Which losing team that Murray beat would you consider his signature win so far, Idaho State or Louisiana Lafayette?
The kid has never won a game against a winning team, so you have to scratch all those.
Ealey won the Kentucky game with his 5 td’s.
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So since you’re giving credit to Ealey for the Kentucky game for his five TDs, does that mean you’ll credit him instead of Murray for the loss to S. Carolina? He was, after all, the one who fumbled in the end zone.
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Oh, that’s an interesting idea.
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Dude,
Murray couldn’t beat 1 winning team. Are you a Florida fan hoping Murray continues to start, is that what this is all about?
No Georgia fan is happy wiht Murray’s 6-7 record, or 0-6 record against winning teams.
Only a Florida fan or rival would hope Murray keeps that up.
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Oh, blow it out your ass, Howard.
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Don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story.
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Because all 7 losses were solely the fault of Aaron Murray. The defense, running backs, and offense of line hand no hand in any of them what so ever.
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You’ve obviously never gotten over losing Rachel to Ross. Your knowledge of football is worse than Phoebe’s. Go get a job outside of acting.
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Joey Joey Joey last time I check football was the ultimate team sport. UGA sucked as a team and it was not because of Aaron Murray. His o Line sucked his running backs sucked when they were playing at all, and his D could not hold a lead on anybody. I guess Matt Stafford became a bad QB because Detroit had a loosing record and it was his fault. To say that Aaron Murray was why we lost is just plan stupid and you should really go back to your coloring books now.
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Joey if you want to find a reason for those seven losses it probably has more to do with averaging 97 yds on the ground when UGA lost vs. 147 when UGA won.
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Murray obviously has a tell on running plays.
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JOEY: Tech sucks, auburn is in for a coming back down to earth year, the gaytors john brantley is the worst qb in the SEC, and TENN is rebuilding more than us
go read some articles about one the superstar QBs that will be losing for whichever team you like, instead of posting your jealousy all over a dawg article
loser
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Which all leads us to one maddening question –
How did we finish with a losing record again?
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Talent, obviously.
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Coaching, obviously.
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Senator, you may have hit the nail on the head. Houston and Dent had a very good season, but you can’t win with two guys. The scouting report made sone very telling points, if you read between the lines. Green, suspended for half the season. Hard to contribute if you don’t see the field. Also he was playing with his third very different QB in three years. No continuity. Chapas- Banged up for much of the season, needed to be bigger. Boling- there are five posistions on the O line, at one time or another Boling started three of them. I hope the new O line coach doesn’t play musical chairs with the O line so they can gel as a unit. Davis- Weak at run blocking. What? I think I recall reading something about run blocking on this blog. Cuff, possible free agent, fast, but what about pass protection? There was talent, but it was spotty and frankly, at times not well served.
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obviously…
seriously – we got mean reversion on turnovers, penalties improved significantly, the defense was acceptable for first year with a new scheme, and the biggest offensive question mark going into the season proved to be one of its greatest strengths.
Yet we had a losing record and couldn’t punch it in the end zone against a conference USA team in a bowl performance that can’t be described as anything more than pathetic and embarrassing. I’ve blocked a couple of other games from my memory but didn’t we have a hard time getting in the end zone in a couple of the other losses too?
truly maddening and it defies logic, which is why i’ve been the town crier that I’ve been. god i hope we can get things pointed in the right direction before boise…
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Too early to tell, although I find it encouraging that there have been no missteps since the year started.
That may not sound like much, but compared to last year, it is.
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Except an RB that is presently suspended from team activites.
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Even that can be chalked up to greater accountability – something sorely lacking in 2010.
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Turnovers. Not the quantity, but the quality.
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Should have read pass coverage with Cuff. Dyslexia got I.
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It seemed to me that Richt and company spent all of 2010 putting out fires. Between trying to hire new coaches to the Da’Rick fiasco on signing day to off-field problems to injuries to dealing with the NCAA on the Green case to, well you name it. I hope that CMR will be able to devote most of his time to coaching this year and not be up to his ears in BS like last year.
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