Advanced stats ❤ the Bulldogs.

Georgia shows up third in Bill Connelly’s initial S&P+ projections for 2015.

Er, that’s third nationally.  (Second in the conference, behind Alabama.)

31 Comments

Filed under Georgia Football, Stats Geek!

31 responses to “Advanced stats ❤ the Bulldogs.

  1. IAmAChubbyMan

    This isn’t good for managing expectations. These projections and a quarter will get you a cup of coffee.

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  2. 69Dawg

    I’m still looking for the stat that incorporates the “face plant” factor.

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    • Reservoir Dawg

      There’s that Disney Dawg factor right there…

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      • This makes me more nervous than the article about us(the Dawgs) having no one suspended because of off field conduct (yet). Does this set of stats have a way of calculating regression to the mean (i.e. running out of luck) ?As pointed out above , it means that anything less than a playoff berth will result in analysis that proves once again Coach Richt went to sleep/face planted/failed to motivate his team/mismanaged special teams/had yet another inexplicable loss…. take your pick. I always prefer it when the Dawgs are picked mid-teens. Kids(the players) read their own headlines and absolutely become harder to motivate. We’re doomed to not meet these expectations. Eeyore is right…Keep Calm and Gloom on.

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    • Will (The Other One)

      I mean, we were #4 or 5 last year, so I’m not as sold as these metrics as I am of say OPS being a better indicator of a hitter’s value than batting average.

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  3. how early is too early for the “underachiever” crowd to come out

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    • Macallanlover

      Hard to ever really feel good about things when you wear Red and Black isn’t it? You have to envy the above average team that celebrate just being mentioned where we are almost every year. What would it be like to enjoy the anticipation of something positive without the doom and gloomers bringing their own special way of being the turd in the punchbowl?

      Lot of positive mo with our program: great talent, terrific staff on hand, players healthy, admin finally behind the program—so many nice things being said about us but we wait for the other shoe to drop. I know we have a couple of position questions to answer yet but if you cannot be optimistic about the approaching season at this time of the year with all the check marks we have in the + column, you really should do yourself a favor and find another passion. I will say that if we can stop the middle run game, we will likely win the SEC.

      On the questionable side, I do think Bama is in for a tougher time than others think. They have a tremendous front 7 and a great punter, the best we will play all year, imo, but the secondary and offensive side is going to struggle. I am not saying they won’t win the West, but it would be a slight surprise to me.

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      • Mayor

        Regarding Bama, I agree with your assessment, Mac. It would not surprise me at all if another West team won that division and quite possibly one that hasn’t won it for a while–like, say, Arkansas or one of the Mississippi schools. A&M is a possibility but is rebuilding, Auburn doesn’t have the horses and LSU is without a QB so I don’t think any of those will do it.

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        • JCDAWG83

          I think Bama wins the West by process of elimination. Every other West team has some serious flaw or shortcoming. LSU/qb, A&M/rebuilding, Ark/hasn’t really won any SEC games in several years, Miss schools/depth and talent issues, Auburn/qb and overall talent. Bama may have some questions this year, but I think their overall talent level and depth from all of those top ranked recruiting classes gives them the margin of error to win the West. If a team is going to only have one strength, the front 7 is a good one to have. Bama doesn’t really have a huge hole in the roster where they are really suffering from a talent problem.

          On paper, the East is ours to lose. Of course, that’s been the case for several years now. If, and it’s a big if, we can avoid the face plant game and the coaching blunders, we should be in Atlanta the first weekend in December. For this season, I’d take the #3 spot and be perfectly happy.

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          • Cojones

            What’s with this LSU/QB issue? Jennings is back on the team and practicing again. While he was gone , some say the other QB gained some ground with the WRs. Sounds like UGA where two QBs are competing, one with some game experience and the other trying to take over. If Les Miles isn’t worried about it, then neither should you.

            LSU is going to poke some teams in a hard way before they get better as the season progresses, just like UGA.

