If it doesn’t work out, there’s always more expansion.

Rumor has it that the SEC’s network deal will likely be for 15-20 years.  Long time, there.  Bernie Machen’s not worried about that.

“If it goes big, it will be huge,” Machen said. “If it doesn’t, it won’t be. I think it will be huge.”

Well, maybe more like Bernie Machen has no idea about whether to be worried about that.

For all the confident excitement about this, it seems like everybody’s forgotten it was Slive’s incompetence in negotiating the last TV deal that led to a conference expansion that he still hasn’t wrapped his brain completely around yet.  Why exactly are we supposed to believe that this time around he got it right?

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Battle of the replacements

With the kids heading back from spring break, there’s an interesting contrast shaping up for the rest of spring practice in the defensive back seven.  Both levels saw a bunch of talented starters leave, but the similarities end there.

If the spring hype is to be believed, a starting four at linebacker is coming into focus:  Wilson and Herrera inside; DeLoach and Jenkins on the outside.  (DeLoach’s shot is the most tentative, given Vasser’s experience, which is a trait Grantham values.)  Those coming in now and in the summer will be valuable for depth purposes, but I’m starting to get a welcome sense of stability at the position.

Compare that to the secondary, where, outside of Damian Swann starting at one of the corner positions, it’s about as wide open as it gets.  In fact, it’s so wide open that it’s hard to say that much of the two-deep will get locked down before the players coming in this summer arrive.

If you think that makes me nervous about facing Clemson’s offense in the opener, you’re right.

More post-BCS fun and games

Just a couple of random tidbits to show how serious football’s custodians are about taking the postseason to the next level.

First, don’t let anybody tell you differently.  Shreveport is in the running to host a national semi-final game!

The group overseeing the new college football playoff announced today it has invited 31 bowl committees to consider whether they are interested in submitting a proposal to host the national semifinals and other bowl games to be played New Year’s Eve or New Year’s Day.

The Rose Bowl and the Sugar Bowl have already been chosen to host the first national semifinals of the playoff on January 1, 2015. The Orange Bowl and a yet-to-be named bowl will host the semifinals in the second year of the playoff. The two bowls that will host semifinals in the third year have yet to be named. Bids are being sought for the three to-be-named bowls.

“This is about giving as many fans as possible the opportunity to enjoy the new playoff and the other bowls in person,” said Bill Hancock, Executive Director of the BCS and the future playoff. “A rotating event means more fans in more places will be able to experience the excitement of the new playoff. Because of the criteria, we don’t expect every bowl to proceed with a bid, but we want to extend an offer to all that are part of the college football bowl tradition.”

Damn, I wish some billionaire with more money than sense would back a play for Shreveport to be a host, just to watch Hancock weasel out of it.  (Shoot, there’s got to be more bang for the buck in that than there was in all those RomneyPACs last fall.  Combined.)  Somebody help a third-tier bowl out.

Of course, we all know the reality here.

BCS says 31 bowls may bid for right to host semifinals in playoff. Doesn't matter: 3 open spots will go to Fiesta, Cotton & Chick-fil-A

— Brett McMurphy (@McMurphyESPN) March 15, 2013

Time waster.

Next, Stewart Mandel organizes a brief symposium on the role statistical analysis should play in assembling the semi-finals field (the teams, not Shreveport).  It’s well-meaning, but… well, let’s put it this way.  Here’s whom Mandel elicited for opinions:

• Bill Connelly, author of SB Nation’s Football Study Hall and Football Outsiders’ S&P efficiency ratings

• Ed Feng, publisher of ThePowerRank.com and Sports Illustrated contributor

• Brian Fremeau, author of BCFToys.com and Football Outsiders’ FEI efficiency ratings

• Jerry Palm, CBSSports.com bracketologist and former publisher of CollegeBCS.com and CollegeRPI.com

• Ken Pomeroy, publisher of the KenPom.com basketball efficiency ratings

And here’s whom Hancock says they’re looking for:

1. People connected with each conference, but not necessarily current staff members — more likely retired ADs or coaches.

2. One or two former media members who covered college football.

3. “Nationally known and respected football people who know the game and made their name in college football.” Former players might fit this bill.

Yeah, those two groups have so much in common.  If you put them in the form of a Venn diagram, you’d wind up with a couple of circles that didn’t overlap, with a line drawn between them labeled “Bill Hancock”.

Hint:  If you just described all the playoff trappings as the most conservative way to generate the most money, it would save us all a lot of effort, Bill.

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UPDATE:  Michael Elkon writes something that went through my head when I composed this post earlier.

Thankfully, we are coming to the end of the BCS era. The decisions that were previously made by suspect pollsters and denuded computer programs will now be named by an as-yet unnamed roster of committee members. College football’s innumeracy will no longer be written into the rules. Instead, we will just have to hope that the individuals tasked with selecting four teams will do a better job of utilizing mathematically sound reasoning. It would be something new for college football to go down that path. (Bill Hancock’s comments on the composition of the committee are not confidence-inspiring.)

Baseball has made major strides and yet even now, we are far more likely to see batting average on the screen when a batter comes to the plate as opposed to on-base percentage. How long are we going to have to wait for college football to make similar progress and where will that progress be reflected? In baseball, the use of outdated numbers does not affect the competition. Because of the subjectivity inherent in picking teams to play for the national title, it potentially matters when ESPN uses bad numbers to analyze teams and then Hancock’s “retired ADs and coaches” form their beliefs based on those numbers.

Baseball is much, much farther along in its usage of advanced stats than college football – yet even there, as Michael notes, there’s still plenty of resistance masked as adherence to traditional (read:  less accurate) measures.  It’s not rational to think that college football is ready to go to a place that even baseball hasn’t fully embraced.  Sadly, that’s the case even though more is at stake.

Tweet happy thoughts.

James Franklin:

“I don’t tweet when I’m angry or upset,” he said.

Well, let’s check the tape on that.

You know, he’s right. No cell phone in sight there.

Just another day not at the beach

If you’re wondering whether Aaron Murray got anything out of his week with QB guru George Whitfield, Bruce Feldman has the story on that:

Among the things that Murray told Whitfield that he wanted to improve: his pocket protocol/pocket presence; his touch and becoming more consistent. Once in Norman, Murray realized there was something else that needed tweaking: his upper body rotation in his throwing motion.

In film study on Monday night, Whitfield showed Murray that the QB wasn’t really driving through with his left elbow. “I never realized how much my body was fighting it,” Murray said. “I just really wasn’t coming through. And when he talked to me about it, it made a lot of sense.”

To help Murray amp up his mechanics, Whitfield had the QB throwing from his knees to get him using more of his upper body. Murray said he has already noticed that he has been able to create more torque and, therefore, more velocity on his throws.

That will be something to watch this G-Day.  But it might not be enough to satisfy the part of the fan base that will remain convinced after the spring game that Mason needs to play.  (Turn on your sarcasm detectors, please.)  What will be more interesting to see is if increased velocity makes those back shoulder throws that Murray’s made a living on the past two seasons even more deadly.

As for the rest of his list, he’s done a good job of self-scouting.  And that’s the first step towards improvement.  If his receivers keep up, it should be a fun year.