Bummer, dudes.

This strong sense of pessimism many of you are giving about Georgia’s chances Saturday makes me feel weird, like there’s some big secret news you know about that I’m not privy to.  (Gurley’s not hurt, is he?)  Because on paper, it’s hard for me to see what’s the basis for all the gloom and doom.

For instance, take the advanced stats appraisal of the game.

The F/+ and S&P+ View of Tennessee-Georgia

OVERALL

When UT Has the ball…

When UGA has the ball…

Category

UT

UGA

UT Off.

UGA Def.

UT Def.

UGA Off.

F/+ Rk (Overall)

62 (0.4%)

14 (18.2%)

F/+ Change From Last Week

64 (+2)

13 (-1)

S&P+ Overall

46 (210.0)

16 (235.8)

FEI Overall

74 (-0.038)

13 (0.206)

S&P+ Rk (Overall)

210.0

235.8

85 (92.9)

40 (108.6)

29 (117.1)

7 (127.2)

Rushing S&P+ Rk

101 (0.418)

46 (0.417)

30 (0.402)

2 (0.636)

Passing S&P+ Rk

99 (0.467)

83 (0.523)

31 (0.458)

14 (0.638)

 

It’s not close.  Where Georgia is weak, Tennessee is even weaker.  And where UT is at its best, the Dawgs are dominant.

You guys gesture at a shaky Georgia secondary and fret.  I look at Tennessee’s offensive line and understand why Leonard Floyd can barely contain his glee.

Georgia beat Clemson at home by 24 points.  Tennessee’s defense isn’t as good as Clemson’s.  Georgia lost on the road to South Carolina by a mere three points. Tennessee’s offense isn’t as good as South Carolina’s.

Believe me, I get the any given Saturday aspect of this game as much as the next guy.  But it’s Tennessee that hemorrhages turnovers on the road to ranked teams.

What am I missing here, guys?

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70 Comments

Filed under Because Nothing Sucks Like A Big Orange, Georgia Football

70 responses to “Bummer, dudes.

  1. Castleberry

    I think it’s in our nature to be pessimistic. I also think a lot of us are scarred by Georgia laying big eggs either in Knoxville or in Athens. The noon kick doesn’t help much either. It feels like we are so much more invincible at night.

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  2. Leonard Floyd did not show up at all for the SC game. Ray Drew hasn’t really shown up yet this season. Jordan Jenkins got his first sack vs. Troy. Our defense hasn’t proved much to me yet this year. Combine that with UT’s offensive style which is very much based on momentum, speed, planning… combine that with UT’s bye week to plan for this game… I don’t think this one is a safe bet by any means.

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    • Also UT’s offense looked sloppy vs. Oklahoma but that was a national-level night game and a super loud environment. I don’t think Sanford at noon when the Dawgs are chasing SC in the division is going to rattle these guys much.

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  3. This game is always a boondoggle ( see our barely win last year) even during the Dooley era. Normal paranoia, induced by stupid 1st and goal calls such as we saw against Darth Visor. We need to acknowledge: the difference between national championship teams and not is a razor’s edge. 99.999% of teams tilt to the not side, and the .001% go the other way. Decisions like Bobo made are the reason we end up in the 99.999%. You simply cannot make stupid calls like that. The lack of perspective of having the best RB in the past 5 years at UGA not to mention the USA, and thinking you had to pass it? Really? And, sorry to say, we found out who Mason was on that play – not Murray. He is not ready to make key decisions yet, despite all the plaudits of his ‘steady’ play. He freaked out. Options available? Tuck it under your arm and run and try to get back to scrimmage; throw it out of the end zone where no one can reach it. But this lies with Bobo. Stupid and delusional. We could have fed SC a steady diet of Gurley, Hicks, Michel, Chubb and just killed them WITHOUT tiring Todd out. And also creating uncertainty about what our next plan was. Instead, Bobo decided to give it to him repeatedly, wear him down and ‘man up’. Not much nuance there. And hence, who knows what he will do this week.

    By the way, our D needs to play better. Calling Leonard Floyd. And anyone who can cover.

    Oh did I mention, I REALLY want the Dawgs to win? Really.

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    • Mason dropped the ball (literally) on that play, not Bobo. It was not a bad call from a coordinator standpoint. I’m wondering more how it will affect us going forward… do you think it hurts Bobo’s confidence in Mason? He could be having flashbacks to the Joe Cox era.

