Steele’s Georgia preview

For those of you who haven’t bought the mag, he’s posted his Georgia preview at his site.

A few notes:

  • He thinks there will be a drop off at wide receiver (duh!), but not as much as many of us do.
  • His preview is current enough to take into account Ealey’s departure.
  • He’s got Georgia with the #1 special teams unit in the country.
  • He picks Georgia to win the East in an upset.
  • In the last ten meetings between Georgia and South Carolina, the winner has scored 20 points or less in eight of them.

And if you want to scratch your head, look at his 7-year stats summary and compare the 2009 and 2010 numbers.  Other than the rushing stats on both sides of the ball, the 2010 team improved.  Except in wins and losses, of course.

24 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water

24 responses to “Steele’s Georgia preview

  1. Scott W.

    When your special teams unit is #1 that isn’t always a good sign.

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  2. vincent

    I think this year will boil down to has the defense progressed enough in year 2 and the schedule favorable enough to offset the lack of established receivers, running game, or o line. I think the answer is no but that’s why u play the games.

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  3. Cousin Eddie

    Great, he has jinxed the special teams the way the O-Line was the best in the country last year.

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  4. ThePetis

    So the old adage that you have to be able to run the football and stop the run holds true… Who said football was changing?

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  5. gastr1

    I don’t know how long it will take before it becomes apparent that the improvement in the stats was due to playing closer games against the good teams on the schedule and beating the holy tar out of the bad teams. Whether the team was actually better or worse is probably moot–or better yet, probably not the case, because the team was more likely about the same–because of the lack of controls in the short-term picture (variables include players, attitudes, coaches, AND schedule–home versus away games/quality of other teams, whether Penn Wagers had his panties in a wad that day, etc., etc., etc.). The only way to get a meaningful picture of sports teams whose records and performance have so many variables but such similar records, IMO, is to look at them over a period of several years to identify trends.

    You know, like we could all do with WM’s defenses.

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  6. Section Z alum

    oddly, in the sec preview section, he says we have 14 returning starters in the team preview, he only gives us twelve.

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  7. Jason

    I went to Books-A-Million last night specifically for his magazine and didn’t see it. Is it only in certain stores?

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  8. Sanford222View

    Nice that Steele has Ealey’s departure noted. Lindy’s must go to press much earlier as I noticed it on magazine rack while picking up Steele’s. Lindy’s has Ealey as on of the three featured SEC players on it’s Southeastern issue cover. This made me open it up to the Georgia section and what do ya know? Ealey was the primary photo for the Georgia recap as well.

    Ooops. Or maybe not. It did at least get me to pick it up and open it which is more than I usually do with a Lindy’s or Athlons.

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  9. Go Dawgs!

    I don’t think there’s any doubt that Georgia was better offensively in 2010 than it was in 2009 (when AJ was in the lineup, that is). Even considering that Caleb and Washaun were much less reliable this year than last, I never had the feeling that Georgia was going to fail to score points. The problem was the defense. I am hoping for a lot of improvement on that side of the ball this year, because I’m not sure the offense is going to be able to match their 2010 performance this year.

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    • George O'Leary

      “….I never had the feeling that Georgia was going to fail to score points.” I DID have that feeling and my game plan in the Liberty Bowl reflected it. It’s great when a plan comes together just the way you envisioned it.

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  10. WH

    I wonder: if the defense gets off the field on 3rd & long against those good teams last year, how many things start looking better: points, time of possession, yards, etc. Help me out here, Stats Geeks. How many points did we give up on drives that were sustained by long (8+ yds) 3rd-down conversions? Anyone? Bueller?

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    • WH

      OK, to answer my own question: 73 points. On 3rd-downs of 8+ yards, whether by run, pass or penalty, we gave up drive sustaining conversions in the following quantities and points:

      OPP    #      Points      Notes
      SC     1      7           Lattimore, of course
      AR     3      17          3 Mallet passes
      CU     2      14          10yd pass, Vance Cuff Roughing Kicker PEN.
      UF     1      7           21 yd Brantley pass on 3rd & 19.
      AU     4      28          2 Newton runs for 13+, 2 15yd. Penalties
      

      Look at that list. Those are tough teams that we either should have beaten, or we had a shot to take them out with a major upset, but just couldn’t get off the field when we needed to. (Conspicuously absent are the humiliating losses to MSU & UCF, wherein the offense truly was atrocious, though the SC game was pretty awful, too.) Plenty of other things went wrong, too. But a Year 2 defense should definitely take away one of those CU TDs, stop any one of the AR drives and stifle any two of those drives against Auburn.

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  11. Slaw Dawg

    I like Steele enough to keep a collection of past years’ mags in my bookcase, and I hope he’s right, but I just don’t see it. I hate to come across like Larry Munson on a cold and drizzly November, but the only known strengths in our offense are QB, TE and our kicking game, and everything else is, at best, a question mark. On defense, the reports on D Line and secondary sound promising, but I’ll believe it when I don’t see us burned routinely on 3d and long and in the short passing game. I’m a perennial Dawg optimist, but not this time. I hope Mark Richt is around til he’s 80, ’cause that’ll mean he’s winning and ’cause he’s a good guy, but if I were to bet, it’d be on a new Head Dawg roaming the hedgerow next year.

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  12. I think our problems at wide receiver early last year were related to the suspension (no kidding!) of AJ but, more importantly, the result of Bobo’s refusal to open the playbook early in the year with AM. With no real threat of a consistent running game and a QB who was required to play with his throwing arm tied behind his back, it’s no wonder we scored six in Columbia and 12(?) in Starkville. Add that to the fact that we couldn’t stop the zone read all year long and 6-7 is the result.

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    • Biggus Rickus

      I will grant you that they were far too conservative against South Carolina, but from then on they were pretty consistent in passes attempted per game. The Mississippi State game in particular saw his third highest number of passes attempted and third highest yardage output on the season. They just couldn’t get in the end zone until the game was out of reach.

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      • Sep

        I agree with you both but if the qb is a threat more so than last years early games the defense does have to prepare more.

        I think Murray’s skill and maturity will be the key this year and the other dc’s know his skill. The running backs are the key.

        And the defense will be better because of comfort knowing the system.

        Does anyone know any good numbers for the lottery?

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  13. Sanford222View

    My will power is really being tested. I bought the Phil Steele mag today to take on a vacation to the mountains next week. The Senator’s link to Georgia’s preview has been taunting me all day. I have no clue how I am going to make it until early mext week before reading it.

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