Jerry Hinnen explains why you should like the over tomorrow.

Really, what’s not to like?

When it comes to predicting a game between one team that can both beat Missouri 34-0 and lose to Florida 38-20 in a matter of weeks and a second that’s basically college football Loki, your coinflip is as good as mine. The one thing that does seem certain is plenty of points — the average final score for these teams’ combined last six games is Winner 44, Loser 31, and that’s with decided non-offensive juggernauts like Ole Miss, Florida and Kentucky involved. This game, on the other hand, involves Todd Gurley and Hutson Mason facing the Auburn defense at home and Nick Marshall and Cameron Artis-Payne facing the same defense that allowed 418 rushing yards to Florida. Don’t expect punts.

I’m still having a hard time imagining how last team with the ball doesn’t win.

By the way, Jerry’s predicting a total of 86 points.  I can’t say he’s crazy.

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Advanced stats don’t lie.

Bill and Brian’s stats show Auburn comes in as the better team.

The stats indicate that Auburn’s offense will put up quite a few points on Saturday. Georgia’s 71st ranked rushing defense will be challenged by Auburn’s 11th ranked rushing offense. When Auburn’s top-ranked passing game looks to throw the ball Georgia’s secondary will be strained. Last week, Kentucky’s 33rd and 54th ranked rushing and passing rankings put up 250 total yards against Georgia in the first half. Cameron-Artis Payne and Nick Marshall have better wheels than any player in UK’s backfield.

Still, there is plenty to latch on to if you’re a Georgia fan.

Texas A&M’s defense is ranked 30 slots behind Georgia’s, and “held” Auburn’s offense to 38 points with the help of three turnovers. If Georgia can replicate that turnover success it stands a chance, and Georgia has been pretty good about causing turnovers while Auburn has had issues with ball security.

Georgia’s offense hasn’t missed a step the last few weeks when its star player was suspended, but this weekend “Gurley’s Comin” which may be enough for Georgia to maintain possession and keep pace with Auburn. Georgia’s top-ranked rushing offense should find success even against Auburn’s 10th ranked rushing defense. Meanwhile, Georgia’s passing offense has a distinct advantage versus Auburn’s secondary. Hutson Mason has had a great year throwing 15 touchdowns and only three interceptions.

It’s also worth noting that Georgia holds a big advantage in special teams, and returner Isaiah McKenzie could have a second great game in a row. If Georgia is able to break-off some big runs and improve its field position, it’s already strong offense will be even harder to stop.

The good thing from our standpoint is that the things Georgia needs to do to offer an equalizer – win the turnover battle and manage field position – are things this team has done well this season.  Most of the time.  As Larry would say, they just need to hunker down and do it once more.

Now, just go out and do it.

If there’s one huge positive to take away from the defense this year, it’s that at least there’s a united mindset evolving between the staff and the players.  We’re not hearing anything about complicated playbooks.  We’re not getting the sense that the coaches don’t trust the players to execute (which is not the same thing as recognizing the limits of your players’ abilities and scheming accordingly).  While there’s still the occasional outburst of unjustified happy talk, there’s also a refreshing sense that both the players and the coaches are willing to step up and accept responsibility for subpar effort.

No, that doesn’t translate into a shutdown defense.  But you aren’t going to improve if you’re not honest about what you’re doing first.  And you’re not going to get better if everyone isn’t working from the same page.

So I don’t think Damian Swann, who’s shown an impressive improvement in his game this season, is blowing smoke with this comment, as he and his mates prepare for Auburn:

“The Florida State tape ain’t got nothing to do with it. We believe in our coach. Our coach believes in us. As long as we’ve got that connection…we’ll be fine.”

How big a deal is Gurley’s return?

We’re all fired up about it, obviously.

It’s part of the reason Marc Weiszer gives Georgia an edge in intangibles tomorrow.

But then I think about this obvious comparison.

“I guess the best way I can answer that is how do people feel about A.J. Green around here,” Georgia coach Mark Richt said this week.

Green, like Gurley, was suspended four games in 2010 when he took $1,000 for a signed Independence Bowl jersey from a person the NCAA deemed an agent.

Since you brought it up, Coach, I can’t help but point out that Green’s return, while triumphant from a personal point of view, as it included one of the most remarkable catches of his career,

… didn’t turn out so well for the team, as Georgia lost to a mediocre Colorado team on the road.

I’m not saying that Weiszer’s wrong about the intangibles, as there are differences in the two situations – the biggest being that Gurley returns in a night home game against a big rival – but it’s worth keeping in mind that it’s not necessarily a slam dunk, either.

I guess you could say I still have a healthy respect for Gus’ rabbit’s foot.