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      • Cosmic Dawg

        I’m glad you guys brought that 1st and goal play at SC up, I can’t think of a play so important but that has been so neglected here and elsewhere unless maybe it’s Murray not spiking the ball during the SECCG.

        I know Ivey in particular feels like he didn’t get much of an opportunity to discuss it in depth, maybe he’ll weigh in…

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        • Cojones

          You shouldn’t have gone there. He’s not doing well at all. Read his comparatively benign post below. Just not enough ashes in the hair. If the Karmic Bitches ever get mixed into this post-SC distress disorder (PSDD) wake bru-ha-ha……

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        • LOL. Yeah, I got pounded pretty good. Glad I wasn’t around for the ‘no spike’ call. It was probably worse – because of what was at stake – and went on for much longer.
          ~~~

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        • Cosmic Dawg

          No, no, I thought you made your point well and very politely…..you just kept getting dragged back into it. THAT part was funny to watch from the sidelines.

          And Cojones, given this beautiful run of football catastrophe in Knoxville, surely the KB’s hate TN even more than us?

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    • SlobberKnocker

      I’ve said it before here but, I’ll say it again. I would have given the ball to Gurley 4 times if it took that. But, two drives earlier we had the ball 1st and goal on the 5 and we called an identical play. Result? TD to Rome. Bobo knew that and he knew the previous TD we pounded with Hicks. He made a call that worked previously believing he had 3 more downs. It wasn’t a bad call, it was poor execution compounded by a quasi bad call (the ball was deflected but getting that to go in our favor is a stretch).

      I have yet to see anyone on this blog or anywhere else complain about the call that resulted in the TD to Rome. If it was the right call on 1st and 5 how is it the wrong call on 1st and 4?

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  4. Mg4life0331

    What are you missing? Georgia is the team playing Tennessee. Murphy’s law is always in effect.

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  5. JT

    Historically we have not played to our fullest ability against competition that isn’t as good as we are. We seem to not do this on a consistent basis.

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  6. kckd

    The game is not always close if the Dawgs win. 2010 and 2003 were blowouts. 2002, 2011 and 2008 were games that we should’ve put away, but didn’t. But I was never really that concerned we were gonna lose. We’ve beaten this team four times straight. Our starting safety ran for 120 on them last year with no deep threat at WR. Man up you vaginas.

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  7. Rebar

    Hopefully, we will win the turnover battle and not leave points on the field. If we do this, we win.

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  8. Senator, you merely lack the keen insight and direct knowledge of what Richt, Bobo and the players are thinking at every given moment (especially those that have passed) like so many around here do. *Get the Picture * man.

    /see what I did there?

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  9. uglydawg

    Tennessee is a young and not very strong college football team, playing on the road against a good Georgia team that has a couple of issues on defense..but also has a Heisman Trophy candidate at running back.. Any worries that Tennessee might come into Athens and prevail against UGA are based on superstision and unfounded pessimism which are probably founded on listening to Munson and Dooley back in the day. Sure, I’m worried but I’m not worried Georgia will lose, only that they will make me sweat bullets before putting the Vols away..

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  10. Justin

    Just can’t shake how beatable the secondary has looked. I’m not sitting here saying that Troy was worth a lick on O but there were definitely some moments where the secondary looked remarkably exposed. I counted at least 5 or 6 instances where a Troy receiver was wide open but the QB either threw the ball poorly or the WR/RB just plain dropped the ball. We were harassing the Troy QB but he still had time to find open receivers. I kept thinking during that game, “Man, it wouldn’t take much more than this Troy back-up to take advantage of the secondary.” I hope I’m wrong and that the D-line can control the UT passing game but until someone steps up (Sanders has given me some hope) I’ll be skeptical.

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  11. 69Dawg

    Unfortunately, the game is not played on paper and UT has demonstrated an ability to focus on us and cause us problems. If we get ahead and CJP can release the hounds (D Line and LB’s) on the QB we roll. If however we mess around and let UT stick around (see last year) this will be close and we don’t have Aaron to save us this year.

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    • G.H. Nowak

      This. I’ll bet that over the last ten years our record “on paper” is a lot better than our actual record. That’s been the case so far this year, as well. Yes, Dawgs should win the game. But based on everything I’ve seen from both teams this year, UT is more than capable of winning the game if they get a few breaks. And given the recent history of Georgia football, not hard to imagine that those breaks (in whatever form you can think of) happening.

