Curse you, Pythagoras!

I don’t think this chart will come as a surprise to many of us:

And the same goes for the explanation.

… Moving to the opposite end of the spectrum, Georgia… well, look, Mark Richt is the butt of jokes everywhere for a reason. Georgia underachieved significantly because their three conference wins were generally all lopsided blowouts — an average margin of victory of 27 points — while they routinely lost competitive games outside of those blowouts, and in doing so somehow found a way to lose to Mississippi State, Colorado, Central Florida, and the worst Florida team in the post-Zook era…

Yeah, that’ll do it.  But doesn’t this indicate that it’s reasonable to expect a rebound in 2011?  The author is skeptical,

… Going into 2011 improvement seems likely, especially with the continued development of Aaron Murray and the almost-laughably weak SEC East, but this is a team with far more holes than they ought to have given their recruiting prowess, and a return to Richt’s glory years doesn’t seem very likely…

but if this blogger is correct, Vegas sees things differently.  Georgia is the only team in the East with an over/under line expected to be set as high as nine.


Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

12 responses to “Curse you, Pythagoras!

  1. simpl_matter is skeptical about our chances?!? Meh…


  2. Wonderful Ohio on the Gulf 'Dog does, in fact, leave us with statistical hope for improvement,

    The Editor’s Note at the bottom says:

    “The lone underachiever from 2009, Arkansas, held true to Pythagorean form, moving from 3-5 in conference play and fourth in the SEC West to 6-2 in the conference while finishing second in the division.”

    If this phenomenon of “the least shall be first” holds true in 2011, this is great news for the ‘Dogs.

    Six and Two in the SEC ought to lead us to a 10-2 or 9-3 2011 reqular season record and should be good enough for a second 2011 Dome game.

    Come quickly, September 3!


  3. AusDawg85

    I wonder how many other coaches underachieve when their best player is sitting on the sidelines with a 4 game suspension? Curse you, Mark Richt! How could you NOT see that coming AND have another 1st round NFL draft pick WR ready to play dammit?!! Please take your Bobo and go home.

    Thank goodness select statistical analysis is always available to clearly paint the whole picture for us.


  4. 69Dawg

    I have decided to go with the Missouri approach this year, Just Show Me. I refuse to buy into any of the chicken little crap or the hey we are going to win the East crap, Just Show Me in September – November.


    • Dog in TN

      Ditto, well said.


      • Comin' Down The Track

        Yep, winning eliminates the need to defend one’s actions to one’s critics… unless, of course, one is winning with ineligible players; but that’s a different kettle of fish.


  5. Watchman

    The chart measures “underachievement” relative only to points scored and points allowed, not overall record or expectations. Having your best player out may change you actual win-loss ratio, but it doesn’t have anything to do with how your points differential is or is not reflected in that win-loss count.


  6. Biggus Rickus

    By that chart Saban sucked balls last year too. If I were a betting man, I’d put money on MSU to fall back to 6 maybe 7 wins and Georgia to get to 10, with everyone else doing about what you’d expect based on returning starters and all that.


  7. Richt is the butt of a lot of jokes? They can’t say that about our coach! Only we can!

    Cue Randy Newman: “He may be a fool, but he’s our fool.”


  8. Scott

    I’ve said this before and I know that it is not a popular opinion here, but…..the thing that jumps out at me is that within the SEC, only eventual MNC Auburn and Arkansas (lead by a supposed offensive genius) scored more points than UGA. The only teams that allowed more points within the SEC, were Ole Miss, Vandy, and Kentucky.

    We can score with anybody (except UCF, smh). Even with AJ not back this year and a messy O-line situation, I don’t think we fall off that much. If the gains from year 1 to year 2 on the Defensive side of the ball show up as expected, that list will look a lot different next year.


    • Wonderful Ohio on the Gulf 'Dog

      Defense wins. If they cannot score on you, you cannot lose.

      Our whole defense will be bunches better even if Big John doesn’t completely work out like we expect him to.