September 3, 2012 · 9:31 AM

Football Perspective on, well… football perspective

If you’re a fan of Chase Stewart’s Stuart’s version of the Simple Rating System, you might want to take a look at his post surveying Week 1 results.  Georgia’s disappointing win over Buffalo doesn’t even register on his “upset” scale.

Of course, it didn’t make his list of impressive wins by favorites, either.  But then again, only one SEC victory did.

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10 Comments

Filed under Stats Geek!

10 responses to “Football Perspective on, well… football perspective”

  1. ericdawg
    September 3, 2012 at 9:53 AM

    The better perspective after the first week in College football is which cupcakes or underdog did better, extremely better than expected.

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    • Chase Stuart
      September 3, 2012 at 9:58 AM

      From a straight math perspective, teams that were expected to lose and did lose, but outperformed expectations include: San Jose State, North Texas, Tulane, UTEP, UNLV, BUffalo, Bowling Green, Northern Illinois, and Syracuse.

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  2. Chase Stuart
    September 3, 2012 at 9:55 AM

    Thanks. I’ll even forgive the misspelling of the name.

    In case you just want SEC results… Four teams faced FCS schools and blew them out (Ole Miss, MSU, Missouri, and Arkansas); Texas A&M had its game postponed, leaving 9 other SEC teams facing FBS schools in week 1:

    Team           PF   Opp             PA   Loc            OppConf  EXPMOV  Diff
Alabama        41   Michigan        14   Arlington TX   B10      8.8     18.2
Tennessee      35   North Car. St   21   Atlanta GA     ACC      4.9      9.1
South Carolina 17   Vanderbilt      13   Road           SEC      3.1      0.9
Vanderbilt     13   South Carolina  17   Home           SEC     -3.1     -0.9
Auburn         19   Clemson         26   Atlanta GA     ACC     -6.0     -1.0
Florida        27   Bowling Green   14   Home           MAC     17.3     -4.3
Georgia        45   Buffalo         23   Home           MAC     28.7     -6.7
Kentucky       14   Louisville      32   Road           BgE     -9.5     -8.5
LSU            41   North Texas     14   Home           Sun     42.6    -15.6

    UGA ended up winning by 22, so it still “looks” like a blowout. But in any event, it was one of the more uninspiring performances by an SEC team this weekend, and I think “morally” we can agree that LSU’s game against UNT should just be thrown out and not put at the bottom.

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  3. What fresh hell is this?
    September 3, 2012 at 10:11 AM

    It’s an interesting system but a little simplistic. It seems to place too much emphasis on margin of victory and does not take into account many other important factors i.e. coaches that run up the score vs those that pull starters early or kill clock or both.
    Much of the margin of victory happens in garbage time.

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    • What fresh hell is this?
      September 3, 2012 at 10:13 AM

      I would suspect this system to be much more valuable when looking at teams that are competitively matched.

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    • Chase Stuart
      September 3, 2012 at 12:20 PM

      It’s not meant to be taken too seriously and is certainly subject to particular variations with a sample size of one. It was basically an excuse for me to catch up on what I missed this weekend in a different way than scanning 70 box scores, since I only got to watch a few games on Saturday.

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      • Cojones
        September 3, 2012 at 1:51 PM

        Actually it places things into perspective when picking against the spread in the first week. It’s a guessing game until teams show what they are and aren’t made of.

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  4. lrgk9
    September 3, 2012 at 10:56 AM

    Statistically irrelevant.

    Ahh, the Stuarts vis a vis the Stewarts. One a hard drinking warlike clan that claims honor and avers royalty versus a hard drinking warlike clan that claims honor and royal blood.

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