“If I went into a meeting and said, ‘Hey, this guy is five stars,’ I’d be fired.”

If even Tom Lemming says something like this,

“Take everything with a grain of salt and just enjoy it,’’ Lemming said. “It’s not an exact science.”

… maybe we should all take a deep breath as we head to signing day.

I would hope that coaches aren’t slavish devotees to the recruiting services, even as some fans are.  But let’s not act as if the recruiting rankings are totally without meaning.  Note that even in this Jon Solomon piece that tries to diminish the accuracy of ranking systems, he still winds up noting that,

Nine of the last 13 teams to finish No. 1 in Rivals.com’s rankings played for the national title within three years; seven went on to win the championship. The only exceptions, teams that did not go on to play for the title within three years of a No. 1 ranking, were USC in 2006 and 2010.

Alabama remains within a three-year window from its No. 1 recruiting rankings of 2013 and 2014. The Crimson Tide did reach the four-team College Football Playoff this past season and in the old BCS world would have played for the national title.

From 2011-14, Alabama, Ohio State and Florida State had the three best recruiting classes, according to Rivals. These are the teams that made the CFP last year: Alabama, Ohio State, Florida State and Oregon (No. 17 Rivals class). OSU just won the national title thanks to significant help from its second-ranked class of 2013.

24 Comments

Filed under Recruiting, Tom Lemming Is A Feminine Hygene Product

24 responses to ““If I went into a meeting and said, ‘Hey, this guy is five stars,’ I’d be fired.”

  1. Silver Britches

    I’d rather look at who else is recruiting the kid. It indicates which coaching staffs believe in him rather than what Lemming, Newburgh, or Carvell think about him.

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  2. Scorpio Jones, III

    If a kid has a bucket full of offers from name programs, he has a bunch of stars. And, the converse is true. The question, for me, is….which came first, the offers or the stars?

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    • DawgPhan

      might be a question for you, but on the whole is a irrelevant question. That he has the stars is all that matters.

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      • Scorpio Jones, III

        I am sorry, but my point is that stars are only an artifice tacked on by people who do not matter one whit. Stars are a commercial addition to the process.

        What matters, in my view, is that he has the offers from folks who have actually looked at the kid’s performance over time and are competent to judge his abilities and his potential.

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        • .Dash

          You realize that the people most competent to judge a kid’s talents are the ones working for the recruiting services, right? And that most of the time coaches are making decisions whether to offer a kid based off of those same services? Stars not only matter, they are backed up by years and years of stats that prove just how scarily accurate Rivals, 247, etc are.

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  3. Spike

    I can tell you from first hand experience. Do not trust Lemming.

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  4. I still, after 25+ years of these rankings I still do not know how a service figures a small school DB in middle Georgia is worthy of a one star higher ranking than a small school DB in Oklahoma

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    • Macallanlover

      Solid point, nor can they tell what is inside their head, or heart. Coaches look at so much more than the 40 times, and passing yards. Body development, attitude, and how they will fit into your needs are the most crucial to me. Certainly some of the athletic metrics are significant, but they must match up with other subjective factors that are not usually available to the recruiting groups. Add in the period of time from when you are making the decision (17 or 18 yo), to when they will leave you (23 yo) and you can see how so many athletes get missed….positively or negatively.

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      • pete

        Yep, remember the comment Pruitt made about something he looked for in his DB’s. Something about how they used their eyes I think.

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    • DawgPhan

      Probably because they go and watch the kids play. This isnt rocket science. They send guys around the country to watch kids play football. Then they watch tape. Then they compare what that kid can do against what another kid can do and what kids like him have done in the past.

      These recruiting services are just a single guy doling out stars based on his gut. It’s teams of people watching 1000’s of hours of tape on kids across the country.

      The fact that teams that recruit better play better is pretty indicative that they get it right a lot.

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      • Scorpio Jones, III

        Which is exactly my answer to your question above.

        So, well said. 🙂

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        • Scorpio Jones, III

          Wait….if you are saying the recruiting services have teams of people and watch thousands of hours of tape, then I do not agree.

          If you are saying the schools do this, then we agree.

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      • I reacted the same as Scorpio. Are you saying Jamie Newberg goes and watches Kids play, or are you saying college coaches watch a bunch of kids play?

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  5. Question: If Slayton goes to Auburn does that mean Auburn will beat the Dawgs? If he goes to UGA does that mean the Dawgs will beat Auburn.?.How Important Is any single player In the recruiting process?.

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  6. Scorpio Jones, III

    Wonder how many stars the Newbergians gave to Malcolm Butler of West Alabama University (where?)?????

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  7. stuckinred

    So, one of the smartest coaches in the universe, two natty’s and a supebowl and he throws on the goal line with one of the best running backs in the game. Shit happens.

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