Georgia and Steele’s Power Ratings

Phil Steele uses a mysterious set of nine power ratings to come up with his list of top forty schools each season.  He describes one of those in his mags, but we don’t know his method for the rest.  However, he has posted a list of all the schools which show out on them, in terms of all that project to no worse than one-loss seasons.

Georgia projects as one of his nine teams which could go undefeated.  You’d have to think that power rating has something to do with scheduling, as Steele doesn’t list Alabama as one of those nine schools.

What most of his power ratings indicate, though, is an 11-1 season for the Dawgs, with the sole loss coming in Jacksonville – and that loss costing Georgia the SEC East title.  That makes me curious, though.  11-1 in the SEC is a season good enough for a BCS game; with no SECCG, would that suffice to make Georgia fans happy about the direction of the program?  What do you guys think?

(By the way, if Tennessee goes 11-1 this year, I’ll have to perform a random, senseless act here at the blog as penance for all the aspersions I’ve cast SOD’s way.  Don’t make me debase myself like that, Vols.  Please.)

30 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water

30 responses to “Georgia and Steele’s Power Ratings

  1. I would definitely be positive about an 11-1 season, but I don’t get the scenario for how we finish 11-1 and possibly not play in the SECCG. His scenario means that UF either finishes undefeated in the conference or loses just to LSU. I just don’t see either of those happening with the QB situation in Gainesville. There’s probably a segment of the fan base that will howl for CMR’s head if this were to happen.

  2. RocketDawg

    As much as I love Steele and have a lot of respect for the time and effort he puts into analyzing each and every team I don’t see anyway on God’s Green Earth that Tennessee or Florida go 11-1. Both of them may beat us this year since we have a tendency to crap the bed at the most inopportune times, but I don’t see how Tennessee is going to beat Alabama and/or Florida and I don’t see where Florida will beat everyone but LSU.

    I agree with the above poster, how in the hell will 11-1 not win us the East?

    • Good points on UT/UF. UT probably loses to Bama, UGA, Mizzou, USCe & UF and may lose to Vandy. UF probably loses to LSU, splits USCe & UGA at best, and may lose to TAMU (1st SEC game at Kyle Field) & Mizzou. The East comes down to whether we can at least split the 2 games in Columbia and win in Jacksonville.

  3. Macallanlover

    I appreciate the effort and amount of detail Phil Steele provides us CFB junkies (even if I am forced to have eye surgery or use a magnifying glass to read the mag). He is one of those geeky accumulators of statistical data to the 11th power but is often confused by how to take all that info and reach solid conclusions. (Similar to how many Harvard Business MBAs can come in as consultants and breakdown the entire business operation of a Fortune 50 company in short order but be totally ignorant of operational/managerial issues.)

    UGA could very well lost to Florida, teams can lose to anyone on any given Saturday, and they may go 11-1, but those two will not happen in combination. If the Dawgs go 11-1, they will be in the SECCG and I will be damned glad to offer anyone odds on that prediction being wrong.

    And Steele is way too bright to make any season predictions without using the schedule for any team as a major factor. The schedule strength for any team/conference has become the great divider among CFB fans and is at the heart of most of the crucial issues. It is why a playoff of some sort is absolutely necessary IF you want to crown someone as a NC.

  4. DawgFaithful

    I just want to beat Florida. I’d be happy with 10 wins and no SEC championship as long as we beat Florida twice in a row. It hasn’t happened since 1989. I hate Florida

  5. DawgPhan

    UGA, UT, and UF all being 11-1 would be a funny turn as everyone seems to think the SEC East is down. Would we all be talking about how Bama missed playing UGA and UF in that scenario?

    That also means that USC takes a step back. I just dont see how UT gets to 10 wins this season.

  6. Spike

    Oh yeah, I’m good with 11-1.

  7. BigD

    Considering I predict us to lose 2-3 games this season, I would be ecstatic with going 11-1. I don’t see it happening unless we get pleasantly surprised by our O-line, but it is something to be hopeful for. Our schedule isn’t a cake walk since we’ll get the best thrown at us from Mizz, SCe, UF, Vandy, UTk, and Tech. At least 3 of those games are very “losable” in my opinion.

    • OKDawg

      I agree that those first 3 you mention are all “losable” (Mizzou, UF, USC). I can see us losing 2 games this season, so 11-1 would make me happy. But I would just hate to lose to USC again…and of course always hate a loss to UF.

  8. Cojones

    I’m with Mac, including his example of how Steele works. I think Steele has a Dawg Biscuit in his heart and would love to be there if we win the big ones. That said, I think he had to go ahead and pick a way for FU to win after he said they will be the surprise of the East. That’s why things have become discumbobulated. His overexuberance led him toward giving Tenn each close game and then some. That’s where he got in trouble because it cheapens his pick of UGA.

    Ah, Steele. We wanted to be alone in your now fickle heart. We still love you; unrequited love, but we carry on.