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            • GaBoi 3000

              I don’t think having Jennings back is gonna help LSU. Those guys just can’t get it clicking at qb for whatever reason. I just don’t understand how a team like LSU can’t go out and get a decent qb. We gift wrapped the last good qb they had in Mettenburger.

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        • Macallanlover

          I think Arkansas is legit, need to address their D but I think everyone is overlooking LSU. When have they needed a QB? They have a solid OL with a great RB behind it, excellent secondary and fast, strong athletes on the defensive front. May not have the big names they have had in the past but they always have talent and, for once, they didn’t lose anyone early to the NFL. They are just one of the top contenders but I expect them to be in the tie at the top. Love that they have Auburn early in Red Stick, we will learn a lot about both that day.

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          • Will (The Other One)

            They could have used a QB several times last season…but they also lost Chavis and replaced him with a DC last season coaching a D that gave up 70 points to WVU.
            I think Ole Miss, Arky, or TAMU (assuming Chavis gets the defense to just average levels they could be close to the 2012 team) could surprise some folks. But also if neither Alabama team is in the hunt late, the Finebaum calls will be priceless.

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      • CannonDawg

        There is a lot to be encouraged about, a helluva lot. There are more pieces in place throughout the entirety of the program than at any recent time in my recollection. It’s all out there for the taking this year, and I can’t see why we don’t have as good a chance at a championship as anyone else. And the difference this year seems to me to be those aforementioned pieces (talent, depth, health, coaching, admin, etc) falling into place in what may be just the right time. There will be those times during the season when we’ll have occasion to mismanage the clock or miss a tackle or take a stupid penalty that might cost us a key win, but there’s also the chance that we’ll be able to either avoid or overcome those unforced errors and win anyway. I’m a little edgy about reversing our history in that regard, but I remain hopeful that we’ll finally push through that. We’re really not that far away.

        In any event, we’ll know soon.

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  4. VoxDawg

    In fairness, LSU has cleared Anthony Jennings and his compatriots in the PlaystationGate scandal.

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  5. Dave

    Is it more fun to see us 3rd or that other team 29th?

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  6. PTC DAWG

    IF we get a shot in the Dome…that’s all I can ask for. Got to be there to win anything.

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  7. Uglydawg

    Interesting stuff..but just stuff. So many other factors such as coaching staff changes, team chemistry..but it’s interesting stuff.
    I think ‘Bama is getting too much credit for being ‘Bama…and we need Michigan to get back to being a force so that OSU doesn’t get to cakewalk itself into the final four.

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    • JCDAWG83

      Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State all need to step it up a few notches. OSU is sort of like FSU in the 90s and early 2000s, they are the giant in a conference full of midgets.

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      • Debby Balcer

        I am ready for football to begin. Praying for no injuries during camp or the season. I’ll take 3 to start.

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        • JCDAWG83

          Absolutely, can’t get here soon enough. Hope we can get through camp without losing anyone for the season. That’s been a problem in the past. We don’t have the quality depth at some positions to take many injuries. I really hope Keith Marshall can have the year he’s deserved to have. Go to YouTube and watch his highlights and you’ll see how good he can be. It’s also time for Malcolm Mitchell to have a breakout year.

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  8. John

    I’m not criticizing, but you know you posted a link to this back when Connelly wrote it in May, right? https://blutarsky.wordpress.com/2015/05/20/well-georgia-being-third-is-surprising/

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  9. The Hand of God

    This is completely irrelevant, but has anyone figured out how Hugh Freeze is doing it? Mississippi? 80% of your team is African-Amercian and they still have a “plantation looking southerner” as their mascot. Senator, you’re an attorney, any way we could put an open record request for the transcript of the phone call between Freeze and Richt on Tunsil? Be fascinating reading.

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  10. Russ

    And if we finished that way, we’d have people calling for a change of coaches, because mediocrity and all that.

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