Georgia-Tennessee preview: a reluctant admission

Lord knows, I’ve tried to avoid coming to this conclusion, but I can’t deny it (and the football god of hubris will probably make me regret it).

I feel good about Georgia’s chances tomorrow.  Real good.  Not just to win, but to cover the spread.  Comfortably.

It’s not because I think after four games Georgia has become some sort of unstoppable colossus.  As confident as I feel about tomorrow’s outcome, I’m that nervous about what will happen a week from then in Columbia.  But that’s because South Carolina has two things Tennessee doesn’t have –  a credible running threat in Marcus Lattimore and a scary defensive front.

It seems to me that, stripping away all the statistical comparisons, assuming that Georgia won’t be in sleep mode given the profile of the game and the return of Ogletree and Rambo, and putting aside the any given Saturday threat of Georgia going minus-four in turnover margin, for Tennessee to have a legitimate chance to win this game, it has to be able to answer two questions in the affirmative:

1. Can the Vols run the ball as well as the Dawgs?
2. Can the Vols stop the run as well as the Dawgs?

Sorry, but I don’t see it.

On the first question, if it happens, it’ll be a first for a Derek Dooley-coached Tennessee team.  If you want to argue that the Vols’ rushing stats would look better in comparison to Georgia’s because the Dawgs haven’t faced a team with a defense as good as Florida’s, I think that’s the point.  Tennessee doesn’t rush well against good defenses.  Shoot me, but I think Georgia qualifies as having a good defense.

On the second question, whatever misgivings I had on that were due to the Georgia offensive line.  Maybe I’m reading way too much from my replay viewings of the Vandy game, but for the first time in a long while, I see a Georgia team that can run the ball credibly between the tackles.  And, yeah, Tennessee has a big ‘un in the middle, but he’s playing in a defense that’s still trying to figure its way around a new scheme.  Florida gashed these guys for 336 yards on the ground, and while some of that was on quarterback runs and an 80-yard scamper by Trey Burton, Gillislee managed 115 yards of his own and averaged over six yards a carry.  I don’t think the Vols can hold up against the Georgia troika at running back.

I love Justin Hunter.  He’s the best wide receiver in the SEC as far as I’m concerned.  And I can see why Mark Richt badly wanted Patterson.  Tennessee’s got a couple of other good receiving options for Tyler Bray.  But that’s not going to decide the game.  Instead, the team that has to bring a safety in for run support tomorrow loses.  And I don’t think that’ll be Georgia.  I think Grantham will be able to keep his guys back, hold UT’s passing game in front of them and wait for Jarvis and the rest of the defensive front to get to Bray.  (Any time you want to go into beast mode, Cornelius, feel free to do so.)

Readers, don’t hate me because they’re pretty.  I can’t help myself.  And believe me, I tried.

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Is this year’s LSU offense improved?

I finally got around to watching the replay of the Auburn-LSU game the other night, and I’ve got to say that Bill Connelly is spot on with this assessment:

There was no magic here. Auburn didn’t blitz much, even on passing downs, choosing instead to read and react, tackling well. Aside from those two swing passes, they remained disciplined. Auburn forced Mettenberger and the LSU offense to remain error-free and score on longer drives, and for the most part the Bayou Bengals couldn’t do it.

Make no mistake: this game was a lot closer to becoming an easy LSU win than an Auburn upset. Auburn’s only touchdown drive began at the LSU 26, and only twice did Auburn advance from their own territory into LSU’s. Auburn’s offense moved sideways or backwards almost as much as it moved forward, and LSU lineman Sam Montgomery was a wrecking ball, logging 3.5 tackles for loss and one sack. But Auburn proved that LSU’s offense is not necessarily in better shape than it was last year; if you tackle well and force LSU to make one more play to score, the Tigers may eventually stall out, botch a snap, miss a field goal or come up with other ways to avoid scoring. The LSU running game is still mostly devastating, but if you can keep the game close and prevent the Tigers from simply running out the clock, you can give yourself a chance.

