Advanced stats don’t lie.

Bill and Brian’s stats show Auburn comes in as the better team.

The stats indicate that Auburn’s offense will put up quite a few points on Saturday. Georgia’s 71st ranked rushing defense will be challenged by Auburn’s 11th ranked rushing offense. When Auburn’s top-ranked passing game looks to throw the ball Georgia’s secondary will be strained. Last week, Kentucky’s 33rd and 54th ranked rushing and passing rankings put up 250 total yards against Georgia in the first half. Cameron-Artis Payne and Nick Marshall have better wheels than any player in UK’s backfield.

Still, there is plenty to latch on to if you’re a Georgia fan.

Texas A&M’s defense is ranked 30 slots behind Georgia’s, and “held” Auburn’s offense to 38 points with the help of three turnovers. If Georgia can replicate that turnover success it stands a chance, and Georgia has been pretty good about causing turnovers while Auburn has had issues with ball security.

Georgia’s offense hasn’t missed a step the last few weeks when its star player was suspended, but this weekend “Gurley’s Comin” which may be enough for Georgia to maintain possession and keep pace with Auburn. Georgia’s top-ranked rushing offense should find success even against Auburn’s 10th ranked rushing defense. Meanwhile, Georgia’s passing offense has a distinct advantage versus Auburn’s secondary. Hutson Mason has had a great year throwing 15 touchdowns and only three interceptions.

It’s also worth noting that Georgia holds a big advantage in special teams, and returner Isaiah McKenzie could have a second great game in a row. If Georgia is able to break-off some big runs and improve its field position, it’s already strong offense will be even harder to stop.

The good thing from our standpoint is that the things Georgia needs to do to offer an equalizer – win the turnover battle and manage field position – are things this team has done well this season.  Most of the time.  As Larry would say, they just need to hunker down and do it once more.

63 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

63 responses to “Advanced stats don’t lie.

  1. paul

    I think we have to match them score for score early. No settling for field goals. We cannot afford to get behind. Then we have to play for field position, create turnovers and/or get a stop or two late. As long as we don’t get behind we can win by having the ball last. Otherwise, I think we are in trouble. Two things bother me about this. Not settling for field goals isn’t really our personality and the crowd is going to have to stay engaged for the entire sixty minutes. Also not generally our personality. Both the team and the fans have to step up. Auburn is comfortable falling behind. They have confidence in their ability to come back. Georgia has a maddening tendency to let teams back into games they should win easily. This worries me greatly. Should we get ahead early, we have to go for the jugular. Once again, not really in our DNA. I may have to leave work early to start drinking.

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  2. Am I the only one who read this and felt bad about our chances? I think we lose either way, but this doesn’t leave me as much hope.

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  3. HahiraDawg

    I’m of the opinion that the winner is the one with the best second half defensive adjustments, as long as the game is within 7 either way at the half. I have zero confidence in our team if we are down more than 7 at the half and only slight reservation that Aub will come back on us should they be down by more than 7 at the break. But within that 14 point window, this game will be a strategic scheme game executed in a bloody slugfest by the beginning of the 3rd.

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  4. Temps at half time will be in high thirties. Coldest game we’ve played in. Be interesting to see how that affects the passing and kicking game.

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  5. am I the only person in the state that thinks we stomp a mudhole in their guts?

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  6. AusDawg85

    YOU GUYS!! DO YOU REALIZE WE HAVE TO WIN THIS GAME???

    8:00pm Saturday is an eternity away from now.

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    • Macallanlover

      I just hope the lights work, they haven’t been called on all year. Hate to lose on a forfeit, or trust playing that sleazy bunch in the dark! 🙂

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      • Careful Brad

        Mac,
        You probably don’t remember but you and I have had some disagreements here over the years, however I am loving what you are doing tonight. Calling everyone on BS. Truth is tomorrow could go any number of ways but I believe in the team, what is the fun otherwise? Go Dawgs!

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  7. Biggus Rickus

    I’m all over the place on this game. Part of me expects Georgia to shit the bed again. Part of me thinks Georgia may actually play lights out with Gurley back, the home crowd, and thoughts of last year’s game. The most rational part of me thinks both teams will move the ball up and down the field and someone will win 42-38 or something along those lines.

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  8. Macallanlover

    No matter how you slice and dice the stats on this matchup, it looks like just what everyone has been saying, a close shootout with the team that takes care of the ball, or finishes drives off with 7 points and not three will win. As a beauty contest, you would have to give AU the edge. From an intangibles take, it looks like UGA (home field, night game, Gurley return, 42 day pent up enthusiasm for crowd, last year’s weirdness at the end, and just more to gain for UGA with a W.) I hope Gurley isn’t so amped that he tries to do too much on his own, just do the TG thingy he always has. He has to be like a mean bull before they open the gate at the rodeos, patience lad, you are the best prove it over the whole game, not the first kickoff, run, or pass.

