2011 SDPI doesn’t blame Bobo.

Matt Melton’s got his SDPI numbers up for last year’s SEC season.  [To refresh your memory, here's a brief explanation behind the math:  "In the 2011 SEC regular season, conference play only, championship game excluded, the average SEC team gained and allowed 2612.33 yards. The standard deviation for yards gained (offense) was 511.33 yards. The standard deviation for yards allowed (defense) was 633.43 yards. Arkansas gained 3217 yards and allowed 2912 yards. Their offensive SDPI was 1.18 = [(3217-2612.33)/511.33]. Their defensive SDPI was -0.47 = [(2612.33-2912)/633.43]. Their total SDPI was 0.71. This number ranked 5th in the SEC.”]

Let’s cut to the chase and see his results.

Boy, there are a few things that jump out there.

  • Not having to play Alabama and LSU was good for your offensive health.  How else do you explain Georgia finishing ahead of Arkansas in offense?
  • That being said, the Hog defense wasn’t exactly championship caliber.
  • That being said, South Carolina didn’t play ‘Bama or LSU either and finished behind Georgia in offense, too.
  • That it was LSU in the SECCG instead of Alabama suggests how much special teams play mattered.
  • But in fairness, perhaps LSU was better on offense than we gave the Tigers credit for.
  • That Georgia’s season wasn’t more dominant than the SDPI numbers indicate suggests how much special teams play and turnover margin mattered.

There’s one thing that doesn’t jump out until you look at last year’s SDPI results.

I referred to Vanderbilt’s 2010 numbers as “epic suck”.  What Franklin did in one season in the toughest football conference in America is remarkable.  Especially when you consider that 2010 wasn’t a momentary aberration.  Here’s the SEC from 2009:

That’s an amazing reversal of fortunes.  If the guy can ever get past the point of his on-field demeanor being a distraction, he’s going to be recognized as one of the best coaches in the country.  Which begs the question of how long Vandy can hold on to him.

One other thing those seasonal numbers show is that Georgia’s been on a steady progression over that time period.  The defense took a significant jump from Martinez’ last year to Grantham’s first, but it’s the offense which took off last season.  The trend makes you wonder what might be in store if the Dawgs are able to get their act together with special teams play and offensive turnovers, like the elite teams in the West did.

37 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, SEC Football, Stats Geek!

37 responses to “2011 SDPI doesn’t blame Bobo.

  1. I think it’s definitely clear if #11 can eliminate the backbreaking turnover without changing the style of play and we get better in the return games, we’ll be tough to handle. More games of aggressive play-calling like the Florida and Auburn games would help, too. Let’s win 12 or 13 in the regular season and let the chips fall where they may.

  2. HVL Dawg

    I wonder if fake punts count against the defense.

  3. AthensHomerDawg

    Concerning our offense production. The week before we traveled to Vandyland, Satan beat them 34-0. Bobo nearly matched that offensive production with 33 points of his own. Our D let Vandy rack up 28 points. Two very strong defenses with two very different results.

    • AHD, there was a kick-off return for a TD and a fake punt for a 4th down conversion in there leading to a TD, too. That was the one game where the 2010 inability to contain the zone read with Rodgers and Zac Stacy bit us. We were a Drew Butler tackle on a blocked punt from having the debate of whether 9 regular season wins would be enough to keep the current staff employed. The season could have gone completely sideways after the Nashville “Near-Miss.”

      • Bevo

        Great points. When we look at the final scores almost a year later, we often forget about points resulting from special teams mistakes and points from offensive turnovers — both of which were huge last year.

        For instance, against South Carolina I think the offense gave up at least two touchdowns directly and set up SC inside our five yard line another time.

        Against better defenses our offense was really not that great. Our special teams play was weak against everyone except the woefully outmatched.

        • Bevo, good points. Except for the turnovers, the offense was outstanding against South Carolina. I think we ended with close to 500 yards of offense and 42 points with no short fields. Turnovers and special teams did us in against them. We even handled Lattimore until late in the 4th quarter, and Jeffrey had the one TD on a desperation heave from Garcia where Jarvis Jones (?) was getting ready to bury him. The defense deserved a much better fate in that one.

          I hope we put more defensive starters and top reserves on special teams because I think offensive players just think about their responsibility and don’t play with instinct. To play on special teams, you have to play your assignment but have to be ready for the unexpected as well.

          • Bevo

            Agree. Hopefully Richt’s attention to special teams during the offseason will remedy some of those issues. With respect the kicking game, it’s anyone’s guess.

            Our defense did deserve a little better at times last season. Hopefully both sides of the ball will be up to the task this fall. I’m still worried about the o-line.

