Daily Archives: December 1, 2011
If you follow through Year2’s statistical analysis,
… I determine on average how each team’s offense and defense perform relative to their opponents’ season averages. For instance, Georgia scored 31.73 points per game this season. Its opponents allowed on average 25.08 points per game. So, Georgia scored 6.65 points per game more than the average team would have against the same schedule.
I did the same thing for both points and yards for Georgia’s defense and LSU’s offense and defense. When you combine those figures with the teams’ season averages, you actually get two different score and yardage projections. For instance, take LSU’s offensive average of 37.18 and subtract Georgia’s defensive average of allowing 6.02 points per game less than opponents average and you get LSU scoring 31.16 points. But then, take Georgia’s defensive average of allowing 19.36 points per game and add the 13.65 points per game that LSU averages above what its opponents allow and you get the Tigers scoring 33.01 points. I average the two projections in each category together then to get the final results.
… here’s where you wind up.
At the very end of the process, I have LSU defeating Georgia 32-17 with the Bulldogs outgaining the Tigers 321-319. Such an outcome isn’t out of the realm of possibility given that LSU was outgained in each of its wins against Oregon, West Virginia and Alabama. These projections suggest that Georgia will hold its own, but the better team will come out ahead in the end.
To me, they suggest something else. Look at these stats from the three wins he cites:
- Turnover margin: Oregon +3; West Virginia +4; Alabama 0
- LSU FGs made/attempted in those three games vs. opponents’ FGs made/attempted: LSU 5/6; opp. 4/8
There’s a lot of hidden yardage in those LSU scoring figures. Georgia has to avoid giving LSU those extra/wasted opportunities to have a decent shot.
If Spurrier had ever suggested something like this during his Gainesville days, he’d have been laughed out of town.
USC Head Football Coach Steve Spurrier said his team will receive rings if his team wins its upcoming bowl game.
Spurrier made that announcement on his radio call-in show Wednesday night.
A win would give USC its 11th win of the season, the most in school history, and Spurrier said the rings would be a way to honor that historic accomplishment.
The over/under on how soon the first one of these collector’s items hits eBay? Four years, tops.
Wayne Knight is both a former Georgia undergrad and a funny guy.
… Are you that nerdy? But you were the mascot of the Georgia football team?
I don’t know where that … that’s one of those interesting things that live on, an IMDb moment from somewhere. I was never the mascot of the Georgia football team.
Really? It made sense to me.
I also said to someone at one point, “I’m taking classes in fixed wing aircraft.” Just to see what would happen — on some NBC interview about eighteen years ago — and it still shows up like it’s solid gold fact. There is no fact-checking on tertiary celebrities. You can say whatever you’d like and it will just rise up again. No, I was never the mascot. The mascot of the University of Georgia is the bulldog. An actual dog. So those who believe it was me in disguise, it’s rather insulting.
Wikipedia’s bought into that story, by the way.
If you want to have some fun, take a little time to visit Washington State message boards and blogs this morning (yes, Virginia, they do exist). The “pinch me, I’m dreaming” quality to the fan base’s reaction to the news that Mike Leach is the new head coach will bring a smile to your jaded face. Those folks are coming from a completely different place than the Ohio State people are and it just strikes me that theirs is the more innocent joy.
But that’s not the interesting thing to follow this offseason. Here’s the thing to watch, instead. There are many other programs, several with higher profiles than Wazzou, looking for new head coaches now. As the slots get filled, measure the fans’ enthusiasm for the new hires against that for Leach. And then watch to see if the fans’ money gets put where their mouths are in the same way, too. (WSU’s AD has already ponied up with $4 million for coaching salaries; you know he’ll be pushing supporters to do their fair share.)
I bring this up only to show again what cowards many athletic directors are. Maryland could have had Leach a year ago, but chickened out and brought in Randy Edsall. After a two-win season and a massive drop off in fan support, that move’s not looking too good now. I expect it’s going to look a lot worse in the next two or three years.
If I’m gonna make ’em, I ought to have the guts to go back and see how accurate I was, right? (Schools listed in the same order as the preseason post, with this year’s regular season won-loss totals.)
AUBURN (7-5, 4-4)
- The easy part was predicting the fall off. The loss of all that senior talent, along with the early departures of Cam and Fairley, made that inevitable. If there was a surprise, it’s that Gus Malzahn was so ordinary this year. Accuracy grade: B+
ARKANSAS (10-2, 6-2)
- Pretty much nailed the Hogs’ season with this: “They’ll win 10 again, I think, because Tyler Wilson likely works out well. But the defense being a notch below Alabama’s and LSU’s may mean that’s the ceiling.” Accuracy grade: A
LSU (12-0, 8-0)
- I thought LSU would lose two games for a number of reasons. The Tigers didn’t. Accuracy grade: C-
ALABAMA (11-1, 7-1)
- “This team appears to have fewer flaws than any other team in the SEC. ‘Bama will go as far as its offense will take it.” Yup. Accuracy grade: A
MISSISSIPPI STATE (6-6, 2-6)
- I foresaw a drop, but I’m not sure I expected as big a one as MSU had. Accuracy grade: B-
MISSISSIPPI (2-10, 0-8)
- They “won’t be worse than last year”? Au contraire. Accuracy grade: D+
SOUTH CAROLINA (10-2, 6-2)
- I got the 10 wins right. Not the winning the East part, though. But Garcia was the essence of a “Con”, wasn’t he? Accuracy grade: B+
FLORIDA (6-6, 3-5)
- I knew things weren’t going to be better – the scheme change on offense and the October schedule made that a given – but I didn’t expect they’d be so much worse. Accuracy grade: D+
GEORGIA (10-2, 7-1)
- I took a pass, but honestly, going into the season, I thought you could make a case for anywhere from 6 to 10 wins. Accuracy grade: Incomplete
TENNESSEE (5-7, 1-7)
- “… this team isn’t as talented as the top teams in the East (let alone the West). Any kind of bad luck with injuries and it’s easy to see UT miss out on playing in a bowl.” True ‘dat, but there’s still no excuse for that embarrassing loss to Kentucky. Accuracy grade: B
KENTUCKY (5-7, 2-6)
- “This just isn’t that impressive a team on paper.” Not on the field, either. Accuracy grade: A-
VANDERBILT (6-6, 2-6)
- I didn’t see the magnitude of this season’s improvement coming. Then again, I didn’t see James Franklin being as big a dick as he was, either. At least I wasn’t alone in that. Accuracy grade: D+
Do you think I’m being fair with my self-assessment? Did you disagree with any of my preseason calls? Let me know in the comments.
We’re getting closer…
- Mike Bobo sensed that some of his players felt the Boise State game was over in the third quarter. That feeling hasn’t surfaced since then.
- This is ugly, regardless of how much of it you buy.
- If you’ve missed David Hale, he’s back for a special one-week engagement. (Hopefully his curse won’t follow him.)
- Mike Leach on statistics.
- Frankly, you can look like a complete tool for a lot less than $41.95.
- This is a great video, but what really sells it for me is tacking on fourth-and-Reggie Ball at the end. Schwing!
- cocknfire posts on why divisions are good for rivalries.
- This sure seems like a lot of work to say Ted Roof’s not a great defensive coordinator.