“In the blink of an eye, you can go from the class of your division to an afterthought.”

That really is the story of the SEC East this year, isn’t it?  First Georgia, then South Carolina and now it’s Florida’s turn.  But Georgia’s got a chance to reinvent the narrative.

There’s a lot of good stuff in Bill Connelly’s Cocktail Party preview (not that I’d expect anything less).  Although he’s pessimistic about Georgia’s chances, here’s the statistical nugget that gives me some hope:

How much resistance can the Dawgs offer at the moment? That answer will probably be determined by first-and-10. The advantages the Gators have on passing downs are dramatic — Florida’s offense ranks ninth on passing downs, Georgia’s defense ranks 79th; Florida’s defense ranks sixth on passing downs, Georgia’s offense ranks 52nd — but the tables can be turned a bit on standard downs. Even having played without Michael Bennett for a couple of games, Georgia still has the No. 1 standard downs offense in the country.  [Emphasis added.]

Now Bill goes on to point out that Florida’s defense is none too shabby on standard downs – better than South Carolina’s, in fact, and we know how that went three weeks ago – but still.  Georgia is probably going to have to throw to set up the run and fortunately that’s been a strength this season.  Bobo just needs to tell the little voice inside his head whispering “balance” to take a hike and go dance with what’s brung him to what is still the second-best SEC team in total offense.

25 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

25 responses to ““In the blink of an eye, you can go from the class of your division to an afterthought.”

  1. gastr1

    I was surprised that we did not throw on first down a few more times in the SC game. I know we had to establish the run, but just for the sake of not being predictable against such a good DL it seems first and bomb might have been one of the better plays.

  2. Love seeing Auburn dead last in total offense. Don’t know why it tickles me so much.

  3. Ubiquitous GA Alum

    Throwing into 20-40 mph winds is non-standard … wether on 1st or 3rd down

  4. Gatriguy

    Can’t beat Florida if we can’t run the ball. That’s never changed.

  5. Dawgwood

    I was bored at work yesterday, so I looked up how the Dawgs faired against teams that finished in the top ten in total defense or are currently sitting in the top ten since 2007. The Dawgs were 2-9 against those teams. Florida finished in the top ten in four of those years and sits at #7 this year. We were 1-3 against them. So, there you go.

    • Carolinadawg

      Be careful. Presenting that kind of factual data on this site will cause the clique who believe this to be their site to call you names. Very bad names.

      • Junk Stats

        “Factual data” – this isn’t the NFL where the team stays mostly intact on a yearly basis. The team has changed so dramatically (both players and coaches) that the data isn’t as factual as you make it sound.

        • Russ

          Don’t cloud the issue with facts.

        • Carolinadawg

          You dont think our record against top ten teams in the past 4 plus years is a significant, relevant stat? Seriously?

          • Junk Stats

            That wasn’t the statistic. Top 10 total defenses since 2007. How much has our offense changed since then?

            • Carolinadawg

              A record of of 2 wins and 9 losses isn’t a statistic? What? And thanks for the brilliant analysis that college football isn’t the NFL. I always thought they we’re he same. By the way, NFL players don’t sign lifetime contracts, so they do change teams. And college players are typically on campus for 3 to 5 years.

              • Junk Stats

                Why do you believe that W/L in 2007, 2008, or even 2009 have major predictive value for 2012? If you want to point to our play so far this season that’s one thing, but it’s funny how much emphasis is placed on these games with little predictive value

                • RocketDawg

                  In college football the only stats that matter are the one for the current year. You can’t compare teams year to year because they are totally different, even if they have the same players (as we have seen with our defense this year). Stats from 07 are completely irrelevant.

                  • PNWDawg

                    What’s relevant since then is we’ve had the same head coach who’s failed to produce a reasonable offensive line and has produces some very ‘special’ special teams. That’s a recipe for disaster.

                    I’m still rooting for Richt, though. And my current pessimism will transfer to optimism when the game begins.

                • Carolinadawg

                  Where did I make a prediction?

  6. 69Dawg

    If you have watched any of our games and have watched any of the UF games then you would be hard pressed to pick us in this game. We are soft on D against a running O. Their QB runs and we have not stopped but one running QB all year. Their Special Teams are great and ours are awfull. Their Offense wears the other teams D down and finishes them off in the 4th Quarter. Our team can’t whole up in the 4th because we don’t have as many players as they do. I see this as another SECC type game. If our Special Teams don’t screw us and Arron can keep from turning it over we might not get beat until the 4th quarter. This is when all the Kool-aid gets flushed down the drain.

    • Junk Stats

      Then why watch?

    • Macallanlover

      I am hard pressed to pick us in this game, in fact, I don’t. But that certainly doesn’t mean we cannot win. My goodness, do you think every game played follows the logic of stats and historical references? If they did, there would be no need to play. FU is better than us at STs, I give them that. Who knows? The gusty winds may negate that edge.

      If our OL can give Murray time, and allow the RBs to get a sliver of a hole, we certainly have a puncher’s chance. As a fan you cannot give up on a game that is predicted to be a one score game. It isn’t like we are FAMU going against Oregon. You do realize FU has trailed 2-3 times at the half don’t you? This isn’t kool aide, we are better than each of those teams they trailed. Give up in advance of a game we have a shot in? Don’t get that type of reasoning. As I said, I think we should be, and are, an underdog based on what we have seen thus far. But this matchup isn’t so lopsided anyone would wave the white flag before game time. Swimming against the tide? Sure, but beaten before the first bell rings? Absolutley not.

  7. Mayor of Dawgtown

    UGA is #1 in the SEC in Yards Per Play on O.

    • There’s the rub for me. I’m not an arena guy, but can’t the coaches look at every game this year and build a plan from what has worked?

      When Gurshall was slashing defenses, it came primarily from running on the edges. Or wider. The quick handoff up the middle is what has given us fans headaches for years. Exception was Kowshon: he was so quick and tough.

      And weeks ago, it was revealed that UGA has remarkable success throwing on early downs (by Bill C.?). Not necessarily bombs, but short-to-mid. Even when backed up with a long field. How much of that have we seen the past three weeks? Damned little, from my view.

      Do what your players do well, Mike B. Round holes and square pegs, you know?

  8. BeardDawg

    Being the good Dawg fan that I am, I fully expect the team to go out and pull the upset this week. Then I fully expect us to s*%# the proverbial bed next week against Ole Miss, thus negating the big win.