Maybe it’s somebody else’s year.

Them’s the breaks, I guess.  Georgia gets South Carolina’s perfect storm.  Florida gets something more like a light drizzle.

Steele picks: Georgia – Kentucky

He likes the Dawgs to cover.

The last time here UGA led 28-3 late 2Q and 41-17 in the 4Q before allowing a couple of garbage time scores in their 44-31 win. Last year at home, UGA just needed to beat UK to wrap up the SEC East Title. The Dogs did have a 317-165 yard edge but in the 1H settled for 5 FG’s, missing one. In the 2H UGA was intercepted in the EZ and fmbl’d at the UK40 and the crowd started getting nervous as they only led 12-10 but got a td on the 1st play of the 4Q to go up 19-10 and UK never really threatened after that. UGA is off a bye after its devastating 35-7 loss to South Carolina but does have Florida on deck. UK is now 1-5 after last week’s 49-7 loss to Arkansas in a game that was called with 5:08 remaining in the 3Q! Due to injuries, UK is going with frosh QB Whitlow who hit just 2-10 last week and was #4 on the depth chart in preseason! He was spelled for two series by Newton, but he couldn’t spark the offense either. Even with a big game on deck, expect the Bulldogs to atone for their performance against SC and continue UK HC Phillips woes.
PHIL’S FORECAST: GEORGIA 49 KENTUCKY 17

Two things worth taking away from that are that UK’s quarterback situation is pretty dire (I didn’t realize that Newton had played; his passer rating of 75.3 was a huge step up from the 24 he garnered against Florida, but still…) and that last year’s game is a stark reminder of Georgia’s endearing habit of playing down to its opposition.  In the case of this year’s Kentucky team, that’s pretty far down.  If that’s all we get, expect an ugly week heading into Jacksonville.

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If you gotta go, that’s alright.

Shorter Jeff Schultz:  Georgia’s defense sucks because all the players who turned down the NFL draft to return to school this year are selfishly dreaming about playing in the NFL.

Dawg stat watch, Week 7

Again, I’m dispensing with the usual exercise, because my heart’s not in it.  Instead, this week’s substitute is a post from David Ching about the big problem on defense – lack of pressure up front.  Skip all the excuses about rust and communication there.  The real story is black and white, in the stats:

TURNOVER TROUBLE
Georgia’s defense ranks ninth in the SEC in turnovers gained after tying for first in the league last season. The Bulldogs have not been as effective at rushing the passer this season — a factor that helped create many of those takeaways last season. Here is a recap of Georgia’s turnover and sack numbers and national ranking in each area since switching to a 3-4 defense in 2010:

TURNOVERS GAINED
2012: T66 (10)
2011: T7 (32)
2010: T30 (26)

TURNOVER MARGIN
2012: T60 (0.0)
2011: T26 (+0.5)
2010: 19 (+0.77)

SACKS
2012: T78 (10 — 1.67 per game)
2011: 24 (35 — 2.5 pg)
2010: T71 (24 — 1.85 pg)

One of those years is not like the others.  Sadly, it’s the good year.

True, Jarvis being nicked up has had an impact.  But nobody has stepped up to take up the slack.  And that’s got to be a major concern going forward.

Take a look at Matt Melton’s mid-season SDPI numbers for the SEC.

The offense is doing enough for the team to succeed. It’s the defense that’s holding things back so far.

Grantham says he’s seen enough improvement during the bye week to make him optimistic they’ve got things turning around, but they’re running out of time to prove that if they want to have any chance of remaining relevant in the SEC East race this season.  It would be nice to see signs of life in the pass rush this Saturday night.

Pat Dye is back with the man talk.

Except this time it’s directed at Auburn… more specifically, at Auburn’s quarterbacks.  Here’s what he mournfully told Finebaum, who must have had the mother of all erections listening to it:  “Unless one of them stands up and becomes a man, and I haven’t seen it yet, I don’t think we stand a chance. Not against a good football team.”

But wait!  There’s more where that came from.

“Mississippi did a smart thing when they went and got a junior college quarterback. He ain’t no great quarterback but he’s mature. He’s man enough to take the criticism that comes with the position. If you can’t take it, it makes a coward out of you. To me, that’s the problem we’ve got right now.”

Dye may say he’s standing behind Gene Chizik, but when you’re pointing to Ole Miss as a model to be followed, let’s just say it’s hardly a ringing endorsement.

Speaking truth to power

Paul Westerdawg makes a very good point in response to those seeking a change at the head coaching position:

Greg McGarity has done absolutely nothing at UGA to suggest he’s capable of or willing to make a big important hire or making massive, decisive sweeping changes.  He came into a massive pile of dysfunction left over from Damon, and (to his credit) he made a check list of the dumbest crap we were doing and slowly worked his way through the obvious items on the list.  He fixed issues like not having a nutritionist or playing football games AT Louisville.  But the big issues like the dumpster fire of the S&C program or the Baseball Team’s head coach and facilities were dealt with incrementally or not at all.

If we want to “out Bama” the Tide, we’re going to need an AD, President and Coach ready to invest about $3 million per year in Football Operations, Football Analysts and S&C personnel.  We’re going to need to invest another $2 million a year in coaching salaries across the board.   Then we’re going to need a bigger compliance staff to keep those 20 new staffers in compliance.

That’s more than a money issue.  That’s a culture change regarding what we invest in. Those personnel investments could be happening RIGHT NOW.  And they aren’t.  And why?  This isn’t 2008 where Richt didn’t get the S&C dollars he asked for because Damon didn’t trust CVH to do anything with the money.  This is McGarity saying that he doesn’t believe Bama’s org chart is street legal…and rather than work with the NCAA to end their staffing practices OR adopt the same practices in hiring and staff growth…we are in this passive aggressive purgatory of not doing the new best practice AND not forcing the other guy to stop it.

Change isn’t about simply unplugging one coach and plugging in another.  Even if there were someone out there who had a clear vision about how to take the program to the next level – for the sake of argument, let’s say that Kirby Smart has successfully absorbed every management lesson Nick Saban has to offer – if McGarity and the administration are unwilling to restructure the school’s entire approach to big-time football, who’s to say the hire would work?  For that matter, under those conditions, who’s to say that guy would even be willing to take the job in the first place?

Put it another way.  Sure, Alabama raises more money from football than Georgia does.  But it also spends way more money on football.  At Georgia, we like to make bank.  Does anyone really believe that approach is in for a significant adjustment in the near future – especially for a program that wins 10+ games a year more often than not?  I sure don’t.