Thayer Evans and Pete Thamel touch on something I had pondered in the preseason when I came up with my SEC preseason prediction list – the effect of what seems to be a rapidly accelerating trend of football underclassmen leaving early for the NFL draft.
When the No. 1 Bulldogs visit the No. 4 Crimson Tide on Saturday, the only thing bigger than the stakes is the surprise that this game — often an afterthought for the Tide — looms as the biggest in college football this season. The rise of Mississippi State, the inconsistency of Alabama and parity in the SEC can best be explained by, well, college basketball.
How? Think of Mississippi State like Wichita State, Butler or George Mason. The Bulldogs are a cohesive program with a strong system and savvy veterans that’s thrived thanks to continuity, player development and strong coaching. Losing no players early to the NFL Draft the last two years has fortified and stabilized the program.
Consider Alabama — and LSU for that matter — as a football version of Kentucky basketball. Those programs are constantly scrambling to replace high-end talent. Along the way, they’ve occasionally relied on unreliable players. The Crimson Tide have lost eight players to early entry the past two seasons, and LSU lost a jaw-dropping 18 non-seniors to early entry over the past two years.
“The truth of it is in a parallel universe, Alabama and LSU have become the Kentucky of college football,” said Phil Savage, the former Cleveland Browns general manager who does color commentary for Alabama broadcasts.
In the macro, it’s easy to see why there’s more parity in the SEC and college football overall. According to statistics provided by the NFL, there were 102 players who declared early for the 2014 NFL Draft, including 28 from the SEC. That’s more than double the 46 players from FBS schools who declared early in 2009. It’s even a sharp spike from the 73 players in 2013. (It’s just as eyebrow-raising that 37 early entrants went undrafted in 2014).
What the exodus has done is allow non-traditional programs with strong systems — Mississippi State, Arizona State, TCU, Kansas State and Ole Miss — to be in national title contention alongside the usual collection of blue bloods. Savage runs the Senior Bowl and the most telling statistic about the drop in veteran talent in the SEC this year comes from his invitation list. In each of the last two years, Savage issued more than 30 invitations to SEC players. This year, that number has dipped to 20 (juniors are not eligible).
“With all the juniors [leaving early], it’s really impacted the SEC and beyond,” Savage said. “Look at Alabama, LSU and Florida State. People are saying they’re not as dominant as they’ve been? How could they be? Sure, they have talent, but it takes time to get it all together.”
The comparison is a bit overdrawn in a couple of ways – football rosters are much bigger than basketball ones and football doesn’t have a one-and-done model with regard to its biggest starts – but there is some validity to it. You don’t lose 18 underclassmen in a single draft without taking some kind of hit. And Mullen’s patience in assembling the most experienced squad in the SEC has paid off big time this season. But I’m not sure that’s an automatic thing every season.
In any event, I doubt the trend has escaped the all-seeing eye of Nick Saban. But outside of discouraging his kids from leaving early for the NFL, I’m not exactly sure what else he can do to fight it. Except lobby for college player payment, maybe, to lessen the incentive to move on to the next level. Should be an interesting development to watch.
There’s something not right about the idea of MSU having superior continuity, and not losing any juniors to draft. First, if they had any draft worthy underclassmen, those players probably would have declared. Second, now that the team is good, the players are gonna get attention, and higher draft ratings, and more juniors will leave.
Conclusion: unless Miss. State can start recruiting like Bama and LSU, its high perch is going to be short term.
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Agree. Building it is a lot harder than sustaining it. To sustain it, you need a lot more going in your favor than a good group of upperclassmen.
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(See Meyer, Urban)
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I think a lot of it also has to do with promising playing time and college freshman being more ready to contribute than they’ve ever been. Guys are now making their names known in their first 2-3 years of college instead of their last 2-3.
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Promising early playing time
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That TV revenue be of some assistance in Starkvegas, too.
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That’s grossly overstated. MSU was built the way MSU has to be built, and years like the one they’re enjoying will be few and far between. Everything has to break right, and a lot of guys have to develop over a 4 or 5 year span into legitimately good SEC players. And even if it works out as it has this year, those guys are all gone the next year, and you start all over again from scratch.
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One other thing the article overlooks is that schools like MSU have always had the option of aggressively redshirting classes to build experienced depth.
But I do think there’s some validity to how the trend affects schools like LSU.
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Oh, sure. Early departures will deplete a few top programs, though I think using Alabama and FSU, two teams who are at least good bets to make the four team playoff, as part of the example was pretty dumb.
