I’ve been curious to see if Georgia’s proclivity for the big play last season (3rd nationally in plays of 20+ yards) would garner any attention from the stat gurus in the offseason and it seems that it has.
There are many ways of measuring a passer’s efficiency, but the one that offers the most bang for the buck is yards per pass, or, even better, yards per pass+. Below is the top 25 by YPP+ and their national ranking in YPP among players with at least 200 pass attempts. For comparison is the top 25 defenses. The dYPP+ means, for example, that Florida allows 2.51 fewer yards per pass than the average defense.
Against an SEC schedule, Aaron Murray averaged 10.1 yards per pass, but should have averaged 10.4 yards per pass against an average schedule, a full yard better than any other quarterback with a significant number of attempts. He faced two of the top four and three of the top 10 defenses by dYPP+.
And Bill Connelly has adjusted his S&P+ rankings – “Explosiveness (and the ability to prevent it) is more of a winner in college football than efficiency, and strong PPP numbers were more indicative of quality than strong success rates.” – and the result is that Georgia’s 2012-3 offense came in third nationally.