  9. AthensHomerDawg

    UT and the bamboo farmer story have been linked by SOD himself. In that story it was five years before the bamboo started to produce. I don’t see the hillbillies as a patient and tolerant fan base and they won’t wait. SOD gets a 7-5 season with that WR tandem and a qb who should be able to play some pitch and catch with them. If he stays healthy. No running game. Georgia repeats as the State Football Champion of Tennessee for the second year in a row with a victory over UT and Vandy. The Senator is safe from any humiliation.

  10. Mayor of Dawgtown

    If you believe that Florida will go undefeated (regular season) and UGA will only have 1 loss (to Florida) then you have to believe that the exact same situation will be presented as last year’s BCSNCG only with different teams. Florida either wins the SECCG and plays UGA in a rematch in the BCSNCG or the West winner (LSU or Bama) wins and UGA plays that team in the BCSNCG.

    • Mayor of Dawgtown

      P.S. Frankly I just don’t see have UT can win 11 games or even 9 games. Looking at the Vols’ schedule there appear to be highly likely losses to Bama, Georgia and South Carolina as well as probable losses to Florida and Missouri. I think UT will lose its opener to NC State, too. The game against Vandy will determine if UT even has a .500 season. 11-1? NO WAY!!!

  11. Slaw Dawg

    To answer your question directly, an 11-1 season would suffice to make me happy about the direction of the program, even if that one loss was to (ugh!) the swamp lizards. But I don’t think either of those things (loss to UF or 11-1) will happen. I yield to no one in my respect for Mr. Steele, whose mag I’ve been buying and recommending for years now. But I believe firmly that we’ll beat UF; I think the monkey is off the Dawg back and that the series has turned back in favor of UGA. And I also think we’ll drop another couple of games–dunno which ones, but some combo of Mizzou, SC, AU, UT–we have too many questions on special teams and OL to do better than that. So since an 11-1 would beat my expectations, yeah, I’d take it as good evidence we won’t be stuck in 9-3/10-2 B+ range for years to come.

  12. AusDawg85

    I already blame Bobo for the loss to Floriduh.

  13. D.N. Nation

    Who catches the ball on Florida? Runs the ball? Throws the ball? Blocks for the guy who throws the ball?

    But hey, they have special team speed, so they’re the Juan Pierre of the SEC, baby.

  14. kdsdawg

    I guess some of you didn’t pay attention to the loss for Florida in the article, FSU. Thats how they win the SECE with us going 11-1 and UT going 11-1.

  15. JAXDAWG

    Florida’s D will be good, but tell me, how are they going to score?

    • Mayor of Dawgtown

      Running back INTs and Kickoff/punt returns for TDs and the fake punt. Those things are usually good for at least 21 points against the Dawgs.

  16. There is no way UGA leaves the Florida game on the table with a shot to go 12-0. If we make it to Florida undefeated, we leave the WLOCP with a W and we will make it 12-0 to play Bama or LSU in the SECCG. I think we will win that too, and get our chance at glory once again.

    Once a DAWG, always a DAWG… How sweet it is!

  17. Always Someone Else's Fault

    I don’t see anyone in the SEC going 11-1 or 12-0 this year, so, yeah, 11-1 would be wonderful and well above expectations — and definitely good enough for an SEC East nod. And that would put Richt a win again LSU away from USC for all the marbles.

  18. Rebar

    I wonder if an 11-1 season would staunch the flow of the CMR detractors?

  19. CanW

    Let’s get a few things straight.
    1. Spurrier has figured out how to beat Georgia (undefeated since 2009):
    a) take advantage of UGA’s lack of emphasis on special teams
    b) Blitz Aaron Murray early and often to rattle him & force interceptions and fumbles
    c) spread out your offensive line gaps and run the ball on the 3-4 for @200 yards per game with Marcus Lattimore, especially in the 4th quater due to UGA’s poor conditioning program

    2. UGA is not going to beat UF 2 years IN A ROW
    Phil Steele knows this, UF owns UGA. UGA has NEVER won 2 games IN A ROW in over 20 years against UF. It’s just not going to happen.

    • hailtogeorgia

      Glad we got those straight. In other news, you’re an idiot.

      • Macallanlover

        Come on, you have to feel for someone who faces life with a mind this delusional. And as everyone says these days “and they vote folks”. Scary, guys probably even has a drivers license.

  20. NRBQ

    Nostradumbass has spoken.

  21. Reptillicide

    I really don’t get why Steele is so bullish on Florida. He’s throwing all his eggs in the “2nd year head coaches have great years” basket. That’s basically all he’s betting on, too, because there’s no continuity on the offensive side of the ball for the Gators, and that’s where they struggled last year. Defensively they aren’t going to get any better than they were last year, so they’ve got to improve offensively to get better. Just don’t see why he’s so optimistic they will with a brand new OC and still no proven playmakers at wideout or RB.

    • I agree, but would add that Steele is very bullish on the Gators’ special teams, which he has ranked first in the country.

      Of course, we know how that worked out for Georgia last season. ;)