Georgia, it’s not you. It’s them.

Bill Connelly, on today’s match up:

It is easy to assume that Georgia wasn’t a very good team when they began the season 0-2, then they improved as they knocked off a relatively weak final 10 games of the season. This is not necessarily true. They ran into a buzzsaw in week one against Boise State (perhaps nobody in the country would have beaten the Broncos that day), and they encountered a healthy amount of bad luck in losing to South Carolina the next week. The signs were there from the start — if chemistry and effort were not damaged by the poor start, the wins were going to roll in.

The goal of Adj. Points is to determine how a team would have performed against a perfectly average opponent, and the graph above shows that the Dawgs would have gone 11-1 if playing said average opponent each week. Their propensity for sitting on the ball in the second half (once they had built a decent lead) held them down a bit, especially in the middle portion of the season (Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Tennessee), but both the offense and defense have spent most of their season on the healthy side of national averages.

Of course, LSU has still been better. But we already knew that.

There are lots of other good points Bill brings up there.  His bottom line isn’t unexpected.  For Georgia to win today, it’ll to have to win the double positive battles.  Given that LSU sports the nation’s best turnover margin, that’s going to take some work.


Filed under Georgia Football

22 responses to “Georgia, it’s not you. It’s them.

  1. TennesseeDawg

    We have shown no consistent ability to run the football in the last couple of games so this boils down to Murray throwing the ball. If Murray is hot we have a puncher’s chance, if not we get curb stomped.

  2. timphd

    If both teams bring their A game, Georgia loses. But, if LSU is only B+ and UGA is on it’s A, then Georgia can win. I know it is a big if, but it isn’t that far fetched. I don’t think the front line talent gap is that big, just the depth.

  3. AthensHomerDawg

    LSU is due to come out flat and miss fire. Lets hope it happens today.

  4. Red Blackman

    Last I checked Georgia had the SEC leader in sacks, interceptions and tackles for loss on their side of the ball.

    Also, 3 LSU defensive backs lead the team in tackles. They are either looking into the backfield or other teams are getting to the second level quite a bit. Against a play action offense, I’ll take either one to be a good sign.

  5. TL (GA Law 1998)

    I find it Interesting that the game we *would* have lost during the year was against …. Tennessee! Really? I don’t think Bill’s advanced stats really deal well with the “shut it down” offense we ran in the second half of our games, which could provide some hope.

    That said, I think for us to win we need to jump ahead of LSU early, keep our foot on the pedal, and keep it up late. Basically, if we play this game in the same way that we played against Auburn in the first half — and, in saying that, I’m saying we need to force turnovers…which is no small task — then we have a decent chance to win today.

    I’m a Georgia fan and have been for many, many years…I honestly just hope we are not embarrassed.

    • Spence

      Even if they whoop our ass, there is nothing to be embarrassed about. This team was 6-7 last year and has turned back into a force. This is not a meter stick game, nor is it indicative of how next year will go (though we are young and trending up). It’s just a free spin of the wheel and a chance to play the undisputed best team in the country.

      In other words, getting here in and of itself eliminates any possibility of embarrassment.

      I hope UGA fans stay till the end of the game no matter the score and cheer our guys off the field. They brought Hope back, and deserve praise no matter what happens.

      • Dawgfan Will

        Damn, I wish I could be there. Those boys definitely need to know what they’ve meant to us this season.

      • Cojones

        DGD, Spence. My thoughts exactly! So all the fans as well as the Dawgs should be relaxed. Enjoy the beer and wait for ‘Tree, Gilliard, Rambo, Herrera and co to light them up, no matter the score.

        I suggest following the game by imagining you are in the Dawg player’s helmet who has, throws or gets the ball. Should be a lot of fun and that’s what college ball is about.

        Flush LS Lieux!

    • Will (the other one)

      It may look difficult to force turnovers, but I just can’t believe Jefferson and Lee have turned around that much as QBs. Jordan Jefferson was a liability for the Tiggers last year, I can’t believe he’s pulled off a full 180 just yet.

      • The Lone Stranger

        Right…a few poorly timed tosses by the Roadhouse Stomper may open this game up a bit for the Dawgs. But to make that a reality the running lanes must be attended to on early downs.

        • Cojones

          Flush LS Lieux!

          In responce to your request several days ago. Since lieux means “lavatory” in Fr and it’s pronounciation is in keeping with the British word for toilet, thought this best fit your mother tongue request. Your friend, Tonto, helped out with his French Indian friends (“Yanquis” in Tonto’s Apache mother’s tongue). The practice of taking scalps also comes from the French whose trappers first taught it to the “French” indians.

  6. Boz

    Since turnovers are about 33% luck, I hope I’m saying I’d rather be lucky then good a couple times today, but that may not be enough.. Need some of each to win.

  7. TrailMan

    Mark Richt has .749 win %, Les Miles .729. I think that slight difference will become obvious today who is the better coach, and I think Richt will out-coach Miles.

  8. TrailMan

    LSU reminds me of South Carolina’s defense, not as many playmaker son the d-line, but big & strong front 7, and good db’s. We put up over 40 points on South Carolina, so I think will light LSU up.

  9. TrailMan

    Guess which team is the ONLY SEC team that Les Miles has a LOSING record to?


  10. Dawgfan Will

    TrailMan, I am intrigued by your ideas and would like to subscribe to your newsletter.

  11. Back in the day, we used to sit in the stands after a losing game during a losing season to show that we supported the program & was behind the efforts to turn things around. The players did not like losing either & the program always eventually got back on track (Going Down The Track).,