What I saw was VanGorder coaching VanGorder defense and LSU never moving him out of his comfort zone.  As Bill puts it,

… For the most part, the Tigers avoided both overthinking and overpursuit, and it paid off. LSU doesn’t exactly hide its intentions — they ran 67 percent of the time on standard downs (80 percent with just one player lined up wide, 69 percent with two). Aside from a couple of successful swing passes to Spencer Ware, Auburn was well-prepared for what LSU was trying to do.

A couple of follow up observations to that – first, if you’re going to run two-thirds of the time on standard (i.e., non-passing) downs, it’s hard to see what you gain from swapping Mettenberger for Jordan Jefferson.  Yes, Mett has a better arm, but he poses no running threat to keep a defense from keying on the back.  Now LSU is loaded enough from a talent perspective that I’m not sure that’s going to matter too often, but you could have said the same thing about last year’s team and the contribution it got from the quarterback position.  And while it may not matter too often, when you occupy the same division as Alabama, it may not have to matter more than once.

Secondly, having watched Mett’s play in that game, it seems that the preseason hype may have been too breathless.  Mettenberger is a huge kid at 6-5, 237.  He appears lanky, almost to the point of gangly.  He’s got long arms.  I don’t know if it’s a result of his physique or something else, but it almost looks like he has to wind up a little when he throws.  He’s never going to have an Aaron Murray-like release (a difference that was readily apparent at the two G-Day games in which they both appeared), but I didn’t see much of an improvement in his mechanics from his days under Bobo’s tutelage.  The height helps, of course, but I wonder if Mett is going to pay a price for his delivery against certain defenses.

“Every punt [return] doesn’t have to be a touchdown.”

It sounds like Mark Richt yearns for the quieter, simpler days of Logan Gray fielding punts.

“We’ve just had, overall, too many bad decisions,” Richt said. “We’ve caught the ball inside the 10 when we shouldn’t. We’ve let the ball bounce and not field it when we should’ve. These aren’t all Malcolm’s issues. This has been the last couple of years.

“It may end up being Rhett McGowan before it’s over if he can communicate the best, secure the ball the best and field the ball the best. We’re trying to find an answer there.”

In all seriousness, he’s got a point.  There’s been some dicey play in Georgia’s punt return game so far.  And in limited action, I’ve liked what I’ve seen from McGowan better than anyone else I’ve watched field punts this season.  He gets north-south in a hurry with very little wasted motion; you can make up for not having elite speed with good vision and instincts.  In that sense, McGowan kind of reminds me of Thomas Flowers.

As gestures go…

… this one is pretty much pitch perfect.

The University of Georgia home radio booth at Sanford Stadium will be named Saturday for the late Larry Munson, legendary voice of the Bulldogs for 42 years. The “Larry Munson Broadcast Suite” will be officially recognized before the start of Saturday’s Georgia-Tennessee game, which kicks off at 3:39 p.m.

A plaque will be placed outside the Larry Munson Broadcast Suite that reads: “Dedicated to legendary Bulldog play-by-play announcer Larry Munson who served as the voice of the Bulldog Nation from 1966-2008. His dedication, loyalty, passion and extraordinary delivery over 42 years endeared him to Georgia fans in every city, state, and nation around the world, always urging the teams, and fans, to ‘hunker down you guys.’”

Well played, folks.  Well played, indeed.

Name that caption: Man enough.

We haven’t had one of these in a while and this looks promising (even if it’s a golden oldie):

(photo via AP)

By the way, the header isn’t really a joke. It’s more of a paraphrase:

“Saban is the best coach in the country — I’ll grant him that. But he ain’t a better man than Gene Chizik.”

Dazzle us in the comments.

(h/t Dr. Saturday)

Mike Bobo is offensive.

Honestly, when’s the last time you heard Georgia players talking about their offense like this?

Senior receiver Marlon Brown recalled the summer practice when Bobo revealed the new wrinkles.

