Lucky ducks: Auburn, Vegas and the luck factor.
Hey, don’t take my word for it.
Of course, Auburn didn’t actually lose to those teams — you’ve surely seen the all-time great clips by now with Auburn radio man Rod Bramblett yelling over them, but here’s Georgia and Alabama if not — but White marks them as defeats for the power rating calculations because of the extraordinary fortunate involved.
“The bowls are based on wins and losses, but they weren’t supposed to win [those games],” White said. “Two unbelievable plays catapulted them.”
The point, as White or Fuhrman or Avello or anyone in Vegas would note, is not to knock Auburn. It’s just their jobs to discover the true talent level of teams so they can predict future performance as accurately as possible, and that process requires cutting the narrative layers that harden on top of each magnificent victory.
“In the end, winning is the name of the game, but beating Georgia took the hand of God, and beating Alabama also took some luck,” Fuhrman told me. “It makes for a good story.”
Again, I have a hard time remembering the last time anybody outside the fan base talked about a Georgia season like that. Your mileage may vary, of course.
Get The Picture 
If UGA were in Auburn’s position, is there a snowball’s chance in hell that OSU loses that game to put us in?
LikeLike
No way and everyone would be talking about Richt will never get us there.
LikeLike
The OSU game wouldn’t have taken place b/c a rogue comet would have smashed into Earth.
The universe is always out to get us. Woe is us.
LikeLike
If UGA pulled off a miracle tipped pass TD for the win it would be called back for holding.
LikeLike
Or a bogus cut block had nothing to do with the outcome of the play
LikeLike
Or Penn Wagers would have phoned in a penalty he noticed from home
LikeLike
At the very least we would have gotten 5 excessive celebration penalties for the TD and would have kicked off from the 6″ line. Auburn would start their next drive from our 40.
LikeLike
It’d be nice if, once in a while, the hand of God showed an open palm to Richt.
LikeLike
Up until now, Richt keeps choosing “back hand.”
LikeLike
I agree that they won the GA game by luck because without the tipped pass they lose. However, without their field goal return for TD against Bama they go into overtime. Hardly a guaranteed loss there. To be fair though, I only watched about the last 5 minutes of the iron bowl because I wad watching the GA tech game.
LikeLike
Alabama did go 0-4 on make-able field goal tries. If they hit just one of those, Alabama wins the game. That is pretty (un)lucky.
LikeLike
I can see counting the Georgia game a loss much easier than the win over Bama. Yes the ending of the Bama game was crazy but it was set up by awning and good coaching strategy. Plus the game was tied and who’s to say Auburn doesn’t win that game in overtime if the missed FG return is better covered by Bama preventing the TD?
The Georgia game was an act of God. 99 times out of 100 that ball falls to the ground incomplete. Or UGA could have batted it down to the ground and Georgia wins.
LikeLike
Careful. Insinuating that Auburn’s field goal return for TD wasn’t 100% sell your soul to the devil luck will get the butt hurt flowing like a river amongst the lurking disney dawgs
LikeLike
Those who blame Georgia’s coaching for not stressing the “bat it down” strategy should also blame Saban for not having his players coached up to cover a possible return of a field goal attempt (their pursuit was slow to begin, uncertain and timid). Nicky’s is the more blatant coaching failure.
LikeLike
I agree, but who is blaming the coaches for the tipped pass?
LikeLike
There’s been posters (on this blog) that are ready to fire TG because the defensive backs tried to intercept instead of batting.
LikeLike
Trying to intercept in that situation is plain stupid. If the pass is incomplete UGA gets the ball at the Auburn 30 whereas if the pass is intercepted UGA gets the ball at the Georgia 30. The only reason to intercept would be in a craven attempt to pad individual stats (“Look at me, I’m on ESPN!”). I don’t blame CTG for that, I blame CMR for that because he is soft- the players do not fear him. No way something like that happens at Bama. Ever wonder why we lose these games at the end to a “bad break” all the time? It’s not luck. Luck is a one shot thing. If it happens on a regular basis somebody is doing something wrong to cause us to lose. All you Disney Dawgs are in denial. Fans from other programs see it–why can’t you?
