Hey, the stats are at it again.

I’m kidding a little bit.  Georgia’s early statistical story is going to be skewed by the weird goings-on from the South Carolina game.

But it’s worth noting that despite playing Sagarin’s seventh toughest schedule to date, Georgia’s offensive stats look pretty decent.  The Dawgs are middle of the pack in the conference in total offense (at better than a 30 yards per game clip over Auburn!) and show up in Bill Connelly’s top 25.

57 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

57 responses to “Hey, the stats are at it again.

  1. Spence

    This is the Bobo Paradox. Offenses that look good in many statistical categories but manage to lose games and piss away critical situations.

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    • Macallanlover

      Whether attributable to Bobo or not, UGA has truly minimized scoring/winning despite effective offensive stats. I am not a big fan of some of the sets, or usage of personnel, when we get inside the 25 yard line but truth is we don’t finish drives off very well. Too easy to place all the blame on Bobo since player execution, senseless penalties, turnovers, etc., contribute to breakdowns that become drive killers.

      The inability of the OL to get any push, or at least prevent penetration, is a major factor to our stalls. We often seem to get no-gain plays in the less than 3 yards to go situation. I would love to see us play smash-mouth football on 2nd and 5 but find myself wanting to run wide or throw it every play when we get into the scoring zone.

      The comment yesterday about Crowell taking himself out when CMR felt he had something going is reminiscent of Knowshon who would often have 5-8 carries in helping us drive down the field then raise his hand and watch the drive stall on the sideline. Hard for me to understand 5-10 minutes of work for a well-conditioned athlete at age 20 requiring rest and causing him to miss the payoff for his work.

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      • Spence

        The line played well out of the I against the cocks. On the 3/4 of the first drives we got down to the red zone (great stat padding) doing that, then Bobo followed your lead on 3rd and short and threw from the shotgun. The result was 6 points when we should have had 21. Stat sheet looked pretty good, unless you count wins as a stat. And that is the Bobo paradox in a nutshell.

        I think we will get better though. I hope.

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      • Skeeter

        It’s my understanding he was hurt. Would we rather he stay in there and botch a play because he needed a breather? I wonder if it has to do with running style with these shifty backs exerting huge amounts of energy per play. Think of Olympic sprinters like Bolt who are completely spent after a race and need days to recover. Could you imagine them running another sprint :30 secs after finishing one? ‘Course, we’re not training for the Olympics, I’ve heard…

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        • Macallanlover

          Certainly injuries are the exception, I am referring to the weariness and fatique factor. I appreciate you viewpoint but I just can’t buy that argument. I have played too many sports personally, and now watch too many modern-day athletes who do not seem to have those issues. god knows I wish Lattimore had raised his hand during the 4th Qtr……..this year and last.

          In the conditioned air of the Georgia Dome out defense had to take a timeout on the opening drive in the 2nd half….after a 30 minute rest. I get the timeout to rethink your defensive scheme, but to get water and a knee after 7- plays is troubling to me.

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          • Cojones

            He had rib injuries. Do you seriouly not want to let a player judge whether he may be a liability after running with a rib injury and , for the sake of argument, say that it may be painful and difficult to breath? Although he wore rib protection in the second half, contact and aftermath had to be extremely painful. I want him to take his butt out and the comment is a stretch concerning Knowshon. Knowshon didn’t take himself out for Crowell’s reason. This isn’t troubling at all. Are we being nit-picky?

            This doesn’t sound like you, Macallanlover.

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            • Macallanlover

              Not sure you read my post clearly at all ” Certinly injuries are the exception”, and “troubling” was said about the defense on the opening 2nd half drive against Boise, where we were winded after coming back from halftime break. KM certainly did take himself out for a blow many, many times and it brought hundreds of comments from UGA fans who noticed the same thing. It was almost bizarre the number of times he did this.

              My comments were primarily addressed to conditioning more than heart, but there is some “heart” question in there. It was never, never meant to imply a player should risk injury, and I don’t think it ever did.

