Stats on the hot seat

The SEC maintains a handy, dandy chart on the last page of the stats it compiles which tracks where the twelve schools rank relative to each other in fourteen categories.  In a head-to-head comparison, Georgia comes out ahead of Ole Miss in ten of those fourteen (the Black Rebel Bears lead in scoring defense, punt returns, interceptions and sacks).

Georgia’s statistical advantage is especially pronounced on offense, as Ole Miss is eleventh in the conference in rushing, passing and scoring and dead last in total offense.  In a conference with wheezing offenses like those of Vanderbilt and Kentucky, that’s quite an accomplishment.

And keep in mind that to date, Georgia’s played Sagarin’s 19th toughest schedule, compared to Ole Miss’ 62nd ranked one.

All of which suggests that Georgia should win in Oxford this Saturday.  But we all know with this team what stats and five dollars will get you at Starbucks.

10 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

10 responses to “Stats on the hot seat

  1. Spence

    So I looked up who the toughest schedule was according to Sagrin. The winner (sic) is Western Carolina, who has played itself to a 1-1 record against…

    Georgia Tech and Mars Hill.
    I was wondering if this schedule rank includes upcoming games, but here is their schedule for the year:

    http://www.catamountsports.com/sports/m-footbl/sched/wcar-m-footbl-sched.html

    Surely I’m missing something? If not, can we officially start ignoring this computer bullshit now?

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    • The problem I have with Sagarin is that he won’t disclose how he comes up with his calculations. Unfortunately, he’s the only one who publishes SOS stats this early in the season, so I’m kinda stuck with him.

      I don’t think it demolishes the underlying point in my post, though. Ole Miss has played a weaker schedule than Georgia has.

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      • Spence

        I agree that UGA has played a tougher schedule than Ole Miss and am not trying to take anything away from your post. I’m just amazed that any ranking could have a team that played Tech and Mars Hill as the toughest SOS. It’s absolutely insane.

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        • Turd Ferguson

          I wouldn’t say it’s absolutely insane … though I’d certainly agree that Sagarin’s rankings are basically useless for the purposes for which we ordinarily appeal to SOS rankings. I think the basic idea is that, if “strength” in this context means something like “difficulty,” then the strength of Team X’s schedule will depend upon more than just Team X’s scheduled opponents. It will also depend upon the strength of Team X. Suppose Western Carolina had exactly the same schedule as LSU. In one sense, of course, we’d think that their SOS should be the same. But in another sense, that schedule would be much, much more difficult for Western Carolina.

          Imagine you’re in college and your roommate is the smartest person alive. One semester, you get exactly the same course schedule. Would it be fair to say that your schedules are equally difficult? In one sense, yes. In another, certainly not.

          I don’t know how Sagarin does his rankings, but I suspect that they’re designed to capture something like this. And there’s something to it. But again, most ordinary discussions of “Who’s got the harder schedule?” don’t factor in the differences between the teams whose schedules are being contrasted.

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          • Mayor of Dawgtown

            Whaaaaaat?

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          • Puffdawg

            I disagree Turd. Strength of schedule is not figured on a relative basis. If it were it would not be relevant.

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            • Turd Ferguson

              I think you misunderstand me. I’m only trying to make some sense of Sagarin’s crazy-looking rankings; I’m not saying that’s how it *ought* to be done. In fact, twice in my comment I admit that a team-relative SOS would be practically useless (unless we’re comparing teams that are roughly equally good/bad). But I can think of no other way to make sense of Sagarin’s rankings. The top-10 toughest schedules (so far), according to Sagarin, have all been played by pretty bad teams. Meanwhile, LSU has played 2 ranked teams in just the first 3 games, both away from home, and that’s only good for the 42nd toughtest schedule? It’s either completely arbitrary, or it’s at least somewhat team-relative.

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  2. 81Dog

    Senator, can $5 get you anything at Starbuck’s besides a thin lipped stare from the wait staff?

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