LikeLike
Mark Richt said it was a coaching failure. He said no one reminded them to knock it down in the sideline huddle.
Remember Georgia tipped it in the air again near the end of the first half of the Kentucky game and twice at the end of the Georgia Tech game.
That doesn’t happen with a well coached team.
LikeLike
The only way Wilson bats the ball down against Tech is if he were a foot taller. And Swann did bat the ball down.
Did you even watch the game?
LikeLike
You’re right. The ball eventually came down 😉
LikeLike
Now that’s funny. Somebody tell you how the game ended, or did you read about it yourself?
LikeLike
In the 1980 Sugar Bowl, Scott Woerner, a junior or senior at the time, intercepted a 4th quarter 4th down pass when batting it down would have gained about 20 yards field position. Woerner is as savvy and shrewd as anybody who ever wore the Red and Black.
Color commentator Frank Broyles said he should have batted it down. Keith Jackson responded something like: that ball was as big as the moon Coach; these are young men.
Jackson spoke wisdom. That event helps me give a little slack to the 2 Georgia players involved in the Auburn miracle, and the coaches.
LikeLike
Ahh… I miss Keith Jackson.
LikeLike
Woerner should have batted the ball down. Keith Jackson just was making nice because Woerner at least caught the ball. JHC has got no such excuse. His glory-seeking cost UGA the game.
LikeLike
If you’re so smart Mayor, how come you’re not coaching.
LikeLike
Make sure you never let him forget it.
LikeLike
I’m sure his team-mates are already taking care of that.
LikeLike
Why so, Mayor, if the coaches don’t care? Wouldn’t his teammates be saying “I would have made the pick” instead?
LikeLike
Incredible as this may seem, there are some players on the team who undoubtedly care more about winning the game than padding their own personal stats. That is the reason for playing the game, isn’t it? To win? The way some on this blog have been writing on this issue there seems to be a lack of consensus about that. Better to “try to make a play” than do the simple things and win the game. Eh?
LikeLike
Why in the world do you think JHC was “glory seeking” instead of just trying to make an instinctual play on the ball?
Yes, all those famous DBs who have intercepted Hail Mary passes over the years…the endorsement deals just won’t stop rolling in for them.
That leap of judgment tells me you’re looking for fault in the team before it happens.
LikeLike
I’m just impressed that you were able to examine what was exactly in his heart/mind at the time of the play. The ability is really uncanny.
LikeLike
Watch the replay. I have. Apparently you haven’t.
LikeLike
Wait a minute….if we beat Auburn do I have to give back the “Miracles on Duval Street?” No damn thanks….wait till next year, by golly.
LikeLike
If the tip is batted down Auburn is out of the SECCG even if they beat Bama. If Auburn beats Bama, Bama still beats Mizzou and plays for the NC giving Auburn more grief. That luck gave them double the pleasure. Unreal.
LikeLike
What I still don’t understand is how Texas A&M is ranked ahead of us in any poll. Identical records and we actually beat a few good teams (granted we lost to Vandy) but still. If we get “win” credit for Auburn we should get “win” credit for Vandy as well, anyone who watched that game knows that if they don’t convert that 4th down we win the game.
LikeLike
Agree with you, the Vandy game was stolen and is an illegitimate victory to me. It was within our control to win the Auburn game with a knockdown, but even with a controllable mistake on our part it took a miracle for a completely clueless receiver to come into his hands from “football heaven” in full stride when he wasn’t even looking. His role in that play was worse than our two defenders and he was rewarded.
