Stats, stay away from me.

Your Jedi mind tricks will not work on me, Year2.

Georgia’s 417 points for and 287 points allowed compute to a Pythagorean win percentage of .708. Across 13 games, that projects to 9.20 wins, giving Georgia a luck factor of -3.20 for 2010. That’s the worst luck score of any team since 2000.

The only other team to crack -3 was 2009 Oklahoma, which had luck of -3.16 over 13 games and improved from 8-5 to 12-2. I’m not saying Georgia will go from 6-7 to a BCS bid, but UGA should have a better record this year.

Of the 19 teams since 2000 to post a luck score of -2.25 or worse, 16 improved their records the following year. Those that didn’t started an injury-prone freshman quarterback (‘10 Nebraska), switched to a freshman quarterback (’05 Purdue) or were breaking in a new coaching staff (’08 SMU).

One thing:  that 2009 Oklahoma team lost 42 starts to injuries, third most in the nation (the data’s below the picture, heh).  Last year, that’s one area where Georgia wasn’t unlucky.

17 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

17 responses to “Stats, stay away from me.

  1. Hogbody Spradlin

    Yea, but Pythagoras was a Nerd. Anybody who thinks up the crap he did must be a Techie.

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  2. Dawgy45

    I can’t bring myself to scroll below the picture.

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  3. Dave

    Fairly interesting. You make your own luck, but sometimes the ball just doesn’t bounce your way, either. The injuries thing is kind of moot. Points are points, regardless of who’s scoring them or giving them up, so that’s a separate issue. The stat/trend I’m most looking forward to seeing bear out is how Richt (and, I’d say, most teams) does when he’s got a returning starting QB. Greene went from 8-4 to 13-1. Stafford went from 9-4 to 11-2. And heck, even though DJ Shockley wasn’t the starter, he played significantly more over his first three years than Joe Cox.

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  4. AusDawg85

    2010 Season…R.I.P. Ashes to ashes, dust to dust, etc. So bad it even killed poor “little” UGA. It’s over. Let’s move on.

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    • Castleberry

      Exactly. I’d rather the guys have a bad attitude about last year – if they give it any thought at all. Unlucky is hand in hand with the entitlement thinking that hasn’t done much for us lately. Too much of that and we’ll sound like a bunch of SC fans.

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  5. W Cobb Dawg

    2010 summary – we beat up on lousy teams and the teams that didn’t suck beat us. We were poorly prepared and poorly coached, therefore we performed poorly when it mattered most. Whether it continues in 2011 is all that matters. If it does continue in 2011, I’ll look forward to a new staff in 2012.

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    • Biggus Rickus

      Losing a bunch of close games doesn’t necessarily imply poor preparation.

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    • Jim

      Very well said

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    • Bad M

      Blah, blah, blah. Sorry but he’s the coach for this season. Enough already. Let’s let him lose one game before you bring out the pitchforks. Go root for a coach that has a better record over the last ten years with the same team. All your Hot seat talk does is send recruits over to Auburn and Tenn. Me, I’ll stick with Richt…through the fire and tough times. Take your fair-weather fan-dom elsewhere.

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      • Jim

        Just ’cause somebody calls a spade a spade does not make them any less of a fan. Maybe your post is directed to more emotional and irrational ones but W Cobb Dawg’s post is closer to fact/truth/reality than 90pct of of the stuff here – any fan or hater of UGA that looks at things even half rationally can see the obvious – what he said is spot-on. What is tiresome is the constantly blaming of the poor trajectory of our program on some mysterious curse, bad luck or other non sense.

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        • Bad m

          An average year and a bad year are not a trajectory. New defense, freshman QB, AJ’s problems. It was to be expected by anyone who understands. Tell me one coach that has gone more than a decade with only ONE losing season. You are the kind of short sighted moron that would have fired Bear Bryant after two, yes two, 6 win seasons. Down years are inevitable and you aren’t just calling anything a spade. Let the man do his job. You were spoiled by his success and now are just hurting the program. Jump off the bandwagon, fair-weather. We don’t need you.

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      • W Cobb Dawg

        If the logic is we stick with a coach whether he’s producing or not, then Ray Goff should still be the coach. I hope Richt returns to top form. He truly is a great guy and a credit to our program. But 6-7 is a terrible coaching job, particularly when there were 10 returning starters on offense. Now we’re supposed to believe all those players were at fault – bad apples, lazy, etc., but the coaches do no wrong and deserve our unending admiration?

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  6. bob

    How many games have we played yet?
    Noooo, we are to truly believe anyone…ANYONE…can win for ten years without a losing season. With players leaving for the NFL, injuries, academic issues, coaching changes. It’s because anyone can control 18-20 year old all the time. Even though Jesus Christ himself couldn’t control his 12 disciples. I guess all those ten win seasons were a fluke and we should fire him the first time he has a losing season. OOOORRRRRR we can trust a guy who forgot more than you will ever know about football. At least save your supreme coaching talents for when you coach your team this fall.

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  7. bob

    I guess Texas should fire Mack Brown too, huh?

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