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      • Mayor of Dawgtown

        Mac, the problem with Bobo in a nutshell IMHO is that he doesn’t call plays for a “football” game, he calls plays for a “football statistics” game. An analogy that I think you would appreciate is the golfer who doesn’t really play “golf” but rather plays “golf swing.”

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        • Macallanlover

          OT—-Mayor, is th escotch you were telling me about called Black Bottle? I found some, interestingly enough in a green damned bottle, but wasn’t sure if that was what you recommended. haven’t been back to Total Wine yet so maybe my store doesn’t carry it. Be there in October.

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          • Mayor of Dawgtown

            Yeah, it’s now in a green bottle although it used to be in a black one. I was in the Total Wine store in Cobb County on Barrett Parkway yesterday and they had it at that location.

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  2. For perspective on the top 25 ranking, Clemson finished 25th last year in the country by that same measure (combo of FEI and S&P+). It can be very schedule dependent. We played 5 top 25 teams by that measure (Auburn, SC, FSU, NC State, and Miami). We went 1-4 against those five.

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  3. Criticisms of Bobo aside, to be averaging more than 400 yards after playing the two toughest games on your schedule puts the Dawgs’ offense in a pretty good position. The defensive statistics look pretty poor at the moment, but those will only get better over the next few weeks.

    Of course, if we learned anything from last season, it’s that those stats plus two bucks will get you a tall Pike Place Roast at Starbucks.

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    • PNWDawg

      Do we really believe we just played the toughest 2 games on our schedule? How can we make that assumption after only 2 weeks? Based on the perpetual f*ck-up in florida I’d say that’s still our hardest game. Knoxville? We don’t play so well there lately. The other teams will be getting better too. I don’t think S.C. will do as well as many think. And I believe our defense looked good against them because their offense really wasn’t that impressive last week (excluding some good runs by Lattimore).

      I’m not trying to dismiss we are improving and had something to cheer for last week. I just don’t buy into this notion the schedule softens-up for us.

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  4. Derek

    I’d like to play well in the first quarter against a good team. There is no way that our off. stats are anything but terrible in the opening quarter. It is this flaw that is killing us. If we could get a lead and make the opposition press and get away from their game plan we could win games like the last two.

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    • D.N. Nation

      Uh, Georgia scored first against both USC and BSU.

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      • Derek

        I dont think scoring points first solves the issue. The problem is that the offense played poorly in the first half. Boykins scoring run was for more yards than the rest of the team in the first half. If that suffices for you can I have some of what you are taking?

        As for USC we scored twice before USC. We were able to get into field goal range because of the running game and in spite of murray’s very slow start.

        My point is that 17-0 leads in those games (not unobtainable given how well our d has played in the first period).and we may be 2-0.

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    • Cojones

      And if a frog had wings…..

      What is this “flaw” business? Senator, College Football is being reinvented right here on your blog. Oh, well. Haven’t read about all the “trending” that was on here previously, so I guess it’s a step up.

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  5. Gravidy

    No offense to you, Senator, but I quit reading when I read that Sagarin says there are six teams in the country which have played a harder schedule than Georgia so for this season.

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  6. Willy

    who are the 6 teams that have played a tougher schedule?

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  7. Will Trane

    One sack on an opposing QB.
    How many negative plays from the defense and the offense? Would like to that chart. The defense has had stopping power in the 4th quarter at key downs and series. Which carries back to the Carolina game closing minutes. There is one thing the offense can do [other than turning over the ball] is strike quick and deep. In two games [not a season] but they have certainly shown that ability. If we do not onside kick with 3 times out and punch the ball thru the end zone, Carolina starts at their 20. What plays do you think Spurrier uses to protect his lead. Lattimore is his horse. He would be hesitant to let Garcia put the ball up considering the prior 2 picks. If they hold, and that would be big considering Lattimore had gashed them all day, I think they could have sent it into OT.
    Now I understand all the stats, in fact if you look at the offense stats against unranked teams, well, not there like the rest of the 11 fortunate, favored, and ballyhooed SEC teams. The key state for me, and again I understand the 14 point they gave up directly on turnovers, is the inability of the defense to make stops. I think CMR has a little lack of confidence in two coaches. They be Grantham and Rodney Gardner. Where is our defense and D line. We have the same issues on the D line we had last year. One sack against two QBs, and many will outrun Garcia to the kitchen table everyday, and you can count the tackles by the D line on one hand.
    Some where this defense had better get on board with the offense.

