Hey, did you know that Nick Saban’s running a pretty good little program over there in Tuscaloosa? Mark Schlabach does. And he’s wondering if there’s a program in the SEC that can do anything about it.
Surprisingly, it’s kind of a lazy piece. All he really does is line up the teams perceived to be the top contenders in the conference and go through their strengths and weaknesses.
The reality is that there were only three teams that pushed Alabama last year – LSU, Texas A&M and Georgia. What all three teams had in common was the ability to stretch Alabama’s pass defense. They were the only three to exceed eight yards per pass attempt against the Tide defense.
So how would Florida and South Caroline fare along that line? The Gators are a tough sell, honestly. They’re not geared to stretch defenses. Last season, they averaged 6.6 ypa and only exceeded 8 ypa twice, against Texas A&M and Tennessee, neither of which had defenses which would be confused with Saban’s.
As for Spurrier’s crew, it’s more of a Jekyll and Hyde story. There are some eye-popping ypas from last season (including a game in Columbia that we won’t dwell on here), but there are also some abysmal averages against good defenses, like Florida, Vanderbilt, LSU… and Wofford. So you don’t know which offense would show up, perhaps. But in a one game scenario with Spurrier’s legendary playcalling ability, I wouldn’t bet against the ‘Cocks.
Anyway, I thought this might be a good spot for a reader poll.
Get The Picture 
At 68% now. By noon we will be the only contender.
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Bit of a homerish slant here, but the Dawgs are the only choice really. No way Saban lets Manziel beat him again.
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No way we let them beat us again in the SECCG.
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UGA will not play Bama this year and I don’t see them as the representative out of the West in the SECCG. Got to be Texas A&M.
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Texas A&M? You think Johnny Football is going to play another out of his mind game against Bama this year? I just have to see that one more time before I believe it wasn’t just a one time game of his life.
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Twist, you invariably show good reasoning in your posts. Why do you think that the win over Bama was outside Manziel’s skill zone shown all year in his qualifications for the Heisman? If UGA had beaten Bama, what would your reply be to someone who posted those words about Murray? Truly, I’m not getting on your case for your opinion, just that you always post clearly and this post smacks of someone like ……um….Cojones?
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I think a good item to ponder is if JM can play at last year’s level again.
Though his stats last year were great (and not other-worldly), I do wonder if he can complete 68% of his passes again or if maybe his 9 interceptions become 4 or 14.
But, given their schedule this year, perhaps replicating those numbers again won’t be too difficult.
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What BD said…
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The running game should be improved…and that will only help AM. Georgia’s offense, with even a slightly improved line and a more seasoned Gurley and company, will be really, really hard to handle.
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I remember a number of crazy improvised plays in that game that went in favor of Johnny and Texas A&M. He definitely has the skillset to make amazing plays and deserved the Heisman. Admittedly I haven’t watched him play enough, but we’ll see next year if he keeps it up or falls back a little with the sophomore slump. I’m just skeptical that he could make that magic happen again against Bama.
The great thing is, we’ll find out soon enough. Is this summer over with? Dang…
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Do not rush my summer. The beach and mountains still call. 🙂
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It takes balance to beat Bama. If you can’t run the ball against their front 7, Saban can keep the safeties back and play over the top. If you can, the field opens up. Also, you have to hit the big play when it opens up. LSU 2004 is a good blueprint for beating a Saban-coached team.
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Given Saban’s tendencies, I’d love to see what a Baylor-offense-approach would do to them. Given the new faces on their DLine this year it may the best shot at putting up buckets of points on them for a while.
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A&M will lose big. I think LSU has a really good shot. They would’ve beaten them last year except for Miles’s bizarre coaching decisions. LSU won the last time in Tuscaloosa, too, so that’s not a big deal. I like Georgia’s chances in a hypothetical matchup versus Alabama, but I would give the ever-so-slight edge in odds to LSU beating Alabama.
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If some of their young talent gels and they make big strides on offense, I give Ole Miss an outside chance too. They get a bye and catch Bama off a big game (I think). But it’s still a big “if” that anyone outside of LSU, UGA, or TAMU can give them a run this year (unless VT does a really huge 180 on offense that is.)
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I’ve not seen a UGA team under Coach Richt play as hard for a full 60 the way they did against Alabama that day in many years… probably back to at least when Shock was under center and maybe even Greene. I’ve also NEVER seen Coach Richt visibly pissed/upset/disappointed in a loss the way he was. Recall back to just before Saban got Bama on the climb, they thought they were there and dropped Utah. Then Tebow got ’em and they’ve been on a tear ever since. Pain and desire are the two best motivators there are… I think this team felt pain last year like they’ve never felt. They and us realized just how close they came to a dream they weren’t sure was real for them in previous seasons– a National Championship. I for one think it’s time CMR stops saying “win the east, play for the SEC and go from there”. He has a team that wants a National Championship, a fan base the wants one too and for the first time in several years he has a team that can actually do it. I’m praying for a rematch against Alabama in December. Their fans are not, they didn’t even want one extra quarter last year, let alone four.
Go Dawgs!
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Got to get by Clemson, South Carolina, LSU and FU first, though.
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And if we do that, win the East, then yes…I’d like our chances against Bama, so that’s why I voted for the Dawgs.
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If we get by all of those teams, me too.
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I think that what I’m trying to say is that while I’m guardedly optimistic about this coming season I don’t want the bar to be set so high that if the Dawgs lose a game or 2 the crazies come out of the woodwork like they did last season after 1 loss to South Carolina. If the Dawgs win 11 games or even 10 or 9 games in the regular season that’s still a pretty damn good year. Let’s just not be screaming for blood if they lose to Clemmons or the Dicks or (gulp) both early.
