Daily Archives: July 27, 2015

Point spreads and power ratings

Chase Stuart goes through a little exercise each preseason that I find useful in terms of evaluating opening betting lines.  He takes the Golden Nugget point spreads and runs them though his Simple Rating System (SRS) to rank the teams by the results.

The 2015 preseason SRS rankings are here.  And you can see Vegas ain’t buying the “SEC is dead” talk.  Five of the top ten teams, seven of the top fourteen, eight of the top eighteen and ten of the top twenty five are from the SEC.

There are seventy teams that had enough lines published to make the rankings.  Georgia plays nine of those, five being in the top twenty.

Don’t read too much into this.  As he notes, “The methodology may be somewhat complicated, but all these ratings are intended to do is quantify public perception.”  It matters as much as you think the Golden Nugget knows what it’s doing.

Besides, it’s still July.

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Mr. Conventional Wisdom’s got the SEC’s back.

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