With a little bit of luck

I know the immediate reaction to this post at Team Speed Kills about underachieving and overachieving teams in the SEC West will be “ooh, Arkansas”, but I can’t help but chuckle over Auburn’s eight wins zeroing out as a Pythagorean differential.  After all, isn’t that pretty much what we all said about the Tigers if Gus lost that ginormous rabbit’s foot of his?

25 Comments

Filed under Auburn's Cast of Thousands, Stats Geek!

25 responses to “With a little bit of luck

  1. JG Shellnutt

    Hopefully Alabama WILL lose 2 regular season games and hopefully one of them will be at the hands of the dawgs.

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    • CannonDawg

      Yes, let’s put away both Alabama and Auburn and face LSU in the SECCG. CMR’s held his own against the Bayou Boys (4-4), and I’d like our chances against them in Atlanta again. Note: Might could have been 5-3 if we’d only punted away from that damn Honey Badger!

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      • merk

        I think you mean caught the damn ball. We had 2 killer TD drops that resulted in 6 pts. Going in 21-7 or 21-0 would have been a heck of a lot better than 13-7.

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      • Macallanlover

        Think Richt is 3 and 2 against Bama. Dont really know who we might face in the Dome but we can play any of them, imo. We have grat coaching and talent, and we are a few breaks.

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      • Nate Dawg

        Also the damn AJ celebration game…

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      • simpl_matter

        …..or not had the phantom celebration penalty against AJ.

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  2. JCDAWG83

    I don’t put a lot of stock in “luck” as a factor in wins and losses. Over the years, I’ve noticed the well coached, talented teams tend to be the “lucky” ones too.

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    • Jack Klompus

      I’m typically with you on – “you make your own luck”, but sometimes the ball bounces the other way (see Chubb and Michel’s fumbles in the Ga Tech game). It’s also hard to deny that Malzahn had a lucky horseshoe up his ass two seasons ago.

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      • Let’s beat UT, Mizzou, and USCjr. The rest will take care of itself

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      • JCDAWG83

        Fumbles didn’t cost the tech game, pastor pooch kick did. Agree about Malzahn, but our dbs not knocking the ball down (and our coaches not reminding them to during the timeout) put his player in position to benefit. Malzahn also really benefited from Saban’s fg try in their game. Bama’s kicker had been terrible all game, I think it was a mistake for Saban to try a long fg and Auburn took advantage of the mistake. Malzahn did a good job of having his players believe they were going to win every game, so they played hard for the entire game and looked for any chance to make a play.

        I’ve always prescribed to the “luck is when preparation meets opportunity” theory. Dooley’s teams always seemed to get lucky late in games. In reality, Dooley did a great job of having his teams play for 60 minutes, so they were in position to take advantage of the opportunities the opponent gave them.

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        • RocketDawg

          I am wondering if you had Lasik for that 20/20 hindsight or if you use contacts?

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          • JCDAWG83

            Don’t need hindsight for obvious mistakes, knew those were blunders when I saw them the first time.

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            • Irwin R. Fletcher

              It’s amazing you know more than Richt and Saban combined and yet are providing that info exclusively online in comment threads instead of at the D1 level.

              Luck is something that ‘Math’ proves is real, but your cliche’ phrase is probably a better source.

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            • Uglydawg

              Those two fumbles represented 14 points lost..PLUS long GT drives that wore down the defense and put the Dawgs behind the 8 ball in the fourth and in OT…The best team didn’t win. The best coach didn’t win. The team and the coach that got luckiy as hell won…As far as fumbles and knocking balls down (Auburn) instead of trying to intercept..those were mistakes of Georgia’s own making..but GT made a HUGE mistake when their QB rolled out to scramble and put the ball on the ground to give UGA it’s go ahead drive. Those things are “luck” and although they can be controlled and lessene to a great extent..they’re still going to happen. When they do…you either got lucky or unlucky.
              But JCDAWG83…I’ve been following this blog and you for a long time. If UGA runs the table and wins it all this year..you’re going to say it WAS luck.

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              • JCDAWG83

                Absolutely not, if we run the table, or even win and SEC championship, I’ll say Richt did a great job. There is no way to do either one of those things without doing a great job.

                You are correct about the best team not winning, but you are wrong about luck. You said the tech qb made a mistake, that is not luck, Georgia getting the ball and taking the lead is taking advantage of a mistake, not luck. You even say not knocking the ball down was a Georgia mistake, true, it’s not luck, it’s a mistake by Georgia. Luck is the coin toss, luck is the ball bouncing directly to a player, luck is a statistical outcome not a result of a player or coach’s decision or action.

                I don’t know if the best coach won or not. One could argue that the coach with the demonstrably inferior talent (Johnson) beating a team with superior talent (Georgia) did the better coaching job.

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        • Charles

          “pastor pooch kick”

          Sigh.

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        • If you lead your point with an insult to somebody’s religious beliefs that has literally ZERO to do with your point of contention, that says more about you than them. The Senator may not be bored with you, but you sure as shit know how to beat the crap out of a dead horse.

          In summation… /fart noise

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            • Uglydawg

              So true AuditDawg. When one runs a man down because he holds higher moral or religious standards than they themselves want to adhere to…you can kind of understand…though certainly not approve…of how their mind works
              I’m no saint..but I admire those who are working so hard to do right.
              But nothing I can say here makes the point as well as you just did.

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  3. dudemankind

    Where can I find last years statistics on team luck? Is it an overall all team stat, or do they break it down for defense, offense and special teams? Just wondering since Athlon never seems to put that one in the mag. Wonder why?

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  4. Saxondawg

    Once I see something like “pastor pooch kick,” I mark the poster “disregard in future” in my mind.

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  5. Spike

    ^^^^^ This. I’m with Saxondawg. JC should get a room with St, Simons.

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    • Macallanlover

      Yep, totally blinded by his agenda. We got ’em by the dozens, fortunately I only run into a few of them in person…only one in my group.

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