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So I guess for State, anyway, being a non-entity football-wise for a while has been part of a process pointing to this year.
I don’t think this is really much different from Georgia’s situation except that the pressure to perform EVERY year is far greater.
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As it should be given the difference in talent pool, national prominence, etc., right?
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It would help if Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Tennessee, and South Carolina would keep their toes outta our pool.
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Same situation and all…..I guess you think lower expectations is the key to success and bettering yourself.
NFL Draft Picks from High School State (1988-2012):
Georgia 306
MIssissippi 137
All Time Record:
Georgia 768-406-54 (.647)
MSU 531-555-39 (.489)
Naitional Titles:
Georgia 2
MSU 0
SEC Conference Titles:
Georgia 12
MSU 1
Heisman Winners:
Georgia 2
MSU 0
Bowl Record:
Georgia 27-18-3 (.594)
MSU 11-7 (.611)
All-Americans:
Georgia 24
MSU 2
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I’m not as sure as you seem to be about that. This State team was built over several years using redshirting. Sure, they have several seniors leaving after this season and may go down some but I don’t think they fall all the way back–more like down to 9-4 or something like that IMHO.
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They have 13 senior starters and 18 seniors in their two-deep. Their two best offensive players are Juniors, but I think both will declare for the draft this year. IF Prescott returns, maybe they make it to 9-4 next year. If not, they’ll be lucky to make a bowl.
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^^This. If Mullen is going to make a jump to UF or Michigan then he needs to do it after this year. His stock will never be higher than it is right now.
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My brother and alter ego, Missy State has been to 5 straight bowls. They are ranked number 1 in the nation. Sure, they lose most of their first teamers after this season. Bama loses most of their first teamers after every season either to graduation or the NFL. Remember in 2012 when all their OL left at one time. Do they fail to make bowls? Tell you what, I’ll bet that Mississippi State makes it to a Bowl for the 2015 season, you bet they don’t. The loser has to strip naked and run around Athens naked for 1/2 hour……Wait….we’re different personalities in the same body…..maybe that’s not such a good bet. Broadus Rickus and Smallus Dickus, two of the other personalities, are already kicking me internally to not do this bet. Ouch, ughh…STOP IT!!!
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Heh. That’s one of your funnier ones. But they’ve only been to four straight bowls so far. This year will be five. They’ve gone 9-4, 7-6, 8-5, and 7-6 the last four years. Maybe I’m overstating it a bit since they play absolutely nobody outside the conference and only need two conference wins, but I do think they are more likely to go 5-7 than 9-4 if Prescott goes pro. It’s actually possible they will go 0-8 in the conference next year assuming Kentucky and Arkansas continue to improve.
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What you describe is possible, theoretically, but only if Mullen leaves in addition to Prescott going to the NFL.
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Even if they pay players, i’m not sure how much that lessens the incentive because of the NFL’s rookie contract structure. I mean it’s 5 years before a lot of those guys are truly hitting paydirt, so the incentive is to go ahead and get into the NFL and get that clock ticking. Even guys who aren’t projected into the top rounds, I’m sure the agents are spinning that as a positive because guys in the lower rounds get shorter contracts so if they come in and exceed expectations (which EVERY player believes they will, realistic or not), they can actually hit paydirt sooner than the guys in the top rounds. That’s a very easy sell to a 21 year old kid that thinks he is invincible and sees dollar signs flashing before his eyes.
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Exactly. The NFL’s new structure is what has done this. Previously there was some value to waiting a year if you thought your draft stock might go from second or third round to first round, because that difference literally meant millions of dollars. That’s no longer the case, so the goal, as you said, is to get the clock ticking.
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Somewhere in a college town not far away…
Nick: “Son, we can see that you are NFL material.”
Third-string junior: “But coach, I haven’t had a single carry this season.”
Nick: “It’s the way you practice, workout, and prepare yourself for the game. Listen, I coached in the NFL. You are definately ready for the NFL.”
Third-string junior: “OK if you say so, coach.”
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A third string junior is not playing for a guy named Nick. He would have already been lost to medical hardship and his scholly given to a new young buck.
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+1 Solid point……all part of “the process”.
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Senator,
I don’t think anybody has lost, “18 underclassmen in a single draft”. The point is still good and well made though.
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Yeah, it was over two consecutive drafts, not one draft.
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There is some truth to this. That Boise State Team that whipped us at the beginning of 2011 had alot of 5th year seniors who had played together for a long time and never lost faith in each other. I think it is easier for schools like Boise and MSU to retain their players, but if there not getting recruiting classes like LSU & Bama, it falls apart real fast.
