Early thoughts on Missouri

Over at Dawgs247, Jake Rowe posts five things about Missouri football.

The matchup between Missouri’s defensive ends and Georgia’s offensive tackles is scary.  But it sounds like McKenzie may have a decent chance of popping a good punt return.

Both teams are very good with regard to turnover margin, which means it’s something to keep an eye on.  (When is it not?)  But I hardly know what to make of this:

Whether you think you can or can’t run the football effectively against Missouri, you are probably right. The Tigers’ run defense has been up and down all season. In wins against South Dakota State, Central Florida, and South Carolina, the Tiger defense has held the opposition to just 2.8 yards per carry. But in a 49-24 win at Toledo and a 31-27 home loss to Indiana, Mizzou has surrendered just over 4.8 yards per rush. The Tigers gave up six rushing touchdowns in those two games, which is double the total from the other three games.

If Georgia’s running game is held to an average of 2.8 ypr, this game won’t be close.

52 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football

52 responses to “Early thoughts on Missouri

  1. Biggus Rickus

    As long as Gurley is healthy, they won’t be held to anything approaching 2.8 YPC. The key will be how the defensive line handles what has been a below average Missouri offensive line. If they keep the running backs in check and get to Mauk, they can have a successful day. If not, I foresee a lot of big plays in the passing game for Missouri. At which point it will be up to the offense and return teams to outscore them.

    Like

  2. Raleigh St. Claire

    Our offensive tackles this year, especially Theus, have been good, so I’m not sure why that is scary.

    Like

    • Theus has been up and down. His footwork seems inconsistent to me. He’s looked good because he’s blocking for Gurley and because Mason tends to get rid of the ball quickly.

      Like

      • Agree. I believe one of Missouri’s main goals is to try to control the game with their pass rush. They don’t think our tackles can control their rush, and I don’t either.

        To get us into that situation is key for them, IMO. To do that, they’ll have to control our running game enough to force us into passing situations, so they can tee off on us.

        On the other hand, in order to run effectively I believe we’ll have to have a somewhat decent passing game. Especially in the first half. Later on, toward the 4th quarter, if we’re ahead or very close, we can likely start pounding the ball.

        I hope we run off their edges all day, just right at those DE’s. That would take a toll on them as the game wears on, IMO. Plus, they wouldn’t be quite as effective at rushing the passer, either. And we’ve had a lot, if not most, of our success this year running at the edges.

        The other thing is when we throw, particularly in the first half, I hope the plan includes a host of plays where we can get rid of the ball quick. If we have a little success with that, and we’re effectively running the ball, it’ll open up some play-action opportunities to try to get something deep.
        ~~~

        Like

    • No doubt they have been improved, and they seem to do pretty well in pass protection on 1st and 2nd down, but it seems like anytime we are in obvious passing downs (aka 3rd and long), Mason ends up getting swarmed. I mean yes, logically, there’s gonna be more pressure on obvious passing downs, but often times it seems like Mason doesn’t even have a chance to look downfield before he’s getting pressured on those plays. They need to buy him another second or two.

      Like

      • +1, Reverend.

        … there’s gonna be more pressure on obvious passing downs, but often times it seems like Mason doesn’t even have a chance to look downfield before he’s getting pressured on those plays.

        Great point. See my reply to Bluto, above. Had I seen this, I’d have posted it here.
        ~~~

        Like

    • Doggoned

      I have always liked Theus, but he is not blessed with great footspeed, and he has a lot of problems getting to speed-rushers.

      Like

    • What’s scary is how good the two Mizzou DEs are, particularly Shane Ray.

      Like

  3. Biggus Rickus

    It should also be noted that the South Carolina running backs averaged 4.8 and 4.7 YPC. It was sacks that deflated their average.

