Neat little piece at Football Study Hall that attempts to measure the relationship between a team’s talent and its on-field results over the past seven seasons. There’s really little surprise about the talent conclusion – teams that recruit well tend to do better than teams that don’t recruit well – but it’s the part afterwards that’s really fun to read.
The remaining piece of the puzzle is what I am calling “Coaching Effect”, but refers not only to game prep and game-day coaching, but scheme, S&C program, and talent evaluation–coaches that routinely have better results than recruiting rankings indicate they should are probably doing a better job of evaluating the available talent than the ratings services are doing.
It stands to reason that over time, strong coaching staffs ought to consistently and measurably outperform (or at least perform in line) with the available talent on hand and weaker staffs will underachieve (sometimes spectacularly).
Based at least on how Richt’s teams chart, his method feels like it has the ring of truth, or at least plausibility, to it. And for some real amusement, compare Gene Chizik’s numbers from the 2010 and 2012 seasons. Let’s just say Cam deserved the Heisman.