The advanced stats primer for Saturday

Here’s your handy chart summarizing Bill’s and Brian’s rankings for the Dawgs and Jackets:

Georgia and Georgia Tech Rankings
Measurement Georgia Georgia Tech
F+ Overall 6 (30.3%)   12 (24.6%)
F+ Offense 7 (16.5%)   1 (21.7%)
F+ Defense 23 (9.4%)   61 (0.3%)
F+ Special Teams 6 (4.4%)   17 (2.6%)
FEI Overall 3   6
S&P+ Overall 14   27
S&P+ Rushing Offense 1   7
S&P+ Rushing Defense 74   108
S&P+ Passing Offense 12   4
S&P+ Passing Defense 18   84

TSK says that indicates two fairly evenly matched teams, and I suppose there is something to that, with a couple of exceptions.  One is that while Tech’s rankings are good, Georgia’s, for the most part, are better.  And then there’s this…

Something interesting is how much better Georgia’s secondary has gotten in the last few weeks. A unit previously rated in the 70’s has risen up to 18th, after limiting Nick Marshall and Patrick Towles to 150 and 140 yards throwing respectively (Auburn’s ranked first and Kentucky 54th in S&P Passing Offense). That improvement will serve them well against Georgia Tech’s fourth rated S&P+ Passing Offense.

Tech’s passing defense, by comparison, is pretty bad.  Could Hutson Mason turn out to be a key to a game?  One good thing you can say about him is that he’s got experience as a starter beating Georgia Tech.

Still, what gives me the most hope for SIAR, B! is what Georgia’s defense did against Auburn.  If Pruitt is able to match that game plan and effort on Saturday, I’m liking my chances to walk out of Sanford Stadium a most happy camper.


Filed under Georgia Football, Georgia Tech Football, Stats Geek!

6 responses to “The advanced stats primer for Saturday

  1. Russ

    While I’m sure the Genius has a few tricks for us, the fact that we’ve played two option teams our last two games (and very successfully) bodes well in my mind. Plus, no way their defense can stop us. I think Mason has a big day, along with Chubb.


  2. Macallanlover

    My biggest concern is the power dive with the A back, if we limit that one phase of their offense, we can blow them out. Otherwise it will be a high scoring shootout which we should win, but not impressively, or without some moments of concern. Their defense cannot stop our offense, I have seen nothing this year that indicates they can. UGA will score 35+, would love to hold them to upper teens to mid-twenties. I think we cover the 12+, but I have had a horrible year as a handicapper and wouldn’t bet it. Last year shouldn’t have been close either, even with our injuries.


  3. Cojones

    That’s the thing, Mac. Last yr’s losing team (until we met tech), continued to carry through on the win streak sans QB, Rbs, WRs and a couple others. We have no concerns if the D doesn’t hold’em right off. The Hutson’s-Come-From-Behind Offense will come to form with all those holes pegged shut, plus a better ‘dozer O line. If Bobo’s part of the Big Machine is laser-focused, we should cheer until we are hoarse. Rumph and Mitchell will have a great day and so will Conley and Bennett. We may get an aerial show that leaves 8 differing receivers catching the ball while letting subs show their families that they really are on the team and not just wearing the uniform.

    While the D line may get chop blocked more than most, the linebackers should feast on gt QB. Look for Swann getting a couple of safety sacks that will intimidate their QB into a friggin’ frenzy of frustration.

    We will be able to ID their players after the game by their limp, not ours.


  4. We’ve done all of this with a stronger schedule. If Conley’s blood lust mentality permeates the entire team, 6:09 could be in jeopardy. Is Tech’s best win vs. Miami? Ours is clearly Auburn. Auburn > Miami. Tech’s win over Clemson was the best thing to happen because our guys know they can’t just roll their helmets out and win. As fans, we need to be at the Dawg Walk and at full throat by kickoff.

    It’s time to run this state again! SIAR, B!


  5. All of those stats are fine and they do indicate that both teams are close in all of those stats, but UGA did it against SEC competition and the gnats did it against the ACC. Team Rankings has us as the 13th most difficult schedule and tech as the 45th the year. As the article states we do have a slight edge in the stats above but IMO it came against much stiffer competition. We should swat the jackets fairly easily.
    42-27 Dawgs


  6. Senator, I thought you might find this interesting and something to address… I understand the cart before the horse, but interesting…