    Like

  4. law dawg

    Our team average yards/attempt is 7.01, Gurley is 8.2. USCe: 4.56, UCF 2.8, SDSU 5.3. I would say Missouri holding SDSU to it’s average and bringing a team like SDSU down 2.5 ypc isn’t much of an accomplishment. What they did to South Carolina may or may not be admirable (Carolina’s nose-dive has made it hard to judge), but Mizzou has not faced a rushing attack like ours. I don’t see anything that they have done this season that leads me to believe they will be the first to contain Gurley. I think this game comes down to us winning turnover margin and the defense making a stand at some point to let us outscore Mizzou.

    Like

    • So. IL Dawg

      The biggest thing that will derail the Dawgs run game would be if Mizzou jumps out to a big lead and we’re forced to pass much like the game in Columbia, SC two years ago. If that happens on Saturday, our run game will suffer. Hopefully, we come out and move the ball on offense and score points to keep their defense honest.

      Like

    • Mayor

      Basically USCe had their game against Mizzou in the bag until, inexplicably, the Cocks’ O couldn’t get a 1st down near the end of the 4th quarter. Then, likewise inexplicably, the Cocks’ D couldn’t stop the Mizzou O when they had stopped it all game long, leading to a 1 point loss. Carolina should have won that game. If Georgia just plays like Georgia has been playing, the Dawgs should win. But it won’t be easy.

      Like

  5. Russ

    If they hold us to 2.8 YPC, they deserve it.

    Like

  6. charlottedawg

    Piggy back off the senator, Gurley and Chubb need to have big days because Mauk certainly will. And before anybody goes there we don’t have a pass rush and nobody’s afraid of Floyd or Jenkins. What we have is send 5 guys and pray to God one of them doesn’t get picked up, because if not, completion. This however is still better than the alternative of having every qb have time and inevitably pick our secondary apart.

    Like

    • Pretty much agree, charlottedawg, except that I expect Floyd and Jenkins to have a pretty good game. Still, Mauk will get his yardage. The questions are: how many of their drives will result in TDs, will our punting and kick coverage keep the field long and will we break 40 points on our side? Also, like all of us, I keep waiting for the magic game in which the downfield pass game is there. It showed a pulse against Vandy. If and when it clicks with any consistency, our already efficient O will become absolutely deadly. Maybe, just maybe, this Saturday will be that day.

      Like

    • Dang, you said what I’ve been thinking but was scared to say about Jenkins and Floyd. Jenkins is better at fighting through blocks than Floyd, but neither seems to do a great job. If Floyd goes unblocked, he gets to the QB as quick as anybody, but if the OL gets their hands on him at all, he doesn’t seem to be able to do much. Based on the preseason hype I thought this would be the last year we’d have Floyd, but he really needs to put on another 15-20 lbs of muscle before he starts considering the NFL (and I’m not saying he was considering it, I have no idea what his thought process has been). Of all of them, Carter is probably the one I’ve noticed fighting through blocks the most. Drew and Toby do a pretty decent job of it as far as the interior linemen go.

      Like

  7. What’s the word on Sony? Sure would like to have a 3 headed running monster over a 2. Have I missed the latest on his status?

    Like

  8. Macallanlover

    We will not get held to 2.8 YPC unless we run the damn ball too much. If we balance the running game with enough passing Mizzou is not good enough defensively to keep us under 400 yards of total offense (and I don’t really care how much of that yardage comes from the run game.) Problem is, we are unlikely to hold them below that number either.

    I have no idea of how this game goes but I am pretty sure Todd Gurley will carry his share of the load, and both teams will enjoy offensive success. My guess is we are just under a 50/50 chance of winning; capable of a W for sure, but I cannot put us as a favorite against anyone that can throw the ball reasonably well from what I have seen. On the plus side, we seem to be narrowing the gap in coverage which puts us in a better position to make tackles sooner, or get an errant throw.

    Like

  9. Cojones

    Char’ is stating the way it is and I agree as well. Slaw, you’re stating the hope we have and that we share for this Sat. We all will wait with baited breath for the next two games since we aren’t characterizing our opponents as we did preseason. All of our opponents have gotten better while we have come down an expectation notch.

