As you can imagine, they’re a lot more fun to read after the Arkansas game.
- Georgia is the only team in the East with better than a 50% chance to go 7-1 in the conference.
- Bill now has Georgia listed as a favorite in all of its remaining SEC matches, including Auburn. (He assigns Florida a 2.6% chance of winning in Jax.)
The number that really jumps out at me is that he projects Ole Miss to have better than a 50% chance to run the table. Out of the SEC West. Wow.
Get The Picture 
The Magnolia State is just getting too much good publicity these days
LikeLike
That sounds like Georgia against Ole Miss in the SECCG. Look at Georgia’s track record historically against Ole Miss. I really like our chances now. PLEASE let this be so!!!
LikeLike
Please do not take this argumentatively but how do games played 30 years ago affect the outcome of a game to be played in December 2014?
LikeLike
Gah…if you don’t know, we aren’t going to tell you.
LikeLike
OK – would really like Mr. Connely to explain the math there. Let’s be generous and say we have a 60% chance of beating Auburn, and an 80% chance in each of the UF and UK games. That would be a .6.8.8 = 38% chance of going 7-1. How the hell does he have us at 56.9%, even if our odds were 70%, 90% and 90% in those games it wouldn’t be that high (and those are insanely optimistic).
I call BS.
LikeLike
Oh, I see he does explain the math – and gives us a 97% chance in both the UF and UK games.
That’s crazy. That indicates that against both teams we would win 32 out of 33 games. No way in hell.
LikeLike
His probability numbers are fresh this year, so time may tell. But so far they are extremely reliable. In fact, so far teams that are projected a percent chance in the 90s are actually winning at a rate in the upper 90s. Of course, Florida (or Kentucky) could be one of that handful of upsets, but Connelly’s numbers are based on objective measurements of how the teams have actually played so far and they produce accurate probability hierarchies. He’s not just plugging in his own personal guesses.
That said, I fully expect us to be the 1 in 33 and lose to Florida next week. Nothing would be more horrible, and as a Georgia fan I can’t just shake the specter of it happening.
LikeLike
If true, that’s pretty astounding. I really thought only cupcake games were won at at 97% clip. It will be interesting to see if that record holds up.
LikeLike
Also, I don’t think he’s yet figured out a way to account for injuries/suspensions to key players (so the numbers just look at results, not that we played two games without Gurley, or that Clemson’s D faced FSU without Winston, etc.)
LikeLike
Lulz…thanks for that.
LikeLike
First season really checking his numbers this year and I must say that it has been really fun to read through. I would recommend everyone do it…
Though I am pretty confused about UGA’s S&P
LikeLike
Upset special: LSU over Ole Miss. Why? Les
LikeLike
Ole Miss plays at LSU Saturday night. Then plays Auburn, at Arkansas and Mississippi State. They’re not running the table. I think Bama loses again maybe at LSU or to Auburn and beats Mississipppi State. Egg Bowl will decide the SEC West but both teams will have a loss going in. Just my humble prediction.
LikeLike
I think you may be correct. But add to that the scenario where the winner of the Iron Bowl will have beaten the winner of the Egg Bowl, to advance to the SECCG.
LikeLike
Auburn loses to the Dawgs of course giving them their 2nd loss.
LikeLike
I think Alabama won’t lose again until they face us in the SECCG
LikeLike
If we could go in there and beat them, boy, that would exorcise some 2012 demons. And how great would it be if Conley scored the winning TD?
LikeLike
All depends on if the good Dr. Bo can avoid idiotic turnovers over that stretch. Because that D is 2011 Bama/LSU-level good, or at least close enough given the lack of great QB play in the SEC this season.
LikeLike
I think that most of us had these thoughts intuitively about UGA. The math only reinforces it. It’s time now for the boo-birds to chime in and kill our buzz.
Keep the stats coming ,Senator. With the bye week calculated in next week, it should be an interesting read. Surprised that the % worked out mathematically as to Auburn having a 40% chance to beat us. That’s a 20% diff, folks, and right in line with homeristic thoughts.
Hey, Cos, how do those numbers appeal to you? There’s still room up top
LikeLike
I find those numbers mighty appealing. I am strangely unconcerned about Florida but Kentucky could be a mess if we are not prepared. I like that KY team pretty good, actually, last week notwithstanding.
LikeLike
Of the Mississippi teams, I think Ole Miss is better. They have a D that has been playing lights out.I think Miss St has been in the right place at the right time thus far. We all know aTm was a sham, so that win is eh. We also know that LSU is not a typical LSU team. Finally, the one game they played against a legit team this year, in Auburn, had 2 early TO, which they used to put up a 14-0 lead. From there, Auburn was playing catch-up, which it really has not had to do. Thus, I see them losing to Bama and probably losing the egg bowl.
LikeLike
I believe Bo Wallace will have a WTF day and my general distaste and skepticism for the propriety of Ole Miss’ recruiting under Freeze has be hoping for different than you project.
LikeLike
MSU turned it over 4 times themselves and still won by 15. MSU is a better all around team than Ole Miss, but they are not as good on either side of the ball as Ole Miss is on defense. The Egg Bowl will be interesting.
LikeLike
All we need to do is to beat UF and UK, then to bust out the Black jerseys and crush Auburn in a Black Out at home.
LikeLike
Uggh. Please no. If we can’t get up to beat Auburn and make Sanford just as electric in our normal jerseys we don’t deserve to win.
LikeLike
I much prefer the RED OUT. It gets the crowd pumped up without feeling like a gimmick. Although the last time we wore black against AU it was a curb stomping. Give me that result and I don’t care what color the unis are.
LikeLike
There will never be another black out game in Athens. How can you even think that after the Alabama blackout of 2008!😰
LikeLike
I was just commenting to a friend earlier this evening that I was wondering where you had been all season, joy. I have genuinely missed reading your comments.
LikeLike
How sweet of you to say that. I am here every day. 😉
LikeLike
Hate to be a buzz kill but Mizzou is heavily favored in all its remaining games. We still have the reptiles and aubrin to play. If we don’t run the table and Mizzou does then they go with one loss and we play in another runner up bowl with our 2 conference losses.
LikeLike
Actually, these projections give Missouri only a 38.8% chance of beating UT in Knoxville.
I still think A&M in College Station is the most likely loss on Mizzou’s remaining schedule, but Connelly gives MU a 75% chance of winning that game, and his projection model has proved to be pretty sterling so far.
LikeLike
Each week the odds change though, too. I mean, that’s obvious and proper because each week new games are played and new data is compiled. The odds the week of a given game are the ones that are solid gold. Of course, a 75% chance doesn’t mean you will win, just that we can expect 3 of every 4 teams with that chance to win. Your team might be the 1 in 4 for that week . . .
A&M may look a little better over the next few weeks and that may shift the odds a bit by the time their game with mizzou comes around. Georgia and Florida don’t play this week, but their relative rankings and F+ numbers will still change due to what everyone else does this week. But it stands to reason that no matter what we’ll stay well above 90% for next weekend. But, again, we could be the 1 in 20 that loses, so . . .
LikeLike
Given the current rate of play of Mizzou’s O and TAMU’s D that’s going to be quite the resistible force meets the moveable object.
LikeLike