Why do computers like Georgia’s chances tomorrow more than Vegas?

It’s pretty consistent.

Here’s Vegas’ case, per Matt Melton:

… Under Johnson, the Jackets are 9-5 ATS as a road underdog and 2-1 as a double-digit road underdog. They have also covered in both games under Johnson at Georgia, winning outright as a touchdown underdog in 2008, and losing by eight as a two-touchdown underdog in 2010. Meanwhile, Georgia is just 2-3 ATS as a double-digit home favorite this season and just 7-6 in such a role since 2009.

But like I’ve said, most of the statistical models I’ve seen like Georgia’s chances to cover.  Even Phil Steele’s computer does.  Allow Chase Stuart to explain:

Georgia Tech saved its worst games of the year for nonconference play. While Georgia Tech embarrassed UNC (68 points scored), Virginia (36 point win) and Maryland (33-13 on the road), the Yellow Jackets’ worst two games of the season were inexplicable 21- and 24-point losses to BYU and Middle Tennessee State. BYU scored 6 points against Boise State, 6 points against Utah State, and 14 points against San Jose State, but exploded for 41 points in Atlanta. MTSU lost by 42 to Mississippi State and lost to McNeese State – an FCS school – but somehow won on the road against the Yellow Jackets 49-28. And Georgia Tech is going to be your Coastal Division champs.

ACC!  ACC!  ACC!  Skip the exclamation points, the conference has been flat-out awful this year.

  • Overall, the ACC is currently 14-17 in non-conference games against other FBS schools. This is the most impressive stat you will read about the ACC today.
  • Against Conference USA, the MAC, the Sun Belt, and the WAC, the ACC is 7-2. Against miserable Army — the 114th team in the SRS — the conference is 1-1. That means against the other BCS schools (the SEC, B10, B12, P12, Big East, Notre Dame, and BYU), the conference went a pitiful 6-14.
  • This is not a joke: Ball State is the second best team an ACC school has beaten this year. Virginia’s upset over Penn State — a one-point home win when the Nittany Lions missed an extra point and four field goals — is the conference’s best win of the year. After PSU and Ball State, at least according to the SRS, the best teams defeated by ACC schools were Auburn, South Florida (twice), Bowling Green, East Carolina, Temple, and Connecticut.
  • To put a bow on it, the ACC lost to the best six teams it faced out of conference, and according to the SRS, to 13 of the 14 schools they faced that have SRS ratings over 40.

So keep that in mind as you ponder Tech’s 62nd national ranking in total defense and 79th ranking in scoring defense.  (Tech is middle of the pack in both categories in the conference, by the way.)

23 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Georgia Tech Football, Stats Geek!

23 responses to “Why do computers like Georgia’s chances tomorrow more than Vegas?

  1. HahiraDawg

    Alright, you’ve convinced me, ain’t worried bout the Dawgs. What does all these ACC stats mean in the Clemsun/Cackalacky & Noles/SwampMullets games? Am I to believe that UF & USCe will roll? I think they’re both going down, that’s head-to-head, not against the spread.

    • Cosmic Dawg

      Clemson and Florida State will both get creamed tomorrow, imho.

      • AlphaDawg

        I can see FSU hanging in there with UF, with either winning a close game by a FG. Their Offenses are so bad its damn near criminal. The game last year between these two set back offensive football by 20 years in the state of Florida. The inepitude on that side of the ball for both teams is epic. My guess would be a 10-14, or 14-17 game.

        Clepsum and lil-USC, I haven’t the foggest?

        But hell what do I know?

      • Peteydawg

        Totally wrong Fsu will stomp UF

  2. Keese

    We all know the Dawgs can be statistical anomolies. Dawgs need to play with the underdog mentality, something to prove/pissed off mentality to cover. The jackets provide none of those. Game makes me nervous.

  3. Castleberry

    You can forget about the stats. These boys will be psyched to beat. Us tomorrow.

    http://videos.sapo.pt/zRTbtVnSzoT8pAJUFfLy

  4. ScoutDawg

    Nah, UGA wins, and FU gets the upset over a fraudulent FSU. Cocks take it from Clempsun.

    • AlphaDawg

      If lil-USC had a healthy Lattimore and Clowney, I’d pick them over Clempsum. But without those two I think they may struggle with Boyd. With Lattimore, Spurrior had the ability to manage the clock and keep Boyd off the field and Clempsum/Boyd hasn’t seen anyone like a healthy Clowney, whos been banged up for the last few weeks. If I were betting i’d take Clempsun with the upset.

      • Macallanlover

        Clowney is back according to reports I read, may not be 100% but will play. I like SC in an upset, but don’t feel strongly about it. I thlnk FSU/FU could also go either way. Dawgs will win, and I think they will cover the 13+ but will take a W regardless. Surprised at the love USC is getting, I don’t see the upset based on the way the Trojans have played all year, but in CFB, I am rarely shocked.

  5. Merk

    The sports writers think USC struggling with Wofford was a sign clemson gets em…..

    I think that is just an indication that Spurrier spent the last 2 weeks prepping for Clemson.

  6. SouthGa Dawg

    I bet Phil Steele has a cool computer…you know one of those main frame IBM’s from the 70′s…takes up his whole living room. Man, that would be great.

    • Macallanlover

      Don’t know about his computer but his office set up with TVs to follow ALL games is pretty cool. Wish there were some way to space games where we could see all the best ones, sad to think the season is over tomorrow. Anyway to make summer go this fast?

  7. Sounds good, but I am afraid we have no hope against Bama Well there’s always hope, but Nicholas is probably thinking, “Who will it be….Hummm…Got those Fighting Irish right where I want them.