The vast majority of punditry I’ve read on the subject of the 2011 SEC East projects its winner coming from one of three (not necessarily in this order): Florida, Georgia and South Carolina. Each has its weaknesses and strengths; I don’t think you can call any one of the three’s chances a slam dunk.
It’s worth taking a look at their schedules and comparing them to see if they give a particular school a leg up in the race. ESPN did a nice job of laying those out a few weeks ago. Here they are:
FLORIDA
Nonconference opponents (2010 records)
Sept. 3: Florida Atlantic (4-8)
Sept. 10: UAB (4-8)
Nov. 19: Furman (5-6)
Nov. 26: Florida State (10-4)
SEC home games
Sept. 17: Tennessee
Oct. 1: Alabama
Nov. 5: Vanderbilt
Oct. 29: Georgia (in Jacksonville, Fla.)
SEC road games
Sept. 24: at Kentucky
Oct. 8: at LSU
Oct. 15: at Auburn
Nov. 12: at South Carolina
GEORGIA
Nonconference opponents (with 2010 records)
Sept 3: Boise State (12-1) (in Atlanta, Ga.)
Sept 17: Coastal Carolina (6-6)
Nov. 5: New Mexico State (2-10)
Nov. 26: Georgia Tech (6-7)
SEC home games
Sept. 10: South Carolina
Oct. 1: Mississippi State
Nov. 12: Auburn
Nov. 19: Kentucky
SEC road games
Sept. 24: at Ole Miss
Oct. 8: at Tennessee
Oct. 15: at Vanderbilt
Oct. 29: at Florida (in Jacksonville, Fla.)
SOUTH CAROLINA
Nonconference opponents (2010 records)
Sept. 3: East Carolina (6-7)
Sept. 17: Navy (9-4)
Nov. 19: The Citadel (3-8)
Nov. 26: Clemson (6-7)
SEC home games
Sept. 24: Vanderbilt
Oct. 1: Auburn
Oct. 8: Kentucky
Nov. 12: Florida
SEC road games
Sept. 10: at Georgia
Oct. 15: at Mississippi State
Oct. 29: at Tennessee
Nov. 5: at Arkansas
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Here are a few thoughts on comparisons:
- Nonconference schedules. Obviously, these don’t have any direct impact on which school wins the East, but they still have an effect in terms of preparation and breathing space over the course of the season. Florida has the easiest go of the three here, both in terms of (lack of) quality opponents and timing, as its only tough OOC game comes after the SEC regular season has played out. South Carolina doesn’t face a ranked non-conference opponent, but if you’re a Georgia fan, you have to like the variation of offensive styles the Gamecocks have to prepare for in their first three games. Spurrier may not be able to spend as much summer prep time on Georgia as he is rumored to allocate because of that. Georgia has the marquee OOC foe in Boise State and you’d have to rate the Dawgs’ non-conference schedule as the toughest because of that.
- SEC West schedules. If you believe as most that the three top teams in the West are Alabama, Arkansas and LSU and that all three are valid top-ten programs this season, then Georgia gets an enormous break avoiding all three. South Carolina does almost as well, though, only facing Arkansas as a road opponent in its penultimate conference game of the season. Florida has to play Alabama and LSU on back to back Saturdays (and follow that up with a road trip to Auburn). It’s clear that the Gators have the hardest draw here.
- Road game schedules. All of the road games are conference matchups, as you might expect. All three schools have one back to back arrangement. Florida’s looks to be the toughest of the three. Note that Georgia only has one October game in Athens, though. South Carolina also has a three game stretch away from its home field with a bye week in the middle.
- Ebb and flow. This is the most interesting part of the scheduling. Florida has a mellow September ahead of it, with two cupcakes and Tennessee at home and Kentucky on the road. But its October is just brutal; it’s not hard to see the Gators going 1-3 that month. And if they’re the wrong three, that’ll pretty much end their chances to win the East. Georgia, on the other hand, comes out of the gate against two schools which should be ranked in the top fifteen at least (although the Dawgs won’t leave the state to play either). But from there, Georgia has a great chance to build some real momentum going into the Cocktail Party, and November sets up as well as a red and black partisan could hope, as the Dawgs won’t leave the state to play a game. South Carolina’s is a mixed bag. Five of its first six games are in Columbia and so are its last three, but that stretch of its final four conference games, all in a row with the first three on the road, looks formidable.
I’ve said that Georgia’s 2011 schedule lays out nicely. It certainly looks better than the other two contenders at this point in time, although an 0-2 start could derail the Dawgs faster than either of the others. Will Muschamp has to deal with scheme changes on both sides of the ball. Florida’s October schedule doesn’t do him any favors. Like Georgia, South Carolina has a great chance to build some momentum if it can win in Athens; the question will be what kind of shape are the ‘Cocks in when they hit that long road stretch beginning in mid-October.
The Georgia-South Carolina and Georgia-Florida games look enormous, as the loser of the first will be in immediate scramble mode to get back in the East race, while the loser of the latter is likely eliminated for good. If the stakes remain high when Florida travels to Columbia, then Muschamp will have proven himself to be a damned good head coach quickly. Either that, or the East will be in even worse shape than most of us thought.