Matt Melton takes a look at how every D-1 game in 2012 performed against the point spread. The results won’t surprise too many of you.
Out of the 697 regular season games involving IA opponents, 261 of them (or 37.45%) finished within one touchdown of the betting line. In other words, more than a third of the time, you’re hard-earned money was one play away from either nearly doubling or floating away. Think about that the next time your buddy has a ‘sure thing’. Overall, over two thirds (67.00%) of the games finished within two touchdowns of the betting line and fewer than one of every five games differed by more than 20 points.
That translates into the average game being roughly twelve points off from the spread. Not exactly a lock.