Steele on Georgia, 2013 edition

You can find the link to his preview of #9 Georgia here (note the link there downloads as a pdf).  It’s chock full of stuff and it’s certainly not an unreasonable analysis, as this comment about the offensive line indicates:  “With the way this unit has gone I’m not sure how to interpret this, but the line returns intact w/101 car sts and should be one of the top O-lines in the country.”  I feel ‘ya, Phil.

If you’re looking for predictions, he calls for Georgia to win the SEC East again.  But the most interesting tidbit I’ve gleaned so far comes from his statistical analysis of last season.  I’ve mentioned before that Steele puts a lot of stock in a team’s yards per point metric.

Steele makes a very big deal out of yards per point (YPP).  You can read a breakdown of it here.  Essentially, it’s a measure of offensive and defensive efficiency – the lower a team’s offensive YPP is, the more efficient it is at scoring and the higher a team’s defensive YPP is, the better it is at making its opponents less efficient on offense.

Take a look at Georgia’s defensive YPP numbers.  From 2008 through 2011, they ranged from 12.7 to 14.9.  Last season, that number jumped to 18.2.  That number isn’t Sabanesque, but it’s a big swing in the direction of the elite.  And that’s in a year when SEC offenses improved generally and Georgia’s run defense had its ups and downs.  Maybe Grantham didn’t impress us last year, but it looks like he did alright.


Filed under Georgia Football, Phil Steele Makes My Eyes Water

14 responses to “Steele on Georgia, 2013 edition

  1. The ridiculous defensive YPP stat against the NATS definitely helped that statistic. I would also say that the fact that we did a good job in the turnover department and on special teams for most of the year helped, too. With the exception of the USCe game, we forced teams to drive the length of the field against us.


    • Scott W.

      The stats were definitely helped because all of the nightmares occurred during the Cocky game rather than throughout the season. That said it was brutal and I hope the Dogs can get some retribution this year.


  2. Scott

    Couldn’t the high 18.2 YPP also mean that we got lucky on defense and could be in store for a return to the mean this year…meaning as disappointed as we were last year’s defense, they may be a lot worse this season.?


    • Yeah, the player suspensions Grantham had to deal with in the first part of the season were certainly some bad luck… wait, I’ll bet that’s not the kind of luck you’re referring to. 😉


  3. Rusty

    Can’t help myself. Optimism starting to rear it’s ugly head.


  4. BlueBlur

    Gentelman, we still got Aaron “can’t play big in a big game” Murray, he has performed terrible against Boise, LSU, SC, Florida in 2011, terribe against SC, Florida, and Bama in 2012.

    Kid just chokes in big games. Even threw another 2 int’s in the Bowl game, 1 was a pick 6.

    Kid has never played big all 4 quarters against a top 10 team in 3 years, ain’t gonna start now.

    Not big on Georgia because of that.


  5. HillDawg

    Anybody ever notice that few teams play as well against top ten teams as they do against lesser teams? Hmmm……


  6. The other Doug

    I’m still worried about the offensive line. This is really the year we are going to find out whether Will Friend is a good Oline coach. He has depth and experience, so no excuses.