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      • What have you seen from Tennessee?

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        • G.H. Nowak

          Well…saw about half of the Utah State and most of the OK game (the score of which would have been a lot closer if not for a 100 yard pick-six, 14-point turnaround). Considering the lack of line experience on both sides, they’re better than I thought they would be. No, they’re not great, but they’re not terrible either. I think they’re better than they were last year, and I think they’re better than the Vandy team that Georgia lost to last year. Given the extra week off and some breaks (turnovers, favorable calls, etc), yeah, I think they can beat us.

          Of course, I’ve seen a lot more of Georgia over the years, and I KNOW that the Dawgs are fully capable of losing a game that they should win. In that sense, how Georgia plays will be much more of a determining factor in the outcome than how UT plays, I think. And this Georgia team has shown vulnerability on defense (secondary) that I think that UT can exploit.

          Perhaps it’s just a difference in personality and outlook, but personally I find it hard to understand how any Dawg fan can go into one of these SEC rivalry games assuming a win, given the snakebit nature of our program (and a not-very-good defense).

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          • kckd

            It also would’ve been a lot worse if OU had not settled for FGs. Not blown coverage on two third and longs on UTK’s first touchdown drive. Not botched a punt return that UTK recovered after it bounced off an OU blocker. None of those things had anything to do with UTK playing well, but everything to do with OU mistakes.

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  12. Sashko

    Stats and their trends are completely irrelevant when Georgia and Tennessee meet on the field. Sure the trends show up in the game, but I would argue that historically they haven’t meant much to the team that took home the W.

    As an example – Pig Howard’s fumble last year.

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    • Cojones

      And “Pig” has become the driving force of their O. He’s prominently on every Tenn highlight reel/video. And he certainly was the reason we won last year. I felt sorry for him after that game, but knowing his feelings for retribution against us plus a good year thus far i wouldn’t put it out of reach that he may decide the fate of this game again.

      We don’ ned no stinkin’ stats. We can make ourselves miserable natural-like.

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    • Raleigh St. Claire

      Stats and trends are never irrelevant and people only say things like that when the stats and trends don’t support the position being advanced by the person disavowing stats and trends.

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      • Sashko

        Stats and trends are not predictors of the future. They are merely indicators and limited indicators based upon the sample. How many times has Georgia had the superior statistical edge and left the game with a L? In the NFL, stats and trends mean something. In College Football, stats and trends aren’t effective measures of the intangibles like team and player position discipline, which shape the outcomes of games in dramatic ways. That’s how these million dollar coaches turn programs around quickly – getting the players to master the basics for which there is no statistical measure.

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        • Raleigh St. Claire

          None of what you just said is true. There are literally hundreds of predictive stats in college football and just about any other activity.

          Suggesting the opposite is just ignorant.

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          • Sashko

            And what stat measures the efficacy of a player’s technique? What stat measures a player’s mastery the playbook or scheme?

            Leonard Floyd had incredible stats last year as a Freshman despite failing miserably in those two categories. Would you argue that the Bulldogs wouldn’t be better off with a Leonard Floyd that had excellent technique and an excellent understanding of his role? His stats may or may not be any different as a result, but the team would be better because player consistency is one key separation from college football to the NFL.

            This is why Appalachia State beats Michigan. College football isn’t a science. And if you’re going to argue – make an argument. I have better things to do than argue ideas with someone who just wants to insult me.

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          • Sashko

            Now we see which position was ignorant Raleigh.

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  13. I think you know my thoughts already, which are basically twofold: 1) Are we mentally prepared for what Tennessee is bringing (we’ll get their best shot), and 2) Will we play smart and solid, and not give the game away.

    If the answer to both of those is yes, then the paper will be correct. They can’t beat us without help.
    ~~~

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  14. Cojones

    It’s a bitch to watch old men twist their shriveled hands in agony. Heading into my 75th year doesn’t help matters. We are of a worrying generation and we will worry, screw the stats. We’ve seen too many dick-trippers on our team and too many victory-snatchers on their team so that we are cautious with our emotions when playing any SEC team.

    Does anyone have a sense of timing for our pregame prayer on here? I say we make it tomorrow night when the atmosphere gets more sullen. Is that “ok” with you, Senator?

