If you follow through Year2′s statistical analysis,
… I determine on average how each team’s offense and defense perform relative to their opponents’ season averages. For instance, Georgia scored 31.73 points per game this season. Its opponents allowed on average 25.08 points per game. So, Georgia scored 6.65 points per game more than the average team would have against the same schedule.
I did the same thing for both points and yards for Georgia’s defense and LSU’s offense and defense. When you combine those figures with the teams’ season averages, you actually get two different score and yardage projections. For instance, take LSU’s offensive average of 37.18 and subtract Georgia’s defensive average of allowing 6.02 points per game less than opponents average and you get LSU scoring 31.16 points. But then, take Georgia’s defensive average of allowing 19.36 points per game and add the 13.65 points per game that LSU averages above what its opponents allow and you get the Tigers scoring 33.01 points. I average the two projections in each category together then to get the final results.
… here’s where you wind up.
At the very end of the process, I have LSU defeating Georgia 32-17 with the Bulldogs outgaining the Tigers 321-319. Such an outcome isn’t out of the realm of possibility given that LSU was outgained in each of its wins against Oregon, West Virginia and Alabama. These projections suggest that Georgia will hold its own, but the better team will come out ahead in the end.
To me, they suggest something else. Look at these stats from the three wins he cites:
- Turnover margin: Oregon +3; West Virginia +4; Alabama 0
- LSU FGs made/attempted in those three games vs. opponents’ FGs made/attempted: LSU 5/6; opp. 4/8
There’s a lot of hidden yardage in those LSU scoring figures. Georgia has to avoid giving LSU those extra/wasted opportunities to have a decent shot.