Alligator Army blogger predicts Florida will score fewer points at home against Georgia Southern’s defense than in Jacksonville.
Filed under Gators, Gators..., Georgia Football, Georgia Southern Football
So the Gators score 3 against Southern and 6 against us. Big deal.
I think the assertion that the Defense “is a mess” goes beyond hyperbole. It’s wishful thinking. I mean, I don’t think they’re simply going to plug in new starters and pick up where they left off last year (oh, man…the Clemson game), but WOW.
Seriously, the returning starters stat is 1) frequently overblown and 2) apparently only a 1-way street in this case.
When you compare the legit “returning starters” it looks to me like the Off vs Defense breakdown goes like this:
10 vs 5 for Georgia
6 vs 3 for Florida
Bottom line: Both teams have double the number of returning starters on Offense as their opponent has on Defense, but when you think in terms of percentages, it looks like this:
91% vs 45.5% for Georgia
54.5% vs 27% for Florida
Based on those numbers, and assuming AA’s implicit assumption about the importance of returning starters, it becomes clearer that, statistically speaking, the team more likely to dominate the other offensively wears red & black.
I do worry a little about Murray being too amped up for this game, but that Gator offense is so bad I think we still get out with another win, as always, depending on the turnover margin.
Georgia’s Defense gets a D+? Lighten up, Francis…
He wrote that nearly a month ago. He’s probably sobered up by now. Don’t think I’ve seen such wishful thinking in a long while.
That’s just adorable.
I just don’t see Florida getting to 10-1. They travel to Miami early in a trap game. They go to Red Stick and Columbia, SC, and they go to Jax with a coach who has never won there knowing the opposing offense hasn’t played well either of the last two years and still won. They have to go 3-1 in those games and take care of business in games like at Mizzou the week after they go to LSU and home vs. Vandy sandwiched between UGA & USCe.
You must assume that all of their question marks get answered — OL gets/stays healthy, they get solid production at RB, Driskel plays better than he has shown to this point, WR’s that have not yet produced become All-SEC caliber, and the holes on defense are plugged with stars that live up to the hype — and assume they don’t regress to the mean on turnovers (they were +20 in their wins and -5 in their losses) to think they could approach 10-1. I just don’t think that’s likely. I see three or four losses from that schedule unless most of those questions get really positive answers.
As far as the Georgia analysis goes… I don’t think the author is advancing through the season. He is analyzing every game as if it is in week one. Georgia’s defense will have had seven games by the time the Cocktail Party rolls around. The newbies won’t exactly be wide-eyed by then. Weeks one and two? Sure. That’s what all of us fans are really hoping won’t happen. But, it’s not going to happen in week ten.
To be fair….he does note that Florida’s young safeties will have had time to gel by then. Apparently, its only week one for the opponent in these little predictions.
He also says our OL returns “mainly intact”. We return all 5 starters and gain a bunch of depth.
He says we return 2 starters on defence with 1 being Swann. I can’t even figure out who the other one is because Amarlo Herrera, Garrison Smith, and Jordan Jenkins all started last year. And in a few games games Connor Norman, Chase Vasser, Sheldon Dawson, and Ray Drew either started or played a lot. JHC player a lot as a freshman. Ramik player a decent amount and would’ve played more had he not been behind Alec Ogletree. John Taylor redshirted and he has received insanely high praise.
Their defense supposedly can bounce back because it has more talent?
Tray Matthews 4*
Shaq Wiggins 4*, top 5 CB
Sheldon Dawson 4*
Ray Drew 5*
Garrison Smith 4*
Toby Johnson 4*
Amarlo Herrera 4*
John Taylor 4*
Jordan Jenkins 5*
Leonard Floyd 4*
Josh Dawson 4*
Reggie Carter 4*
Brendan Langley 4*
I didn’t realize that that wasn’t impressive recruiting.
And yeah, he definitely thinks 7 games is enough time for their defense to return 3 starters and get good while we return 4 (and a bunch of experience) and somehow will still be flailing by the time we get to Florida.
As pathetic as the Florida offense was last year and as much trouble as they’re having putting together 5 people who can even be called offensive linemen, I don’t see how they possibly score 40 on anyone. Maybe they can run up the score on some little cupcake team and convince themselves that they finally have an offense. I think it’s more likely that they keep playing games to half-empty stadiums even with a good record because their fans know that their record last year was a mirage. They came extremely close to losing to some EMBARRASSINGLY terrible teams.
In what universe is Florida’s offense going to put up 41 points? Maybe just a typo for 14.
I think he means they will have scored 41 points, cumulatively, going into that game.
The statement that the gators look stronger than Georgia overall is pretty ridiculous. Georgia is the only team returning a bunch of players on a side of the ball that was actually good last year. No way Florida scores 41.
First problem … he has the Gators scoring 231 total points before the get to Jax. Then he thinks they’re gonna hang 41 on us. Somebody HAS been drinkin’ the Gatorade. I need to call my bookie …
So though the South Carolina game he has Florida averaging 8 more points per game than last year, which makes total sense because of how much better Driskel and the receivers looked in the spring. I’m not saying it’s impossible that Florida’s offense could improve at least somewhat, but Gator fans seem to take it for granted that it’s going to happen based on absolutely no evidence.
“This Georgia Southern team has been to Sanford Stadium and Bryant-Denny Stadium, and is unlikely to buckle under the pressure of being in the Swamp. In addition, remember that this game is GSU’s postseason, so expect them to have plenty of motivation.”
That is, except for their actual postseason.
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