    I still can’t believe we are kicking off at 11:00 AM. Tailgaters can have b’fast with Bloody Marys before the game, but how far ahead is the team b’fast? Of course, Mimosas can be for brunch, but there ain’t going to be no brunch time. Now, after the game….

    Like

  10. sUGArdaddy

    2013 UGA vs. Mizzou (yes, I know we had Aaron Murray)

    No Gurley, No Marshall, No Chubb, No Bennett, No JSW, No Mitchell.

    With Conley, Davis and Wooten at WR and Green & Douglas at RB…

    -454 yards of offense
    -JJ Green – 12 carries, 87 yards
    -Brendan Douglas – 14 carries, 70 yards
    -We lost the turnover battle 4-0, with them getting 7 on a scoop and score and us fumbling inside their 5 before the half on a sure TD drive. We lost by 15. There’s your 2 TDs right there.

    Gurley had 10 carries for 65 yards and a TD the 2nd game of his career up there in 2012 when he hardly knew what he was doing. He’s going to gash the living daylights out of them. 225-250 yards, 3 TDs, #handhimtheH3ISMAN

    Like

    • eeeh…I see what you did there SD…I won’t fall for it this time around, but would love to see a ‘told you so’ follow up post from you later this Saturday.

      Like

      • Moe Pritchett

        he may have a point….
        South Carolina: 30 carries, 142 yards, TD
        Indiana: 44 carries, 246 yards, 3 TD
        Toledo: 15 carries, 148 yards, 3 TD
        SDSU: 17 carries, 103 yards, 2 TD
        Gurley had 65yds on 10 carries up there as a freshman. And I bet he knew three plays: run right, run left, run middle. I have seen a couple of other people say he betters his Clemmons game. Run Isaiah Wynn in there as a TE and turn the OL loose. ….now, about our secondary…..

        Like

      • sUGArdaddy

        Trust the Gurley, brother. He’s not going to let us lose.

        Like

    • Did Bennett catch a pass against Vandy?

      Like

  11. DawginExile

    I’m still waiting for a Floyd break-out game this year. Hope it’s Saturday.

    Like

  12. John Denver is full of shit...

    There isn’t a team in FBS that can hold UGA to 2.8ypr

    Like

  13. CannonDawg

    Last year Mizzou followed the UT game with all the medevacs, and the sheer number of injuries finally caught up with us. This year the injury list is far shorter, and the returning skill players should add some play-making potential to our offense. Hoping this is the game where the defense finally turns the corner and gives a solid, four-quarter performance.

    Like

  14. Castleberry

    I’m hoping you’re right on McKenzie. We’ll need some third down stops to give him that chance. Seems like those have been hard to come by in our big SEC games so far…

    Like

  15. Doggoned

    The good news seems to be that these two teams seem a lot alike and should be well matched. That could also be the bad news. Both teams are consistently inconsistent, which probably means that the team who shows up ready to play is going to win and take command of the SEC E.

    Like

  16. Studawg

    At #23, Missouri is overrated. They lost to the best team they played against, Indiana for crying out loud. The win over SC is not that impressive. SC is just not a very good football team and they were lucky to beat UGA. Gurley will run for 190 yds, Ramsey will have 2 TD passes and UGA will have a defensive TD. UGA 38-24 due to a late TD by Missouri.

    Like

    • CannonDawg

      Nice script, Stu. I’d take it in a heartbeat, but my fear is we’ll let them hang around too long. We sometimes have such a tendency. Putting them away early would certainly be a terrific start to the long road stretch.

      Like

      • … my fear is we’ll let them hang around too long.

        A legitimate concern, IMO. I wish it wasn’t. But if we get a lead, and let up, after seeing what they did already to South Carolina .. shame on us.
        ~~~

        Like

  17. AusDawg85

    Let ‘me stop the run. With both MM and JSW back, Gurley’s .560 passer rating will eat them alive.

    Like