Overall odds: Georgia 77.9%, Missouri 22.1%.

Georgia’s in the SEC East clubhouse at 6-2 and Missouri is still out on the course with only one conference loss, but Bill Connelly says the odds are with the Dawgs.

… Mizzou has to win at Tennessee (probability: 39%) and Arkansas (57%) to stay ahead. Missouri goes 1-1 or 0-2, and Georgia goes to Atlanta.

The only thing about that is Missouri’s been a better road team – one that’s on a nine-game winning streak, in fact – than it’s been at home, where it’s lost to Indiana and gotten smoked by Georgia.

Then again, given the way the East has been this year, there’s probably no point in trying to make sense out of the situation.

53 Comments

Filed under SEC Football, Stats Geek!

53 responses to “Overall odds: Georgia 77.9%, Missouri 22.1%.

  1. Rick

    The shades of 2007 are almost too much to stomach. Anyone remember the mediocre Tennessee team that just had to lose once to punch our ticket?

    And their last minute 25-24 win over Vandy?

    Followed by their Overtime 52-50 win over Kentucky?

    I actually think this Mizzou team isn’t even as good as that UT team, but there could be some painful football ahead of us.

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  2. JCDAWG83

    It would be so nice to have a season when the team was good and we didn’t crap the bed a couple of times to force us to rely on someone else losing. Florida fired their coach and SC may not be bowl eligible but we managed to lose to both of them.

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  3. hassan

    When the season started, I predicted that Tennessee was going to be the reason somebody doesn’t go to Atlanta. I am hoping I am right.

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    • Will (The Other One)

      Based on the numbers, their D has improved a lot over the season, and Dobbs is probably even better than Worley.

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  4. No One Knows You're a Dawg

    Of course Bill knows Georgia football is where statistical probabilities go to die. Poor Phil Steele is at the point that he can’t even hear the word “Bulldog” without flinching.

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  5. DawgPhan

    So you are saying there is a chance.

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  6. StuDawg

    SEC Network gave Mizzou a 2% chance of winning out this morning. Something like 37% this week and 43% next week. I think their odds of losing out are greater than their odds of winning out.

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  7. Beakerdawg

    Dawg fans worst nightmare:
    Mizzou beats UT this weekend. Arkansas mounts a furious comeback in the 4th quarter only to lose in the last second on a sure 5 yr-go ahead-game winning TD pass to the wide open TE but inexplicably Steve Shaw’s Umpire waves his hands as the ball passes over his head and the ball drops harmlessly to the ground with a dumbfounded look by Bielema. Bulldog Nation groans, Bryan Allen strokes his jello stained gator tank top with glee and Steve Spurrier sips his final silver bullet for the evening and smiles.

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    • DC Weez

      Or Arkansas scores the winning touchdown only to have it nullified by an OL down field 2 yards.

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    • Cojones

      We need to throw the jello sale sign back in so that some who have forgotten or didn’t see that bird can enjoy “….jello stained gator tank top….”. Nice visual, but how could you tell since the jello was FU’s colors?

      I likes thou post.

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      • Beakerdawg

        Amendment to earlier post –
        “… jello stained white trailer trash gator tank top…”
        & “5 yd” instead of “…5yr”

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  8. Merk

    On the upside, both teams will be playing for bowl eligibility against Mizzou. That should give those teams a reason to show up, since both were not bowl eligible last season and both are on the upswing.

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    • Same thought had occurred to me. I agree it’s grounds for cautious optimism.

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      • Cojones

        Same here, but don’t think it will happen. Pinkel is my reasoning chip, unfortunately. Just something else to build up our angst and frustration that can’t be overcome by computer % predictions. This will be my downer prediction of the year. It’s done so that some fans don’t get too worked up and can go ahead and enjoy the final two season games just for the love of UGA and cfb.

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      • AusDawg85

        Maybe they’ll give Mizzou their best shot. Oh, damn….they already used them!

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    • Will (The Other One)

      True, but UT won’t be totally against a wall, what with ending their season vs a Vandy team that’s decidedly back to being Vandy.

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  9. We are what we are and we ain’t what we ain’t and either way we ain’t got no complaint.

    With all
    Aplogies to Ann Landers and that left wing Johnny Prine

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  10. Flukebucket

    When you leave your fate in the hands of others the only thing you can do is wait and squirm. I can’t imagine having to play Marshall in the damn Peach Bowl. Is that a serious possibility?

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    • PTC DAWG

      Yes, they seed teams into the 4 bowls not hosting semi finals this year…Cotton, Orange, Peach and Fiesta with geographical and conference affiliation kept in mind. Those 4 bowls I just mentioned will host semi’s over the next couple of years, I believe.

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      • Sanford222view

        Why are they saying Marshall then? They aren’t even ranked this week are they?

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        • Macallanlover

          The Committee ranks the Top 25 on Sunday, December 7th and the highest non-Power 5 team gets a major bowl spot assigned by the Committee, if none are ranked, they go back and rank the best non-Power 5 team and award the spot. It is the only time they rank beyond Top 25, and it may not be necessary as I would expect Marshall to be ranked before the final poll due to attrition from fall out in rivalry games the final two weeks.

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      • DawgPhan

        Given that marshall is not even ranked for the playoffs at this point, i doubt that they end up in one of those bowls.

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        • Cojones

          Saw that lineup as well as Ole Miss in the Orange. Think we may go there instead. If we do, I think we should flex our power and insist on tOSU as the opponent.

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        • Watchman

          Somebody has to get in by rule. If it’s not Marshall, it’s probably going to be Boise State. Colorado State is the other long shot, but they need a Boise loss. But somebody from the Little Sisters of the Poor conferences IS getting a seat at the big boys table.

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  11. Hogbody Spradlin

    Wouldn’t we get a better bowl if we win out and Mizzou loses the SECCG, than if we lose the SECCG? Cf. Florida 2012.

    Be assured I’m not advocating that scenario. Just cogitating possibilities.

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    • Dude, that is the better bowl. It’s a new world and the bowls you want to be in are the Cotton, Orange, Peach, and Fiesta if you ain’t in the play-offs. Think of those four, along with the Rose and Sugar as the BCS bowls now.

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  12. You want to see SEC fans heads explode when they announce the playoff?

    Consider this scenario:

    Missouri beats UT but loses the following weekend Friday to Arkansas which sends us to Atlanta.

    UGA relaxes on Saturday and we spit the bit against Tech.

    Auburn somehow regroups to beat Alabama in the Iron Bowl while Ole Miss waxes Miss St. in the Egg Bowl. I am pretty certain that clears the way for Ole Miss to represent the West in Atlanta.

    We regain our form in Atlanta and beat Ole Miss by double digits.

    The conference champion has 3 losses. Everyone else in the conference has minimum of two and the SEC is left out of the inaugural playoff. The top 4 are Oregon, FSU, Baylor, and Ohio St.

    Like