      • AthensHomerDawg

        Nice catch ee! Well now we know! It is True That Painful Memories Can Be Blocked Out. It must have been the repetitive nature of those memories that triggered it. ;-)

    • Krautdawg

      I have to back up ee, Grantham admitted after the Vandy game that he hadn’t prepared for Rodgers and the read-option. Still, the D only gave up 14. Which is funny, because Arky played them the following week — i.e. with a week to prepare for Rodgers — and still gave up 28. Muschamp’s D then allowed 21 against them later. All in all, not bad for Grantham coordinating on the fly, especially if you consider that he didn’t see any read-option in the NFL.

      • Kraut, I think Larry Smith started the game for Vandy and was completely ineffective. They brought in Rodgers and we looked clueless. After our inability to defend the zone read in 2010, I would have thought that CTG would have prepared for the zone read every week. If I remember correctly, Rodgers all gained a bunch of yards with his feet when the pocket broke down as well. Very maddening game overall last year in Music City. We should have beaten them like a rented mule.

        • Krautdawg

          Yeah, we should’ve, but the D staff assumed that Smith would stay in for the entire game. Funny thing is this: Rodgers gained most yards scrambling when the pocket broke down, which means that when he scrambled, (a) it wasn’t on zone-read plays and (b) our guys had covered or beaten their assignments. We were simply either missing a QB spy, or had brought him on a blitz. I doubt we’ll see the same problem again.

          • Kraut, you’re right about Rodgers’ yards rushing. They came when everything broke down around him. If I remember correctly, Stacy got most of his yards running off the zone read. I thought I was watching a rerun of the Game That Shall Not Be Named in Memphis in the second half that night.

            • Krautdawg

              Goodness ee, you had to mention THAT game. It’s fine though — I accepted it as the price of the Dream Team, but only because I had enough Laphroaig to tranquilize three Irishmen. Maybe we should see if Cojones can bring some, eh, relaxants to the next bowl viewing …

              • Cojones

                While I have never dealt and wouldn’t ever carry an amount past a misdemeanor charge, I do share. I don’t remember the game . Is that enough smoke for you guys?

  4. charlottedawg

    So is sdpi just a fancy word for Z score?

  5. Statistics can be misleading. You can have a score of 100 – 0 against cupcakes or rebuilding teams 10 times out of ten which can definitely skew statistics and can hide one sided loss to solid teams like LSU, and Boise is just not acceptable especially when you are watching an offensive calling that seem to be coming out of a hat. It is still BOBO fault. LOL

  6. StirBaby's ManPiece

    Cool data set. I know it’s apples to oranges, but what do Missouri & Texas A&M look like, and what’s your take on how that translates based on personnel and coaching changes?

    • You can find Matt’s Big 12 SDPI data here. The interesting thing I gleaned from that is, at least in conference, TAMU and Missouri were two of the better defensive teams in the B12 last season.

  7. I hope I do not hear this typical excuse from BOBO again and again this season, “The players did not execute”.
    I would rather hear from him, “I did not get the right series of calls to win”.
    I hope the malady of BOBO and MURRAY of “Paralysis by analysis” has been totally cured and not ingrained. Maladies like these tend to come out unfortunately in the most dire situations when “PANIC” can overtake a more measured action to protect the minimum winning edge a team can have.

    • What happens though when like against LSU he does call the right play and players simply don’t execute (i.e. two dropped passes that would have been TD’s). I guess it is Bobo’s fault on those plays too for not calling a play where the receivers could have dropped the pass.

  8. Irishdawg

    The offense’s problem is consistency. When Murray is in a groove and getting protection, he will slice a defense to pieces, especially if a running game allows for play action. If that’s not happening, well, that’s when things get thrown at my house.

  9. Will Trane

    Like I said we are just a notch above Vandy in football, but not close to them in basketball and baseball. Men’s big three at UGA.
    Historically the Dawgs have had bad games in Nashville. Why? Probably mental from the coaches and players point. Sorta like a walk over. Not smart.
    For me the offensive line play at UGA has been a joke the past three seasons. Plus absolutely no running game. Perhaps a corner is being turned. More depth. A position coach who may be better than we think. Some O line players with a nasty damn attitutde toward opposing defenses and solid, consistent technique. And just maybe a quality stable of running backs. Watching LSU against us in the second half was a thing of beauty. May not like it, but it was good to see good line play.
    We can talk about special teams, but what good does it do. CMR and staff have not made that turn yet. For me the answere lies in the bowl game. They just do not seem to mentally understand the importance of it.
    Bobo. Can he coach a QB to All-American consideration? He has a QB with two years SEC experience, but the mind-set of a tiny-mite on the field. Hopefully, as a junior he has more knowledge and maturity.
    What comes across to me about the men’s big three coaching staff at UGA lately is that these guys are just not savvy and quick compared Spurrier, Miles, Saban, and Franklin. Franklin made a good move by changing QBs and adjusting his offense. Sometimes it is painful to watch our offensive staff on the sideline in a tight game. Fretting and unsure…written all over them.
    Will 2012/2013 be a year of decisions for McGarity based on the results of the past three seasons in the men’s big three? Records and statistics show a lot.