    In a “could go either way”, close game I tend to side with the home team. Looks like UGA to me because of the intangibles but agree that the Dawgs cannot get to far back and lose the crowd edge. Secure the ball, mix all the weapons we have on offense and not get too run biased, force a couple of TOs from them and we will all be celebrating by 11 o’clock.

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    • HahiraDawg

      “force a couple of TOs from them”

      Am I the only one that wants these to be from their passing game? I want Nick to look frazeled and make Gussy nervous about the air game. Make them one dimensional, of which they are still plenty potent (& looking at J-ville, we are plenty vulnerable), and we win.

      I actually thought that UF ran a version of Aub’s offense against us (minus the big, deep passes to Coates and Duke). At the time I was thinking that even though this sucks, it will give us film about how Auburn likes to attack via the run.

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      • HahiraDawg

        the first ‘e’ in frazzled was supposed to be a ‘z’. Too fast.

        I’m buzzed about this game. Can 5 o’clock come quicker today so I can start the Highland Park?

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  9. Cojones

    Some of you need to read some other hand-picked stats for breakfast in order to get a balanced meal. Try Weizer’s (could have been someone else) article yesterday about Hutson. It will make your second cup of coffee more satisfactory.

    This is not any different from past games with our mirror image teams battling it out at the end of the season. Richt has an 8-5 record against this bunch. Ellis doesn’t have the same player quality on D that he had at SC and it shows thus far.

    Can’t wait to see Hutson air it out because I think that Bobo has it big in the game plan. Look for Gurley and Chubb to fake into the line and then block to give Hutson the most time to find his target. The stars begin to align in the heavens. It should be a great game.

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  10. Noonan

    I hope the team is watching this:

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  11. LorenzoDawgriquez

    One thing I am sure of. If we don’t win, there will be an epic “fan” meltdown beyond anything we have experienced in a long time. Even the die-hard fan base really needs for something good to happen this weekend. That being the case, I am “Bulldog born and Bulldog bred”…..

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  12. Cojones

    Didn’t see the fan meltdown from the FU game. Of course it could have been the shock …..

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  13. Mayor

    Look, UGA under CMR is 8-5 against Auburn. If you look at some of the strange ways Auburn has won during that period (like last year, for example) the record should be even more one-sided than that. Georgia has the better team. The Vegas bookies have Georgia favored. Georgia WILL win this game.

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    • WF dawg

      Yeah, 01, 05, and 13 were all inexplicable, gut-wrenching 4Q losses. Along those lines, 02 and 08 were narrow 4Q wins. Me, I’m hoping for something more along the lines of 06.

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  14. Scorpio Jones, III

    Its gonna be cold, really cold, especially in the second half, all these stat sheets are gonna be nice and warm up in the press box.

    Neither team has much, if any, experience playing in temps down to or below freezing. Makes the ball heavier, little bumps hurt worse, getting your hand stepped on might send you to the bench for a while.

    The cold just adds to the unpredictable nature of the game.

    Running backs who don’t fumble might…receivers that normally catch the ball with their hands may not.

    It is not going to be Green Bay playoff kinda cold, but it could have a noticeable impact.

    Weather channel forecast is 30.

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  15. W Cobb Dawg

    Dawgs have their backs to the wall. Lose this game and forget about the secc. This is the kind of game where our coaches and team need to show everyone across the nation we deserve to be in the national championship discussion. Lose this game and we’re just another also-ran in the bottom half of the top 25. Whatta ya got Mark? – its time to prove we’re ‘man enough’ again.

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  16. I’m convinced. Anyone want my tickets?

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  17. Rp

    Shit, Aub’s kicker leads the conference in touchback %. Doesn’t cold weather limit kick distance?

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    • Dog in Fla

      “The vehicle involved in the accident driven by Ian Kieth, shown from Vehbidz, a website where totaled cars are auctioned for parts.”

      The victim’s car was totaled? There used to be a chop shop in Havana that could cut down any size radiator to fit into this one, Bondo® the right front quarter panel and stick in a used headlight. The fact that this can’t be done makes Jimbo want to dig his heart out with a spoon and serves as an embarrassment to all paint and body guys and others who like to huff fumes in Leon County.

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      • There was a shop on the corner of Ci Chillo and Reyo that sold old Chevy hoods/parts and Havana Club rum. There were other things to be had if you were a savvy guy. Interesting market mix.

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  18. But it looks like the Tallahassee PD does lie. Jimmy Williamson could be used there. For an F.S.U. Football Player, a Hit and Run Becomes Traffic Tickets – NYTimes.com (via http://ble.ac/teamstream-) http://teamstre.am/116QP55

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  19. Free Seafood has become the poster child for anti meth campaigns nationwide.

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