You’re gonna miss him when he’s gone.

The standard warning about correlation not be the same thing as causation notwithstanding, this is pretty striking data from Bill Connelly:

Last year in the SEC, teams with big-time No. 1 targets (defined here as receivers averaging at least 10.0 yards per target) went a combined 27-10 in conference; teams with No. 1’s averaging fewer than 10 yards per target went just 21-35 (15-33 if you remove LSU’s trend-bucking Tigers).

A.J. Green was one of those targets.

I don’t have target data for Georgia’s receivers for this season, but if you compare receiving stats for this season against last year’s, you’ll see that overall yards per catch numbers are lower, by almost two ypc.  The only receiver in 2011 who might meet Connelly’s definition is Orson Charles.

The passing stats show that the Dawgs are throwing the ball more this year, but have shortened the passing attack.  Given the struggles with pass blocking, that’s probably wise.  But you wonder how much they’re going to miss the deep game they had with A.J.

25 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

25 responses to “You’re gonna miss him when he’s gone.

  1. ScoutDawg

    I think that South Carolina game goes different for one.

    Like

  2. Will Trane

    Green and Durham left. Think that could factor in the difference in 10 and 11 season comparison.
    Always like comments like “stud receiver”. Not sure what that means. Nor possession receiver. What I did not notice about UT-UF game was their passing technique, the snap issues from UT center to Bray that threw off their timing, and the lack of a good running game. Same issue FSU had with OU.
    Not everybody thinks the receive runs down the field, peeks over, lays out for a 40 – 50 yard pass like SB and a few others. The passing game is not that by any means. Think most peopel view Spurrier as a top QB-receiver guru…and he has a very good one in Jefferies. But how would SB view their passing game. Or Boise.
    Plus I would not say Cincy is a cupcake after they lite-up NCS last evening. Bray can throw. He is accurate, He can get it out in a hurry. He fits Dooley’s scheme and where they are going.

    Like

  3. Keese

    AJ will be (is) missed most in our mid passing game.

    Like

  4. W Cobb Dawg

    The first oddity is our TE is getting more yards than our WRs. Couldn’t this short yardage attack benefit by using two TEs – particularly when we have talent like White and Lynch standing on the sidelines. They could take a hit better than our WRs across the middle, not to mention dealing out a few beatings of their own on opposing LBs and DBs. I’m not in the arena, but I’d still like to see us give the 2 TE offense a shot more often.

    Like

  5. SwanSong

    I think it’s more AJ & Durham could adjust to all of Murray’s off target passes.
    I’ve never seen a UGA QB miss more wide open receivers with overthrows.
    I predicted Murray’s numbers would drop this year to all my friends because those 2 WR’s covered up Murray’s inaccuracy.
    There’s really been no one so far that can adjust to Murray’s wild passes.

    Like

  6. AusDawg85

    We have a target. His name is Mitchell. When we stop “respecting” more senior players and let the fastest guy on the field go on the fly route on 1st & Bomb we’ll have our deep threat.

    P.S. Boykin on one side and Mitchell on the other is a sure way to get the safeties into a deep sweat. Play cover 2 deep and watch Orson and/or Bennett get the middle ball over the LB’s heads. Wait…what’s that? Oh, we can’t hold our blocks long enough for the play to develop? Well, damn.

    Like

  7. Senator,

    I’m a little late to the party, but I know where Mr. Connelly gets his target data. Here is the target data for Georgia this season. My apologies for the lack of formatting.

    target catch
    Malcolm Mitchell 18 14
    Tavarres King 18 9
    Orson Charles 14 8
    Michael Bennett 8 7
    Rantavious Wooten 7 2
    Bruce Figgins 5 5
    Marlon Brown 5 4
    Isaiah Crowell 5 3
    Richard Samuel IV 4 3
    Brandon Boykin 2 2
    Taylor Bradberry 2 1
    Israel Troupe 1 1
    Aron White 1 1
    Brandon Harton 1 0
    Branden Smith 1 0

    Like

    • SwanSong

      A lot of those misses were overthrows 5-10 yards beyond the receivers. So it’s not as simple as “catch rate” or “drop rate”. I don’t know if the receivers ran the routes wrong, or Murray missed with the overthrow. It’s hard to imagine Tavarres or Charles running routes incorrectly with their experience, and they have the highest drop rates.

      Like

  8. Xon

    In other words, being an offense that is good at the long ball is much better as far as producing wins than a dink-and-dunk passing offense is. Interesting…given some of the comments on our O we’ve been hearing lately.

    “Bring back the good ol’ days where we just did ball control and let the D get us to a 21-14 win”. Explosiveness matters more than people give it credit for. It matters more to football than slugging % matters in baseball.

    Like

    • SwanSong

      UGA: 10 passing td’s.
      Ala/SC: 2 pass td’s
      Flo: 3 pass td’s
      LSU: 4 pass td’s

      Bombs away isn’t working for UGA.

      SEC leadwers arn’t using the Bombs away approach to win games.

      Like

      • Xon

        We aren’t using it in our losses this year, either. Not all passing TDs are “bombs.”

        The whole point of the article Senator linked to is that Georgia is *not* doing a lot of long passing this year. We are doing more “dink and dunk” style passing. But now here come the Doomsday Dawgs, to say “yeah omg we keep first and bombing and then we loose!!!1!”

        Again, the point of the statistical analysis is that teams that have a long passing game tend to *win*. Georgia was an anamoly last year, in that they had a long passing game but did not win (though, in games where AJ played, they were above .500 in conference, as the chart in the article shows). To use this as proof that our long passing is the *problem* means you are not reading.

        Like

        • SwanSong

          There were games where AJ made no difference really, like the first quarter against Florida, and the Bowl game against UCF.

          Like

          • Biggus Rickus

            Holy fucking shit. Do you think receivers put up 100 yard games every week? Is a game a quarter now? I’ve read through some of these comment threads and yours are the dumbest comments I’ve seen in a while.

            Like

            • SwanSong

              Deal is, can’t say AJ was the reason because of games like Colorado, UF, UCF, it’s just isn’t true. Sorry that bothers you.

              Like

            • SwanSong

              Compared to 2007-2009, 3rd down conversion rate on offense have been down under Murray in 2010/2011, sacks are up by 200%+ 2010/2011, and the team’s record is 7-9 with Murray at QB (Richt’s worst year under any QB in 25 years). Murray had 2 NFL receivers last year, so receivers arn’t the issue, Murray went 6-7 with those 2 guys. If you look at the 3 biggest games for Murray so far recently–UF–Bowl game–UCF, Murray has 2-4 TO’s in each one. Richt’s coached a few Heisman trophy wnners at QB, so Richt’s not the problem either. Bobo’s QB’s, pre-Murray, have all done well.

              Like

  9. SwanSong

    AJ really made zero difference at all in ultimate outcome, wins. We didn’t beat a great team with him, or without him, last season. Which great team did AJ help us beat?

    Like

  10. Biggus Rickus

    So is SwanSong the same dude who was saying Ealey was better than Herschel under a different name?

    Like