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  15. (Gurley’s not hurt, is he?)

    Hope not. Don’t really think so. Richt firmly says no. But something has been bothering me all week.

    I haven’t seen nor heard this anywhere, this is just me, and I sure don’t want to start anything. But I got the impression, on Gurley’s last 2 runs, particularly his last one, when he sort of just fell down, that something was wrong. He seems to (almost) grab at his right upper thigh before he stumbled.

    Knowing Gurley very well, and how he can hide his hurts and weaknesses, it’s bothered me since the game. Been anxious to see him go Saturday because I can tell when he’s anything less than 100%.

    Hoping there’s nothing to it and again, please don’t take this for anything more than what it is – an observation, that could be very wrong.
    ~~~

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    • aikendawg

      UT will play as hard as they can against us and they had an off week. CBJ is a solid coach and he will have a solid game plan. But with CWM coaching their secondary and their youth on the OL the dawgs will pull away in the second half and win 48-23. Then in the next 2 weeks we will get JSW and hopefully MM back and we will start to roll with at least 1 deep threat and hopefully 2. Mark it down fellow dawgs we will be in Atlanta representing the east. GATA JYD!!!!

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    • Raleigh St. Claire

      Good God. How utterly ridiculous.

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  16. Rusty

    As much as I love the Dawgs and Mark Richt. I’m generally a pessimist simply because we never seem to be able to make the leap to the top. We always miss it by a hair, or a brain fart, or just bad luck. Yeah I think we beat UT, but I understand the mentiality. Right or wrong, our fans carry emotional baggage.

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    • aikendawg

      good point rusty but most every fan base carries emotional baggage especially in the sec. even the bama fanbase has a portion of this as much as they would never admit it. when you love your team as much as we love the dawgs this will always be. that’s why college football is the best sport on the planet. GATA JYD

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  17. Granthams replacement

    Richt’s teams can pull a “Georgia” at any point during a season. Happens quite often vs UT. Beyond Crompton, 2006 up 24-14 right before half, 2004 12 pt favorite, 2007 28-0 in the 2nd qtr………..

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    • Raleigh St. Claire

      Does it really happen quite often against Tennessee? Or, does the team have a chance tomorrow to tie the all-time series record due to Richt’s success against them after the dark days of the 90’s?

      Facts are a beautiful thing for those of us who are willing to look at and accept them.

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      • Cojones

        Looky here, Rawly. We came here to complain – to give Bluto a sense of how we really can go at it when there’s nothing to complain about. If you can’t stand watching young and old Dawgs rolling around in something dead and foul smelling, then you haven’t gotten the drift of this cathartic fal-de-ral.

        Please respect this scientist’s day off. Today the S&PPPs, the use of a cap F without placing a U behind it, FEIs that aren’t extra monies sought by McGarity; all are on the blackboard while we are having an outdoor class rolling around in the foul-smelling crud we impose on ourselves. It could turn into a ritual that gives us peace without having to die early, similar to a cowboy movie where even the good guys get killed and there is no redeeming value.

        Please excuse me. I have to find what time we are having vespers.

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  18. W Cobb Dawg

    On paper we shoulda beat scu. We had a weeks rest and they were on the ropes. But we went right back to showing why this was a 5 loss team last year. Never underestimate our ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. Yes, a top team would beat UT handily.

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  19. aikendawg

    My God you fellow dawgs are pathetic. quit the bitching and moaning and MAN UP. bringing up last year w cobb dawg is silly. we lost almost every playmaker we had and still fought our butts off the last 6 games, what good does it do to continue moaning and groaning? get behind this bunch 100% and accept the fact that we will probably struggle for a while on defense. but also remember that cjp has the last 3 nc rings on his hand and I promise you he knows what he is doing. GATA JYD

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  20. I Wanna Red Cup

    I think the DL will dominate the UT OL. They do not have the OT or the interior line that the Cocks had. i see us scoring 40 or more on the urange, who have the worst D of any we have faced (not counting Troy). The only wild card is the TO battle. So far we have been very sound. If we are equal on TO we win by 20 or more. Our DL and OL are better than theirs and our skill guys will carry the day. I admittedly am a Disney Dawg but some of you guys are just crazy.