“When he called ‘rifle,’ I was like, ‘We’re doing rifle this year? We’re going four wide this year?’ And everybody was real happy,” Brown said, grinning. “At first, I thought he was experimenting, but when we kept doing it in practice, I was like, ‘It’s in the playbook now.’ And in the second half at Missouri, we started calling it a little more, and it started working.”

Then came the pistol formation the following week against Florida Atlantic.

“It was out of nowhere for us,” Brown said. “We were walking through the plays, and Bobo signaled some signal, and I was like, ‘What was that?’ (Bobo said) ‘It’s the pistol.’

“ ‘Like pistol, with the running back behind the quarterback? OK, it’s something different.’ ”

So, Brown is asked, what’s gotten into Bobo?

“I don’t know, but I like it, whatever it is,” he said.

And this?

“You run an offense based on what you have,” quarterback Aaron Murray said. “And if we have tons of receivers, which we do, you want to spread teams out and be able to use your weapons. And if you don’t have a lot of receivers, you know you’re gonna have to be in the I. I think right now, we have so many options, so much talent, he has the ability to spread things out and try new things. And we’re trying stuff all the time — (Monday) we were trying new things.”

And this?

Even the Georgia defensive players have taken notice of the new offensive chicanery.

“Coach (Todd) Grantham is having to reel us back in because we’re tilting to the side, trying to see what’s happening,” linebacker Christian Robinson said.

Of course, it’s way too early to assert that the page has been turned for good, but I would think even the most rabid anti-Bobo partisan would have to admit the results to date are a cause for optimism.  (Along those lines, check out Brian Fremeau’s scoring margin numbers.  See a team better than Georgia’s 90.6 on offense?  Me neither.)

Okay, maybe not the most rabid partisan.

Tyler (Athens,Ga)

David What kind of discipline will Mike Bobo get for the recruiting violation he committed recently? Hopefully he will get fired.

Keep on keeping it real, Dawgnation.

“Between resources, coaches, tradition, we’ll have our day, but it’s not right at this moment.”

Shorter Jim Delany:  Sure, maybe we’re too cheap to keep good coaches and the demographics are killing us on the recruiting front… wait, what were we talking about?

Trend lines for Saturday

Boy, Derek Dooley hasn’t exactly been killing things against the spread lately.

2011+12 Against The Spread
Overall: 10-7-1	Overall: 5-11
Home: 5-3-1	Road: 0-4
Home Fav: 5-3	Road Dog: 0-3
vs. SEC: 7-3-1	vs. SEC: 1-8
Over/Under: 10-7	Over/Under: 9-6-1

Nothing there bodes well for SOD’s troops.  If that’s not enough to convince you, maybe this will.

Wow stat of night! #seconcbs RT @MattSmithCFB Verne and Gary have called 13 Tennessee games together. The Vols are 1-12 in those games.

— Jim Dunaway (@jimdunaway) September 27, 2012

Granted, a lot of that comes at the hands of Florida and Alabama, but still, if you’re like me and put a lot of weight on the power of trends, that’s not good news for Tennessee’s chances this Saturday.

This is how you get your quarterback sacked.

One of these two Vols is wrong.

Asked to discuss the Georgia defense the Vols will face Saturday afternoon between the hedges at Sanford Stadium, junior quarterback Tyler Bray said: “They’re going to bring out a lot of exotic stuff.”

Asked the same general question, junior offensive lineman Ja’Wuan James said: “They don’t do too many exotic things.”

Not exactly on the same page there, eh?

Of course James may be trying to send his quarterback a message to worry about the exotics less and where Jarvis Jones lines up more.

Does this mean we should like him now?

James Franklin got the number of the truck that hit his team last Saturday.

“I’ve been doing this for almost 20 years now, and I thought that was as impressive of an offense as I’ve seen in terms of a veteran quarterback, physical offensive line, physical running backs and speed on the perimeter as well as size.”

Of course, I can’t help but notice he didn’t have any compliments for Georgia’s defense.