    • Dawgaholic

      This is the SEC. There is not a big three. There is football and everything else. Golf and Tennis are basically as important as basketball and baseball.

      To say we are just a notch above Vandy is ludicrous. We’ve lost to them once since Goff was the head ball coach.

  10. Hill Dawg

    Don’t try to confuse me with facts. I know its Bobo’s fault. He’s so predictable. Just like all those stats……..wait ….never mind.

  11. Cojones

    What true stats don’t tell you, you project madeup analysis to take it further, eric. The good thing about stats (instead of madeup stats ) is the ability to see around the empty arguments. One can take your “analytical observations ” and turn them to read opposite what you project. Using true stats, the std dev of over 500yds should have sufficed to give an argument for the cupcake games, but you tried to make it anti-coach. Doesn’t work here any longer. We can analyse for ourselves the meanings of these numbers and they don’t come out with a negative projection vs a coach; just the opposite, this shows Bobo better than all except Bama. I’ll bet money that if he had the RBs that Saban had, he would have won the SEC. That was the point. Your rant vs Bobo can be used against every O coor. of every team in the SEC and the results will put them below Bobo.

    The data indicate that Bobo ended up second only to Bama. His numbers have been upward for the last 3 yrs. His numbers progressed better than Grantham’s, but amazingly, no one seems to see that Mark Richt has brought both his O and D along side by side and that the entire team projects well among the competition. I would suggest that some on here could benefit by accepting good numbers of a true indication of team strength and enjoy this coming season of football. Instead, if you want to cover your eyes so as not to see the games fully (and analytically if you wish) and taste your venom on every offensive down, be my guest.

    • IveyLeaguer

      Wow! So, in other words, we can expect an offensive unit this fall that is consistent, efficient, doesn’t routinely shoot itself in the foot with penalties and missed assignments, that simply gets the job done and doesn’t beat itself?

      That great! Then, with our Defense, we should beat Bama or LSU for the SEC Title and win our 3rd NC!!! Will Murray win the Heisman Trophy?
      ~~~

  12. Like I said we are just a notch above Vandy in football

    Whatever you’re smoking, I’d like to get me some of that.

    • Cojones

      Doesn’t appear to me that it’s good quality stuff. Too much smoke for the amount of THC inhaled tends to allow nitrites and other inhaled leaf smoke contaminants to overcome good reasoning and project negatively.

      • Don’t get me wrong, I’m sure there are some legitimate criticisms in WT’s comment. However, when you open up with such an outlandish statement as that it tends diminish the impact of any legitimate points you make afterwards.

  13. Cojones

    STs were projected by some as what affected the losses most and I agree. I expect fully that the ST stat will change drastically and allow us to play full speed toward a good championship flavored season.

    Go Dawgs!

  14. charlottedawg

    imho yards are a poor metric for evaluating an offense or defense. 1) scoreboards tally points not yards 2) it completely ignores special teams and turnovers which can have a big effect on #1. The object of offense is to score points, not eat clock, not gain yards, just points, and if you don’t believe me all I’ll say is no kickoff returned for a td was ever criticized for putting the D back on the field. A td’s net effect on the scoreboard is 6 points regardless of if it comes by pick 6, an 80 yd drive, or a ko returned. Yards are a crappy metric.

    • Cojones

      Actually you make an even better case for Bobo’s ability. Considering what we all know about how those plays and overall ST performance were downers, he still rose above it. The only team better on O had a good ST to add to their ability to score. Bobo thanks you for your tic upwards on his meter.

      Exactly what metric would you use to compare since you don’t think yards are a good one? The number of hands that touch their balls in a game?

  15. charlottedawg

    Cojones, the best stat avaliable would total points scored by O – points off turnovers. It would let you know the net effect of the O. Since I’m lazy I default to points scored as a rough measure, a measure that Georgia’s been pretty consistent in under Bobo (avg 30 pts a game almost every year) hence why I think Bobo’s a decent OC. BTW my point was that I don’t like yardage as a stat not that I don’t like Bobo. Are there things on O that bother me? sure, like O line development, although I’m not sure if that’s a MR or MB problem. But by and large I think the offense scores points which renders about 95% of the conventional arguments against Bobo null and void.