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  21. All,
    I looked up Dooley in the lexicon. It appears as a noun, but i think it should have a separate entry as a verb, so it could be conjugated. I.E.; Dooley, Doolied, Dooliing, (Take that speelchecker) ex:
    “Georgia fans were Dooliing the Tennessee team because Tennessee has an outstanding long snapper.”

    Like

  22. H. Boots

    None of these girls are Larry Munson but they seem to think they are. Larry was great but I feel his legacy was leaving behind a generation of sissy-fans who are afraid to enjoy a little optimism. I CANNOT TAKE THE HAND WRINGING. Sack up you pussies.

    We need more Erk and less Larry in this fan base.

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    • If Georgia were sitting here at 3-0, the optimism around this place would be intolerable. But, UGA lost to the last real team they played. Why is it so bad to be gun shy when the next opponent in particular has found a way to play UGA close despite being out-manned the last three seasons?

      In 2013, Tennessee fumbled away a TD in overtime to set up UGA’s game-winning field goal, and would have won in regulation if not for Murray feeding the multitudes and walking on water in the 4th quarter. In 2012 (in Sanford), the Tennessee team that would eventually end up 5-7 (and get Dooley canned) had the ball at the end with a chance to tie, losing 51-44. In 2011, a 5-7 Tennessee team kept it close with UGA despite -20 yards rushing, losing 20-12.

      Much like South Carolina, Tennessee seems to give UGA their best shot every year. If this is the game they are most focused, most disciplined, and get a few breaks, UGA will have an awfully hard time covering the largest point spread in matchup history… especially in a noon kickoff.

      Georgia is the much better team. But, that hasn’t stopped them before. I think UGA will win. (I also thought UGA would beat South Carolina by 10, so what I think matters not.) I hope they embarrass Tennessee to the point where they consider canning their defensive staff at the half. I want to score 60 on them to make up for what their turf did to our team last season. I want Gurley to firmly plant himself as the Heisman front-runner by having one of those days we talk about on here for the next decade or three. And, if there were one thing I could do to make the team win, I would do it. I don’t call the plays. I don’t wash the jerseys or wrap ankles. All I can do is scream until I’m hoarse, which I always do anyway.

      But, waiting for the other shoe to drop is ingrained in our nature because it always happens. So what does my (admittedly fragile) psyche have to do with UGA’s chances tomorrow?

      Like

  23. Mary Kate Danaher

    “Much like South Carolina, Tennessee seems to give UGA their best shot every year.”

    What on earth does this even mean? I read this same cliche every week; “Clemson always gives UGA their best shot”, “South Carolina always gives UGA their best shot”, yada, yada, yada. Are you suggesting that some teams ignore Georgia? That some teams don’t prepare for Georgia?

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    • I think it’s great that Georgia got UT’s best shot last year, considering the Vols beat South Carolina a couple of weeks later.

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    • I’m saying that not all teams on the schedule are created equal. Georgia doesn’t play to the same level every week. They gear up for some games more than others. The opponents do the same. When the opponent has a lot of players from the state of Georgia, they look at this game in particular as one they really, really want to win. Spurrier wants to beat Georgia more than any other opponent on his schedule every year. That doesn’t mean he doesn’t want to win them all, but he puts in extra effort for that one.

      If you don’t believe in the up-and-down effort/focus roller coaster, you must not watch much college football.

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      • The opponents do the same.

        Do you watch UT football frequently enough to make the assertion that the Vols get up for the Georgia game more than any other?

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        • Yes. I watch a lot of football. I’m watching the New Mexico vs Fresno St game right now. I don’t think Tennessee gets up for UGA more than any other game. I said Tennessee tends to give UGA their best shot. Maybe, semantically I should have said they generally play surprisingly well vs UGA mixed with UGA consistently playing poorly against weaker competition resulting in games that are closer than the talent on paper suggests. Is that better?

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  24. It wouldn’t be Georgia football without fans trying to convince others of why we’ll lose. The Georgia way..

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  25. Cojones

    Well. That felt good. Gonna wash up now, fashion a blunt for tomorrow and wash my truck flag.

    Think I’ll drive by the Mall and see if those two thieving co-eds are still washing cars in their tee shirts. Or to see if one of my bar buddies left walker tracks in the parking lot while chasing them. Can’t miss the 82yr-old’s walker: It’s the one with the racing stipes, the antenna with panties on it and a circle of condoms hanging on a wire threaded through them on the grips. The girls have an Italian nickname for him: Animale!

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