ESPN is in the throes of a serious schoolboy crush over the Tigers. Here’s a link to a piece observing that Schlabach has them sitting fourth in his preseason rankings, while another writer has them upsetting Ohio State and playing for the national title for the second time in three seasons. And Ed Aschoff has Auburn topping his SEC post-spring conference power rankings.
Maybe it’s nothin’ but the Dawg in me, but I’m not buying it.
My skepticism isn’t over the offense, at least not exactly. Malzahn knows what he’s doing and I expect Auburn to do just fine on that side of the ball. Sure, he’s breaking in a new quarterback, but Jeremy Johnson’s a talented thrower and after watching what Gus did with Chris Todd a few years ago, I don’t doubt that he’ll have Johnson playing well in 2015.
But here are my three doubts for Auburn this season:
- The neighborhood. Auburn plays in college football’s toughest division. Even if the rest of the schedule isn’t daunting – more on that in a second – that’s still six games to negotiate without a hiccup. Add that Georgia is a tough draw almost every year, regardless of where the game is played, and that’s a tough row to hoe just to get to Atlanta.
- The quarterback. It’s not that I don’t think Johnson will turn in a fine season. It’s that he’s not the kind of quarterback who’s taken Malzahn’s offense to the promised land. Unlike Cam or Marshall, he’s not going to beat you with his legs. Maybe it’ll turn out that won’t matter, but I’ll have to see it first.
- The defensive coordinator. This is from where most of the unbridled optimism over Auburn’s chances stems. Defensive coordinator with good reputation who couldn’t cut it as a head coach, and so returns to the DC ranks to kick some ass… where have we heard that before? Oh, yeah – that was the story about Boom’s predecessor, too. Maybe Muschamp is an enormous step up from Ellis Johnson. But I wonder if whatever improvement we see out of the Tigers defense this season will come more from getting a healthy Lawson back. A good pass rush has the benefit of making a coordinator look smarter.
All of which isn’t to say Auburn won’t do well this season. But as I look at this schedule, it doesn’t shout 11-1 at me. And I’m not convinced a two-loss SEC team will be playing for a national title this year.