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This poll would be more satisfying if the question was: Which team has the worst shot of beating Alabama?
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Florida.
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FU. Not you, Doug!
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It would also have included my beloved Tigers.
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Georgia State.
That one’s going to be ugly.
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As much as I want to play and beat Bama, I really want to beat Johnny Tinkerbell.
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Obviously UGA’s going to win that poll on this site in a landslide.
I’d love to see the voting if UGA wasn’t an option on that.
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Aside from Georgia, I say LSU. Georgia lost the SEC by a virtual coin toss, and I think the whole offense returning and being one year older and more experienced makes up for the losses on defense; plus the defense may be young but its damn talented.
But people seem to forget that there’s another team who consistently doesn’t have down years, regardless of personnel losses, and its LSU.
A&M is going to get humiliated by Alabama this year. Mark it.
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“I’m such a homer” I think to myself as I vote for UGA
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I would say you have to do several things:
1) Run the ball (not necessarily run to set up the pass, but run when you need to or can). LSU, A&M and UGA only three teams to rush for over 100 yards last year.
2) Pass with accuracy. YPA is important, but doesn’t tell the whole story.
3) Convert on 3rd down. LSU and A&M were the only teams 50% or more.
4) Win turnover ratio.
Alabama tries to make you one-dimensional – i.e. do whatever to get you in third and long. If you can run the ball a little and pass with consistency, then you can do the other things.
Y’all have a good day,
BD
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Sheesh BD. I hate it when you try to be reasonable. Robbed me of a perfectly good opportunity to vent.
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Just as easy as that! BD is giving away all Saban’s secrets! 😉
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Saban is like Nick Nolte in Blue Chips. He’ll give the other coach the playbook because he doesn’t think you can out execute him.
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I have been singing that song since 7:30 this morning. Hate that when a tune gets stuck in my head.
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BD,, Can you get this info to CMR and Honey Bobo? Oh that’s right, I remember they read this blog.
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BD-
Who do you think has the best chance to win the West outside of Bama?
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The Aggies – if they play similar to last year. Their schedule has two games – Bama game three and LSU game 11. The rest is manageable.
Some team could surprise them, I guess – if they nap one Saturday.
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Great point. LSU has UF and UGA.
Thanks
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Don’t the Aggies go to the Swamp? They played Florida in College Station last year.
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lol. This is the new SEC scheduling. No return trip.
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To get to Bama you have to start yesterday. That has passed. Off season prep is huge with them and every team in the conference had better understand that. Then first minute of fall camp has to have urgency. But it starts at Clemson…win them all and Bama has to come to you.
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Great. Now that song is stuck in my brain. Thanks for that, Senator.
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You don’t like Sound of Music? That’s un-American. 😉
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I don’t mind if the hills are alive with it… just not the inside of my brain. The hamster in there is already on his last legs.
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Weren’t they in Austria? Those aren’t the North Georgia mountains.
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True, we prefer Allison Krause and Union Station.
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Maybe I took this too literally, but since UGA, UF and SC don’t play Bama in the regular season, and they’d both have to make the SECCG to play again, that reduced the odds for me. So, just playing the odds, I stuck with teams on Bama’s regular season schedule.
Next step in my reasoning is that I think it helps if a team can sneak up on Bama or catch them by surprise. No way TAMU or LSU will do that. I think it’s going to have to be an upset, and I’m going way out on a limb and calling for Miss State to do that. It’s a classic trap game–one week after LSU, and on the road. Would go with Ole Miss, but they’re sandwiched between a coupla blueberry cupcakes (if I can mix my food metaphors here).
Now, if the question is based on assumption the teams will play, since that’d have to be in the SECCG and the Dawg defense will have gelled by then, gotta go with UGA. UF is clearly gonna be down this year and I’ll be amazed if they make it, SC will be good but think they’re still happy just to be there, but if Dawgs are in Atlanta again, they’ll be a team on a mission from God and they will beat whoever they play, I truly believe.
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Love that thinking. You are getting some engines revved this day. Voted Dawgs, but your post makes for the best sense of competition and what can happen. Either way, some Bulldog team has the best shot.
Saban has made a big deal in the media for years that he works hard to keep a team from being or becoming complacent. Believe that he works that into all games prepped. He was realistically worried about that going back to the blackout game in Athens. And he had good reason to worry since we put over 30 pts on them in the second half. That’s where he gets ahead, not by physical ability of players, but mental prep to play an entire game no matter the score.
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I really don’t see Aggy beating Bama again; the Tide were coming off of a grueling, heart-pounding, fist-pumping victory at Baton Rouge and were due for a letdown. Remove the initial sock in the mouth aTm gave them and it’s a different game.
Also, after seeing play after play of Jonathan Football running around willy-nilly on Bama, I think Saban will make his players destroy Manziel every play or have to watch a kitten get shot or something.
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Ask me again after week 2. For now, I think LSU has the best chance.
I don’t think the Tigers are getting anywhere near the attention *now* that they’ll be getting by the second half of the season. So much talk about Bama and A&M, but I think LSU will be a very close second to Bama in the West. And it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they win that division.
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Are you suggesting Alabama leave the SEC to pursue Captain Von Trapp?
You’re a cheeky one, Senator.
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When my children ask, “Who is they Mom?” I told them the Von Trapp family of course. They bought it! Now that’s cheeky.
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