It’s no secret ESPN wants the CFP to move the semifinals off New Year’s Eve to a more broadcast friendly January 2, and that the CFP folks are resisting the push.
So what happens if ESPN is correct in its concern about the ratings? I mean, it’s not just the date that may be an issue.
Of course, even if the semifinals were to move to Jan. 2 — or somehow stay on New Year’s Day — the numbers would be hard pressed to match last year. The Rose Bowl (14.8, 28.2M) and Sugar (15.2, 28.3M) bowls were the highest-rated and most-watched college football games since 2010, topping the previous four BCS championship games. A confluence of factors led the strong numbers, including the novelty of the playoffs and the high-profile nature of participants Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State and Oregon. Those will be difficult to replicate next season, regardless of the schedule.
I expect the “high-profile nature” of those games to repeat – that’s kind of the whole point to the structure of the CFP – but the novelty issue is obviously a different story. At some point the same people who felt the need to juice up college football’s postseason from the BCS to the CFP will get the shakes again, and then what? They’ll probably give in to the WWL on no longer competing with the ball dropping on Times Square (and why not, since this is about garnering a more broad-based national audience, anyway), but when even that doesn’t fix things, they’ll have little choice but to choose to take the next step.
When you’ve got postseason fever, there’s only one cure.