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Non-of those Boise players were highly recruited by big-name schools coming out of HS. They also, for the most part, were not NFL material. But they played really well together as a team and they were really well-coached. That’s how you get 2 and 3 star players to set a record for most wins over a 4 year period. That and not playing anybody who’s really good.
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ASU is a bad example too. They are playing a ton of freshmen.
The DAWGS have been depleted heavily by early entries as well…oh wait, no we’ve been hit hard by dismissals (of mostly underclassmen!). That’s how you build a power program
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At Georgia, the challenge is not maintaining its talent for a fourth year, it is maintaining its talent for a second year.
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If by “maintaining its talent for a second year” you mean keeping kids from getting kicked off the team or transferring I’d say +1 to that.
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Until the entrance requirements are raised to make football/basketball players actually be “student athletes”, the early leaving trend will continue and probably grow. If the NCAA would mandate that ALL scholarship athletes have GPAs and test scores equal to the lowest admitted non athlete freshmen and stop forcing colleges to be the de facto NFL farm system the vast majority of problems in college football would go away.
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Mr. JCAWG83…Reverend Jackson is holding for you on line one. Will you take his call?
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I get what you’re saying, but anyone with a real or potential financial stake in the current system isn’t going to like it. The NFL in particular is getting a free ride by not having to support a minor league and major conferences are earning too much money off their major sports programs to want to give up existing arrangements.
A lot of the guys on FB and BB teams shouldn’t and don’t want to be in college, they just want to play. A lot of them are entertaining enough to watch that universities aren’t likely to stop signing them, even if it compromises the schools’ academic mission. In other words, supplying television compelling content is much more lucrative than educating people.
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I really don’t think the university presidents would sacrifice the academic reputation for a good sports program. Of course, if that rule went into effect, there could be schools like USF, So Miss, etc that might decide to become sports factories. I can’t think of an SEC school outside of AU that would sacrifice the reputation and value of the degree to win on the football field.
If the NFL and NBA were forced to form farm leagues, the great players would go there and not bother with having to deal with college. I think the college game would be a little slower and the players would be smaller but they would still be competitive. College football would be like high school football on steroids. I think it would still be entertaining.
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We have discussed this elsewhere, and I totally agree..It’s a farce now. And we continue to buy in.
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Mississippi State is competitive because they have a good coach and a great quarterback who is perfect for the system.
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Yep. That and also the team was built by intelligent roster management over several years.
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“With all the juniors [leaving early], it’s really impacted the SEC and beyond,” Savage said. “Look at Alabama, LSU and Florida State. People are saying they’re not as dominant as they’ve been? How could they be? Sure, they have talent, but it takes time to get it all together.”
Doesn’t that final paragraph conflict with the entire article’s premise? With 3/4 of the season in the books, those 3 teams only have 4 losses between them. Appears players leaving early hasn’t had much effect at all.
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Saban’s model (IMO) is for folks to move along after three years. This year may wind up as a three-loss year or making the playoffs…or something in between. Doesn’t seem to me like the program is broken…yet.
State is solid and deserves all of their accolades so far, but…when Prescott and Mullen leave, they’ll regress to the mean. 🙂
BD
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QB Prescott put them over the top. Getting the tall, skinny, power forward/ TE prospect with a strong arm and growing him into a Hybrid QB is great when it happens but if it doesn’t sou can end up with a limp Driskel.
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Best thing is MSU got Prescott for less than it would have cost them to rent Can Newton.
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🙂
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Haha
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This is why Mullen should seriously consider an offer from Florida or another top tier program. Prescott is Mullen’s Herschel. If Miss St manages to win the SEC and/or the MNC, the bar will be set much higher in Starkeville and I think it will be a while before they will get back to this level.
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Miss State is a solid team except for their DBs, the one thing necessary to beat/limit Bama’s offense. Arky and LSU stopped Cooper and held the Tide to under 20. And that is why I think MSU goes down this Saturday in Tusky.
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Found this graphic while browsing:
http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/draft-history-graphic.htm
Shows that the state of Georgia only kept 1/3 of the players who went to high school in the state and went on to get drafted between 1988-2012 Compared to Florida, Texas and California who all hovered around 50%.
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Florida has three major programs and mutltiple smaller ones, similar to Texas and California. Georgia has UGA and Tech.
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And who wants to go to Tech?
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just glad i don’t live in starkvegas………..have dealt with depression in the past and don’t need anymore……..
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