Rrr-rematch!

I’ve seen/heard plenty of folks express the sentiment that they’d prefer to see Georgia lose in the regular season to one of the two Alabama teams, were they to face off again in the SECCG, because it’s so tough to win again.

But you know what?  It turns out there have been six such games in Atlanta – and five of those saw the regular season winners win again.

31 Comments

Filed under SEC Football

31 responses to “Rrr-rematch!

  1. Will (The Other One)

    Exactly half of those rematches turned into blowouts the second time around too.

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  2. Rick

    Leaving aside the empirical evidence…this is not how independent probabalistic events work. If you flip a coin 10 times and 10 times it comes up heads, the probability that it will come up heads the 11th time is……..50%.

    Yes, it’s hard to win a tough game twice. But if you have already won it once, then it’s no harder to win it the second time.

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    • etdawg

      Assuming both teams are equal. Too many variables at play to say each game is a fifty-fifty chance of winning.

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      • Rick

        I’m not making that assumption, and fully agree that the odds are almost NEVER 50/50. That only strengthens the point that if you lost the first time, you aren’t magically more likely to win the second time, and in fact you are less likely to win because odds are you either aren’t as good as the other team or simply don’t match up well.

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        • DawgPhan

          I dont think that you can consider football games independent trials.

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          • Rick

            Perhaps not, but would any of the dependencies favor the loser? Is the loser likely to learn more about the other teams weaknesses (it seems like the winner probably has a head start there)? Is the loser less likely to sustain injuries between games?

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            • Mayor

              The reality is, while this is a small sample size, the principle is correct. The team that wins the first game will usually win the second because in college football the best team usually wins. So the team that wins the first game is probably the better of the two teams. I wish someone would research this more.

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  3. mp

    I think it arises from folks trying to find an interesting nugget and completely misunderstanding conditional probability. If you don’t overthink it and recognize that a team winning is usually a sign that it is “better” (with some variance for luck in a given game), that better team winning again is not surprising at all.

    The NFL-analogy is trying to beat a divisional rival three times in a season if they meet in the playoffs. More likely than not that team that’s gone 2-0 will succeed in getting the third win (particularly if their better record results in home field advantage).

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  4. McTyre

    Interesting. One stat that reveals a key shortcoming of the program since the last SEC title is that we have averaged 2 SEC EAST losses per year. Beating Auburn, Bama or LSU is great, but not in exchange for a face-plant vs Division foes. First things first.

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    • JCDAWG83

      Yep, if we would simply start winning the games we are favored to win, we will enjoy a lot more trips to Atlanta in early December. The classic “wtf?” games have become a staple of Georgia football.

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      • The Dawg abides

        Wow, that’s insightful. Good to see someone bring in a fresh point of view.

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        • JCDAWG83

          You would think something so simple would have occurred to the coaches by now, wouldn’t you? Apparently, judging by performance on the field, it has totally escaped their notice.

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        • Macallanlover

          Insightful look into the mind of obsessed negatrons/anchors, what good is that? He is the most predictable, guaranteed result there is….and not in a good way when it comes to UGA’s future.

          As to the topic, take everything down in sight, go into every game to win, and don’t believe in kharmic happenings. Dawgs do well at that, good chance we do even better this year because our talent is better and we have a great staff. Certainly due for a few breaks to fall our way but we do it on our own.

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          • Macallanlover

            For the record, I don’t think there will be a rematch, I just don’t think either AU or Bama wins the West although it is a tossup that would have to include them as possibilities. If UGA beats both of them, it will be tough for them to make it to Atlanta.

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            • Mayor

              Agreed, Mac. I think the West champion likely will be a different team this year. Bama and Auburn lose to UGA. Then one of them beats the other and that winner loses another game to another West team. Auburn and Bama both go 6-2. I’m picking Arkansas to win the West at 7-1 with their sole conference loss coming at Bama and their big wins coming at LSU and against Auburn at home.

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  5. PTC DAWG

    I know one thing, you have to get to the dome in September to win it. I don’t care how we get there..just get there.

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  6. No, I would NOT prefer to lose to Bammer Between the hedges. Smh at anyone that does!

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  7. I Wanna Red Cup

    What the hell. Lets just win every damn game.

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    • 81Dog

      I like where your head is at on this.

      The whole “I want us to lose because we might not beat them twice” thing is way overthinking it to me. Ask yourself, “what would Erk Russell say about such a mealy mouthed approach?” Erk would say win today, win later, there is no alternative plan.

      Sheesh.

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  8. PansyTheDawg

    I am stuck between a rock and a hard place. I’ve wanted to see my Bulldogs take on those Crimson Elephant folk again in Sanford since 2008, but now I only need to take two classes to graduate. If I go over 6 credit hours, it’ll cost me more money, but I can’t get my season package without going over 6. Woe is me.

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  9. Hobnail_Boot

    What sticks out to me is there has never been an SECCG between permanent divisional rivals. No UGA-Auburn, no UT-Alabama, no UF-LSU, and no Vanderbilt-Ole Miss.

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  10. They has never been injury from blow fly attack at the SECCG either.

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  11. As a poster who has repeated expressed concern about whether or not beating Alabama at home is strategically a wise move it is not that I want us to lose …ever…it is more a comment on play-off football. Because the Bama game is inter-divisional not intra-divisional it really doesn’t matter near as much as UGA/UT( or any other divisional game). If I have choice between beating Bama at home and then losing to the hillbillies the next week (because we have gotten the proverbial big head)and losing to Bama and beating Butch’s boy’s ,I’ll pick the latter. Control what you can control(i.e. winning the East) and let the rest take care of itself. Again I’d rather have Satan having to deal with the overconfidence problem in the SECCG rather than us. Lies ,damn lies and statistics. Now,get off my lawn you damn whippersnappers.

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