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    • Hackerdog

      South Carolina and Boise each used short passes to negate any pass rush. Neither QB had the time for long patterns to emerge. That means we were getting some pressure.

      And in the SC game, our defense held South Carolina to 4-14 (29%) on 3rd down. Eliminate just one of the offensive and special teams miscues in that game, and our defense would have won it.

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  8. Here ya go
    1- Northwestern State- Delta St., LSU
    2- UAB- Florida
    3- Nevada – Oregon
    4- Florida Atlantic- Florida, Michigan State
    5- Norfolk State- Virginia State, West Virginia
    6- East Carolina- South Carolina, Virginia Tech

    Ridiculous, would love to know how they come to those rankings, although I probably wouldn’t understand it.

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    • AusDawg85

      Well thank goodness we ducked playing Delta St. this week!

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    • After further thought, we didn’t have to play either game on the road (Dome, yes, and it certainly didn’t end up an advantage). Not like East Carolina or FAU. That probably accounts for part of the rankings. Still, we are the only team that has played two ranked opponents in the first two games.

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    • PNWDawg

      I don’t know much about strength of schedule but making any rulings this early is garbage. I’m assuming it has something to do with current rankings which at this point are meaningless. Let’s wait until the season has played out a bit and see how difficult our schedule really is and who are the toughest teams we face.

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  9. AlphaDawg

    Since Bobo took over we’ve averaged 6th in the league in total Offense, i’d love to see those stats back to 2001.

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  10. 69Dawg

    What fresh hell is this. The gods are truly crazy mad at UGA. We may play like a winner but we are a losers. This could just drive a Saint to drink.

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  11. Texas Baller

    The only important stats:
    10th in the SEC in scoring offense
    12th (that would be last) in the SEC in scoring defense
    No sugar-coating!

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    • Hackerdog

      But you have to acknowledge the factors behind the statistics. Such as the fact that most teams have been playing tuneup games. Also, the defensive stats treat all opponent scores (like pick 6s) as scoring against your defense.

      Our defense has improved from last year.

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  12. JaxDawg

    When was the last time a Richt-led team played lights out and exceeded expectations? I’ll say 2007.

    Conversely, you’ll need both hands and a few toes to count the times we’ve underachieved and have generally been embarrassed.

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    • Bevo

      Even then, we failed to score a TD against South Carolina and we wet the bed and got blown out against Tennessee. Our marquee wins that year were against shaky Florida and Auburn squads. 2007 was a fun season, but in retrospect I’m not so sure that we beat one really strong team that year. I think the last real victory we pulled off against a truly solid team was Auburn in 2006.

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      • JaxDawg

        Agree. And our last 10 games against ranked teams substantiates that. More than anything, our record against ranked teams will be Richt’s undoing. Face it, we just aren’t competitive anymore. A has been. A laughing stock.

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        • Bevo

          Afraid you’re right on all of the above.

          Meanwhile, the psychology of being a fan of an irrelevant program creeps in.

          It’s an empty feeling at this point. After the shock and indignation of cheering for a losing program that is accustomed to winning wears off, it’s not so bad. Kind of numb, really.

          Moral victories now have more meaning than ever. “Hey, that loss against USC wasn’t so bad – we played a heck of a game!” … “Man, did you see all those freshmen? We’re gonna be great next year!”

          I guess I’m starting to understand how some of the “other” fanbases live.

          What I would give to have that “I can’t believe Stu Mandel left us off the list of elite programs” problem back.