LikeLike
So tired of the coulda woulda shoulda won seasons. Before I die I want to see the dawgs have a season where they dominated every opponent. The OL showed up ready for a pass rush. Shut down CBs who aren’t lost in coverage. A game plan that doesn’t get conservative after a lead and leaves what works. A defense that doesn’t have to adjust its game plan at halftime because it was clueless the first half. MAYBE NEXT YEAR… whatever
LikeLike
Is there a team in America that shows up week in and week out and does this? Everyone needs a little luck to get into the championship. You know, unless you play in the ACC.
LikeLike
Maybe I over exaggerated. I know it’s stupid to expect that but it’s just a want. I’m just yearning for a complete team that yes will make some mistakes but doesn’t shot itself in the foot. Every year we are talking about what coulda happened if this or that woulda happened. We’re on the cusp every year but we just can’t get over the edge. I want to see a team that doesn’t lose to teams it should beat and finds a way to win against the strong teams.
LikeLike
God wasn’t on Richt’s side this season. The hand of God was with Auburn.
LikeLike
I’m not real sure God did that to us. Have you read “The Devil and Gus Malzhan”?
LikeLike
Auburn’s fans were praying more. What was I supposed to do?
LikeLike
See Nicky … I told you not to renege on our Deal!
LikeLike
[“In the end, winning is the name of the game, but beating Georgia took the hand of God, and beating Alabama also took some luck..”]
True. But in Georgia’s case, I guess God needed the help of not one, but two, dumb decisions to make the play work.
~~~
LikeLike
As I get older I begin to despise a portion of our fan base. I know they are simply some of the most vocal, but they embody the entitled and self centered nature of far too many “fans” who disappointment me. There is no joy in the victory, that is owed to them. There is only the anger in defeat, that other people failed to fulfill their “preordained” desires. They stand in amazement how weak, foolish, selfish and untalented the men and boys fighting for their right to victory fail them again and again. “How could I be failed so spectacularly?”, is their only feeling.
I know these people care nothing for my disappointment, but I feel embarrassed for them. They should want to be better fans.
LikeLike
Amen brother! We have some seriously entitled asshat “fans”. No victory is ever good enough and no defeat is ever warranted
LikeLike
an excellent summary of the entitlement generation…Well stated Mr smith.
LikeLike
Well said.
LikeLike
Well said Mr. Smith, you nailed it. I am also embarrassed by that segment, and sorry more fans don’t call them out for their misery. I am convinced there can’t be that many stupid fans in one program, I am convinced they feed off each other’s negativity and use the misery of each other to feel better about themselves. Misery does love company, or else they would have to face up to how pitiful they sound.
LikeLike
True, it not only sucks to be them and to be around them, it sucks to be on message boards and blogs with them. How would you like to go into battle with these type people?
LikeLike
Rec’d
LikeLike
+ 1000 Somehow, I fear this will closely resemble Bluto’s final blog posting someday.
LikeLike
Nah. I already know how that will read – greed ruined the game for me.
LikeLike
This. It’s becoming apparent to me that sometimes we get the outcomes our fan base deserves. What a dour bunch of assholes.
LikeLike
Typical straw man argument from the Disney dawgs. You act as if enjoying our team’s solid wins and recognizing areas where our program CLEARLY underachieves are mutually exclusive. Nobody who does one can possibly do the other, right? No “fan” has ever made a casual observation about something ailing a team and then simultaneously received enjoyment out of a good play, game or season. It’s just never, ever happened. Ever. 😉
LikeLike
“They stand in amazement how weak, foolish, selfish and untalented the men and boys fighting for their right to victory fail them again and again.”
LikeLike
If someone ever gives a logical rebuttal for which you have no response, just regurgitate the same rhetoric over and over until they quit. You’ll eventually win 😉
LikeLike
“None are so blind as those who will not see.”
LikeLike
+1000
I consider myself in the middle. I don’t want to hear constant negativity but I also can’t stand to be around people who can’t seem to tolerate anything other than sunshine and rainbows. And that goes for way more than just Georgia football.
LikeLike
Nobody should ever question the heart or play of Scott Woerner. I saw him play many times. If only we had his ilk playing D today. sigh…
LikeLike