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      • MinnesotaDawg

        Agree. Except for that fun stretch you mention in 2007, the program has been slowly declining since its high-water mark: mid-season 2005. Even during the good times (which were driven by a very solid D), our offense would seem to take every third game off. A real hallmark of the Richt era has been the consistently inconsistent offense (throughout any given season, in any given game, or from drive-to-drive).

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    • Cojones

      Of course, we could join you all, throw up our hands and give up. Forgot: we could place those ashes on our head like all of you are wearing and walk in circles mumbling, and continue to blog about a “terrible” team that you seem to keep blogging about. We can shut out the rest of the over 65% fans who still support Richt and his Dawgs and stubbornly ignore the good things and good players on the team until next year’s signing. That would be after the AJC gleefully extolls all the athletes we didn’t get from Georgia because they fear that they won’t have the coaches who have worked so hard to project our good points for their selection to our team. Of course, running down the football program like a bad record each day will get the changes you want before we play MSU and that will supposedly shut you up.

      This alum asks: Why are you jackasses doing this? It is now public knowledge that you are hurting recruiting and undermining the staff. Why? You represent less than 20% of the fans, but lambast the program as if you are in the majority. Why? Your claim to criticizing us to greatness has gotten old. Your egotistical ploy that no one else has seen the games nor understand what they have seen is approaching weird.

      My apologies to those who may have used Bobo’s name in a good way because as soon as I see his name in a blog, I cease reading it.

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  13. Statistical analysis also reveals that if my aunt had balls, she’d be my uncle. Looking forward to an increase in the ever-important “win-loss ratio” this weekend.

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  14. Will Trane

    Agree the defense has improved, but? 176 yeards from a running back. I’ll wait and see what the rest of the SEC defenses do to Lattimore. When it came time to hold the ball, move the chains, and run out the clock, they made it happen. Irregardless of thier previous 3 rd down conversions. On USC last series, watch their line block, their push on our D, and we do not stop them. Ask Auburn’s D what it means to make a stick or hit at the right time…like on the goal line. Ask Carolina what is means to give up 4 passing TDs, and have one pick for a TD. Or force another turnover.
    The offense made some big mistakes and Carolina capitalized on everyone of them. Again, the defense will have to make a stop. And they never seem to make those anymore in important games.

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    • Hackerdog

      You’re still waiting to see how good Lattimore is? Since I remember 2010, I can break the suspense for you. He’s very good.

      He played in 12 games (sat out the Vandy game and I’m not counting the bowl game where he left the game after one carry), and averaged 100 yards per game. He gained 93 yards against Alabama and 212 against Florida.

      You think that the final series of the game, where our defense was tired and had been on the field the majority of the last several series, was somehow more indicative of their performance that the prior 3.5 quarters? Lattimore did get yards. But he didn’t get them up the middle against our line. He got them by trying to go up the middle, and then bouncing outside while our linebackers lost contain.

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  15. OKDawg

    First and foremost, I am no Bobo apologist. But does this silence the argument heard often that Bobo’s relatively strong offensive stats are irrelevant (and should be thrown out…along with him) because he pads them with weaker teams? If he is faring well against BSU, USC, does he need the cupcakes to boost the stats? Or does this point back to the defense since Bobo began calling plays?

    Now I need a shower. I feel filthy for even suggesting CMB does not deserve blame for something.

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  16. vincent

    after last season i learned that the only stat that matters is wins and losses and this team has yet to prove it has improved in that department. Plenty of blame to spread around. offense- yeah u scored a bunch and move the ball unfortunately u also scored 21 points for USC. Defense – couldn’t make the stop when it mattered: when we went up 35-31. special teams: learn to cover a fake punt.

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  17. AthensHomerDawg

    Wait…. for a moment I thought I was at “jorts and hominy” not “Get the Picture” …. Its all good. Everybody suck it up. Let’s get behind the Dawgs. Season has a lot of games to be played. We can diddle and dee later.

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